snowstorm445
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Posts posted by snowstorm445
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Indeed, the cold air continues to be pushed eastward. Very brief window of opportunity across Ireland, although -8 uppers are still decent for this time of year.Two very cold days on the ECM, excluding Ireland
Could be very chilly and potentially wintry across Scotland and Northern England this weekend.
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Looks good for anyone seeking cold, frosty nights and settled weather. Certainly no zonal muck returning soon.
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The latest GFS certainly isn't bad if your after cold and frosty weather. Yes, there aren't any cold uppers and little in the way of wintry precipitation, but it looks like we may see some cold and frosty nights ahead, and fairly benign weather as well. Overall, a fairly decent and settled winter spell, with no return to Atlantic zonal weather in the reliable timeframe.
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A very interesting set up, especially for next week, although it looks largely dry across much of Ireland during the middle of the week (away from the north and west coasts). Its looking decidedly chilly in many areas by night, down to about -5C in my part of the world! :DAlso, to any stargazers among you, Comet Ison will become easily visible in the night sky over the coming week, peaking around the 28th (reaching negative magnitude and possibly as bright as Venus). There'll be plenty of clear skies across the country next week, so there's ample opportunity for those of you who want to get a good look.
I live in hope.Looking good alright. But I won't believe it until 3/4 days before. Then we need to watch longevity, and even that is starting to look a bit more solid now. We got nowt from last winter here on the east coast, but if the NWP were to come off largely, I reckon even our pal Snowstorm445 in Cork would see some settling white stuff!!!
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Yep. Last winter, the reliable timeframe could be as short as 72 or even 48 hours. Just look at THAT ECM which sent Netweather coldies into a frenzy and would have seen raging easterlies across the UK and Ireland but vanished only 4 days or so before it was forecasted to take place.Although to be fair, the GFS tends to favour zonal weather, especially out towards FI, so its certainly not unheard of to see it going against the ECM and other models for long periods of time.I think the GFS is the model that usually takes longer to come on board with these colder spells? I'm sure last Winter sometimes it was 48 hours before a snow event that it finally agreed with the others.
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Fairly wet and mild here today, although last night was very clear and reasonably chilly. Looking forward to some interesting weather towards the end of the month hopefully (not that we'll be getting that much down here). I'd say high ground in the north and east should fare well if the cold snap comes to fruition, perhaps even lower levels may see some of the white stuff if we're lucky.
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Great model output this evening, some very positive developments in terms of cold weather. In my experience of model-watching, its not uncommon to have a fly in the ointment or two in the run up to a cold spell. You will often get the odd model which will go its own way, we'll just have to see how that develops. AFAIK, the GFS in particular is quite poor at dealing with long-range weather.
I could be wrong, they could all revert to Bartlett by tomorrow morning, that's just the nature of model-watching! To newbies who may be unfamiliar with winter discussion on Netweather, you'll probably be seeing a lot of this sort of excruciating yet thrilling synoptic all drama over the next few months. I guarantee you though that it wouldn't be nearly as interesting without the roller-coaster experience.
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One of the best snow spells IMO prior to the cold winters of 2009/10/11, early January 2008. It only lasted for a day or two IIRC, but it brought heavy snowfall and thundersnow to my town near Dublin, which fell for nearly 6 or 7 hours non-stop with about 6 inches accumulating by morning. Lovely.
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I always look forward to winter, I generally prefer cold to warmth (although I do love hot dry summers). Although I enjoy cold snowy weather the most, I personally don't mind mild temperatures either, provided that it isn't damp and wet (which is usually the case with any mild spell), and the sunshine and comfortable temperatures can be quite nice. I really can't stand murky mild muck, its just so uneventful and depressing IMO. Of course given the prevailing south-westerly wind, mild wet weather will always predominate during most winters, so we should always expect to see some days (or even weeks) with such weather. I do generally enjoy mild, clear nights, since given the time of years and the length of the nights, its the best time of year for stargazing. If its mild, you don't have to wrap up as much going out. That said, nothing beats a good snowy cold snap (although Big Freezes can get quite tiresome after about a week or two, especially down here where snow is generally not widespread but cold, bitter wind and temperatures often are).
