Froze were the Days

Yes let's see if this winter after it's autopsy will be far from 'a damp squib' as you suggested a few weeks back! gfs had been p-poor at picking trends in January and now another 'possible' tease showing up towards FI...I'll only be interested when we get to near a week away and even then the banana skin is waiting

Just chomp on that +NAO and taste the wholesome repetitiveness...there ain't nothing else on the menu for the remainder of this Winter, us coldies have all been short changed but sadly not for the last time.

Since when did we get Ice in November?...the first Ice I've seen on birdbaths etc. was in January, but agreed a terrible winter for chasing any cold or snow.

Just seen this on the latest 1 monthly run on the CFS (Comedy forecasting system) - that's the -18c isotherm just off the East Coast (Chortle!)

Very interesting! exactly the same here, I've been recording daily Winter records that go back to 1983/84 and last Winter I finally made the decision to stop doing them and just jotted down an analysis of each month (and noteworthy days) on the back of many recent winters with little variation or cold spells, saying that last February's cold week was probably the coldest here in Essex for daily maxes going back to Jan 1997 and I did think to myself if I should carry on...this winter has proved me correct.

This winter looks dead in the water in terms of seeing any deep cold...models are just spewing out +NAO runs now, the odd Pm air mass thrown in but nothing out of the ordinary. Roll on Spring!

Still waiting for the first 'hard' frost here this winter considering we've had HP not too far from these shores...just shows there has been no cold air mass within the high pressure. Other than that many useable dry days this month which has been far better in my neck of the woods to the misery of last January.

I take it you didn't get much last February?...a bit of an over exaggeration about the easterlies since late 80's if you don't mind me saying: 2002 and 2003 had a very brief day or so, 2009/10 had a few spells, Dec 2010 (more of a GH episode), 2012 here in the east (not sure if you were effected in Sussex), 2013 easterlies of sorts in Jan and Feb, Feb/Mar 2018 and last Feb, so never mind the 90's! unless you have a lot of fingers But yes they are a rare beast particularly in January - the last time I experienced snow on the ground in this month was 2013 which really is poor.

Very monotonous from the ECM...so nothings changed! just the odd passing Pm slot with lows getting to our north east but with little influence as that High is still not far away. Will be interesting to see the pressure anomaly so far for this winter, a black hole just to our south west?

Yawn! +NAO continues with the high relaxing southwards into the foreseeable! maybe some Pm air and more interest for the north.

and the +NAO keeps going and going! relentless.

I was actually going to add that to my post...my bets are on a wet February and March.

What a bore-fest our weather has become! nothing in the slightest to look forward to in the week or so ahead and then it looks like the return of the Atlantic towards February (which is meant to be one of the quieter months), Oh well at least it's been dry this month. Last 6 months or so our weather has been mundane...only Storm Arwen back in late November was notable, Summer was very average, August was non-descript, a mild Autumn (warm September), a mild December and another snowless January in my back yard (nothing since 2013). Next thing come Spring we'll be chasing the 'hunt for T-storms' which will largely be non-existent through the summer months as well. One thing for sure GW isn't making the weather more exciting in this part of the world.

Last notable snowfall in my neck of the woods (and that wasn't that much) in a January was back in 2013 nearly a decade a go!!...and that coincided with a SSW - says it all about Winters, use to be the Lion and now has turned into a tabby.

Personally feel that teleconnections don't mean a lot now days now global warming is in full steam ahead mode with the warmer continents and sea surface temperatures...not even sure about the impacts of sunspots any more.

I think we're squeezing about as much continental influence out of that run as we can muster...I for one won't be expecting upgrades on that. This period 'could' be the last colder than average days for sometime if that D10 or near to verifies - sadly getting the feeling the ecm doesn't want to know about a cold start to February.

I have to say if cold and the chance of snow is your thing (as many on here) this is becoming incredibly tedious model watching...if anything GFS is now pushing away from amplification to something more Atlantic dominated towards FI and the ECM well...more of the same. Yawn!

Yeah but it's waxing and waning between a slightly more amplified high pressure and a flatter one from run to run...latest 12z looks okay if you like dry fairly chilly conditions with some frost particularly by Thursday/Friday - not the worst of conditions at this time of the year. Last January was dreadful here with lots of rain and minor flooding so...just lacking any real exciting cold synoptics for a number of weeks now, something will change by months end, whether it's good or bad we'll have to wait and see.

Nor do I, but in general I know which model will be the least accurate at that range!

and most likely to be not far off the mark...somehow I have no confidence on what the gfs runs are saying after approximately D7-8.

Legritter - don't bother looking at the 0z ecm it's very underwhelming (as it has been all winter, but probably not far off the money)...trying to bring the Atlantic back in by D10.

Nice sunny days for once makes you feel so much more alive than the usual drizzly dull nonsense we usually get! Sadly though we seem some way off receiving what us 'coldies' want, no surprise as the last January in my local that received anything notable in terms of the white stuff was way back in 2013...really poor but sign of the times.

Pretty poor operational runs this morning, yes some inversion cold at times and by the looks of it fairly dry for the foreseeable but for snow chances for the rest of the month it looks a write-off in my opinion! Another blank January (IMBY) looks like passing! If we're in this locked pattern come the start of Feb it will be interesting where we go from there...I for one would be surprised to see a kick start from the Atlantic though these shores.

Yes fairly negligible differences but 0z and 12z seem to be the somewhat more reliable, I know one thing for sure if you didn't follow the GFS you'd wonder what the commotion was about half the time chasing a cold spell.

Really!?! pub run has same verification rate as the 12z? most of the runs must be dismal then!