What does really drives me round the bend is the fickle nature of model watching. I know they say the models can't handle the unstable winter weather patterns, and that you should only view general trends, but the highs and lows of each output, and the lack of agreement from different models, can send hopes soaring and crashing in a matter of hours. Its not so much of a problem in summer for me personally, as I don't tend to crave heatwaves, even though I do enjoy them when they occur.
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More of the same essentially. I'm beginning to think that Madden forecasts are essentially rinse and repeats ad infinitum, with the year being the only actual difference between the forecasts.a james madden special i just wish i could believe him but sadly i cant hes a fruit cake sometimes, record breaking eh
The remainder of autumn is likely to bring a somewhat cooler theme at times, after a relatively warm to average month for September overall. A number of large scale low pressure systems and hurricane remnants are also possible in September and October, and many parts of the country can expect some extremely stormy conditions that will be accompanied by some very strong winds, which may range between 80-100 MPH in some areas. October is likely to bring the risk of some early snowfall for the second consecutive year, before a potentially record-breaking month in November, that is likely to see the development of some major snow and cold episodes. This will become especially more apparent in the northern half of the country and Scotland, although parts of southern England can also expect to see some early snowfalls throughout the upcoming autumn period too.
"The winter of [insert current year] is going to be cold with incessant snowfall everywhere and record-breaking cold temperatures. BTW, the summer of [insert following year] will also be cooler than average, with floods and rain everywhere. Also, be advised that if this forecast is completely wrong (it often is), it will still be 100% accurate because it included the words rain and mild in there somewhere, apparently."
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Its been a good week here so far, plenty of good sunshine. Things will get markedly colder though overnight and into tomorrow, although any rain should be fairly light and scattered, at least until the weekend. Some chilly nights ahead as well, temps could fall to the low single figures in parts of the north and west. We may well see the first frosts of the season over the coming few days.
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Well after a blip this weekend, the charts are pointing to settled weather returning during next week, with high pressure never very far away. Temperatures look like they will fall to more comfortable, seasonal level as well, but the pleasant weather should continue for another week at least, keeping the damp Atlantic muck away for the forseeable future. Lovely.
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Not to sound too IMBY, but the cold spell of Feb 2012 only really affected England and Wales. Unfortunately for us, the Azores High was still fairly active during the said period, and as a result the British Isles were only lightly affected by it compared with the rest of Europe. Over here, and across Ireland and Scotland, the best we received was a few frosty nights before more zonal weather returned. At one stage, there was a 15C difference in temperature between the north-west and south-east.As March Blizzard has stated, there could well be snowy episodes even in a relatively mild winter, but hopefully they will be intense and nationwide events.Yeah I quite enjoyed 2011/2012 for the two week cold snap at the beginning of February, although it was a strange spell of weather which might have swayed my opinion a little further.
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My personal hunch is that this winter will be milder than average, perhaps not as mild as the winter of 2011/12, but fairly zonal, perhaps a snow event or two later on. Of course its important to remember that there is no sure-fire way to forecast weather months in advance, and I would be particularly cautious when using long range models like the CFS, which flip-flop constantly.
Having said that, what I hope to see is a colder than average one with easterlies or south-easterlies rather than north-easterlies (they tend to favour snow in this part of the world). Preferably, I'd love a good cold snap around the New Year, perhaps from Christmas onwards, something similar to what we saw in December 2009.
Its important to bear in mind that events like what we saw in November/December 2010 are much rarer than cold snaps from Christmas onwards. An event like that of three years ago was a once in a lifetime occurrence, IMO. If your hoping for a cold winter, chances are you won't see any major snow until after the new year.
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Not much point in looking that far ahead yet IMO. Although having said that I'm all for a colder than average winter, at least one decent cold spell, preferably around the New Year, would suit me. Last winter certainly wasn't that bad down here (about 3 major snow days in total, we're doing well if we even manage to get one), certainly better than the year before that.Definitely a fresher feel to things today Watcher. I would love a stormy spell through Autumn this year. If i remember rightly the season kicked off early last year, i think the first frost and signs of cold were around the 25th September and it was one of the longest spells of cold hunting that i have ever done! Months and months of pain!! Lol! Early thoughts from various sources on line suggest a colder than average winter but we shall see! To be taken with a pince of salt but here's one of the blogs.
As for Autumn, I actually wouldn't mind a decent Indian Summer until around the end of September, and perhaps a few Autumn storms for October and November. Next week looks fairly pleasant for most of Ireland, perhaps not the far north and west, although certainly not as warm as England and Wales.
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It can be much more bitter than in summer, though. I did some charity collecting in December 2011 (not a particularly cold month) and any exposed skin, particularly the hands, would often go raw and painful very quickly (the job required constantly taking off gloves as well, which didn't help).Although, as you say, its much easier to simply rap up in cold weather than it is to cool down in hot weather. In this part of the world, humidity is also a major problem, and even in fairly cool weather it can become unbearable.Work outside is so much easier in Winter. No risk of overheating whatsoever. And even if you do get cold then you just whack another layer on.
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I wouldn't bother with the CFS, it consistently flip flops between mild and cold setups. I would only trust it to give a very general trend, and even then only in the short term, not on a timescale of 3 or more months.Something for the coldies to drool over, only another 128 days to go or something!
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I'm not a fan of long range forecasts, but in my own opinion I think September should be quite an above average month. An Indian Summer Autumn would be quite nice this year, preferably early on when there would still be warmth about. By November any mild setups tend to bring mild foggy muck to our shores.
As for winter, I think this one will be an average one, I just can't see it being particularly noteworthy. Maybe slightly above average. I would certainly like to see a colder than average one, although given where I live, I'd be lucky to get heavy snow in the coldest possible scenario.
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Fairly depressing, although I have to say that I'd have a much bigger problem with the very short Shetland nights in midsummer, when the Sun rises at around half three in the morning. I could never sleep properly in those conditions.Its incredible how much the length of a day changes in this part of the world. Its easy to forget how far north we are, especially when we are milder than other places along our latitude!I feel sorry for those in Lerwick during December when the sun set's at 14:56 for just under a week and before 15:00 for 18 days Lerwicks shortest day has 5h 49m and 09 seconds of day light In Darlo we roughly get 7h 15m and 22 seconds of day light But its the south west which does the best with just over 8 hours of day light from Truro west
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Nice and warm here at the moment, nearly 26C. Lots of cloud across the country, particularly the Midlands, but looks like its beginning to burn away. Northern Ireland looks surprisingly good today as well, any reports on the weather up there?
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Not all parts at the moment unfortunately, huge amounts of cloud across the country at the moment, not expected to clear until tomorrow. Still, very warm at the moment, 25-26C here in Cork, and the cloud finally beginning to lift.26.7c here with wall to wall sunshine.Ireland is definitely looking like the place to be during this spell!Tuesday is looking a particularly hot day over Yorkshire with maxes of 29/30.c
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To be fair, temperatures look fairly good for central Scotland next week, GFS is showing highs of 25-26C (probably won't be exact but it gives a general picture of what temperatures will be like). You should certainly do better than certain parts of the UK.Wind and rain here. about 17 degrees. You wonder why I am moaning? not even looking decent for next week.
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Quite a nice day here at the moment, but a fair bit of cloud still around. About 18C I would imagine, so the real warmth hasn't arrived, yet.
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Looks like temps could rise to the high twenties in parts of the West and Midlands over the coming week, although I think all parts should see temperatures near the mid-twenties. Some cloud across the North and West during the weekend, but it should clear up Monday.
Ireland Regional Discussion - 29/11/2013 ----->
in Regional
Posted
Incredibly gusty down here, winds in excess of 100km/h across the south coast, and something like 120km/h in Waterford about an hour ago.
Plenty of downed trees in places around the city, and lights have been flickering here for the past few hours.
Hope everyone's OK.