snowstorm445
-
Posts
200 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by snowstorm445
-
-
Right folks lets have a wee game. After a cracking start to Autumn lets all have a guess at when we will see our first snow. Here in Derry we already have had our first frost last Saturday. I reckon we will see our first snow falling around the 23rd November. Have a sneaky feeling that it will be early this year. I've been reading the winter thread allot and things seem to be going in the right direction. Something feels different this year and as quite a few on the other threads are doing, i to am going to go with my gut feeling this year!
Didn't Derry, Donegal and Tyrone see some snow last October? I'll try to get the link but I remember it was one of the straws Madden clutched at to prove his incorrect October forecast.
I reckon if we see a colder winter it shouldn't be that long into November, although if it's anything like a good winter, the really good snow should arrive after Christmas but before New Years.
-
Thanks for that bftv, very informative.
I see we share something greater than life itself, being from Cork boy!
-
The thing that annoys me about Madden the most is that he refuses to ever admit he got a forecast wrong, he'll twist the facts and say something like "it snowed in on the top of a Scottish Mountain so I was right" and quite a few people go along with it! Mark Vogan is another one that annoys me, but I do have respect for him because he does at least admit when a forecast goes wrong
Agreed. Madden is so remarkably arrogant in his forecast reviews, he is incredibly revisionist. Last winter was a complete disaster for him and he managed to sweep his failure under the carpet without even mentioning it, when he usually gloats about his apparent "successes" in his previous forecasts. I was so surprised at his forecast this year, not only because it was a carbon copy of last years, but he because he made no mention of his previous dire attempts at creating a winter forecast.
He has absolutely no credibility after last winter's fiasco.
-
A surprisingly nice day here in Cork, although a bit of rain later on. On the chilly side of course, and some scattered showers about as well. Seems a world away from the terrible weather across the rest of the island.
And we're usually the first in line when it comes to damp, mucky weather!
-
Greetings from Cork aka the snowless zone of Europe
Looking good for the Winter ahead, many nights of model drama to look fwd to!
Another Snowstorm from Cork?! Jaysus.
-
Who are you on there just out of interest?
Eh, who I am on here. Snowstorm445.
-
Lol just joined that daily fail thread- spent 45 mins writing a post & it didnt let me post- must be a word or time limit
New I should have pasted it-
S
It doesn't update at night. You'll have to wait until tomorrow to see it.
I think moderating the threads is good, but it is very annoying having to waiting about half an hour to see your posts, or not seeing them at all until the next day if you post them after 8 in the evening. The posts should really be instant.
-
http://modeles.meteo...52-3-29-0-0.png
nearly blast- this is perfection ................
Oooh that looks lovely! Of all weather patterns for my location, this is by far the best. Snow showers feeding from the sea off an easterly airflow, combined with tight isobars, blizzard-like conditions perhaps!
:D -
Lots of cold signals being mentioned.
What opposite signals are there also currently in play which could point towards a milder winter?
Not really sure. I think there was originally a forecast for Positive NAO, which would point to a more zonal, westerly winter, but it seems to be up in the air at the moment. Many of the key signs, such as ice melt and a week El Niño/ENSO neutral, potentially point towards a cold winter.
Bear in mind it is potential. A lot can change in 2 and a half months.
-
A good run from GFS for a time next week some pleasant temps both by day and night showing this afternoon
Quite warm at night for the time of year as well
Yes. Warm temperatures, next week. As nice as it looks, its still in forecasting terms in FI.
-
I think there might be the potential for some ground frosts at the end of the week, particularly across Ulster and in parts of Leinster. Met Éireann are forecasting lows of down to 2ºC on Thursday night, although more like 8ºC where I live.
It certainly feels a lot more Autumnal at the moment. As much as I love warmth I much prefer this to this Indian Summer lark (if it can even be called that, as last year's "Indian Summer" brought rain, wind and mild muck. Oh joy
) -
God almighty I'm getting excited about winter already! I love these long, anticipating threads leading up to winter, really fills you with a love for the season.
Even if it doesn't snow its still nice going onto forums like these, watching each model, looking out for any snow or cold. I have no idea what this winter will be like, but my gut tells me it will be average. Don't take my word for it, and with all these positive signs at the moment, I would love to be proved wrong.
-
So the probability charts are looking good!
Yep. They've remained fairly consistent as well.
The Jamstec IOD model should be coming out next week and their forecasts often turn out to be quite accurate, so it'll be interesting to see their take on the winter months.
-
these are Autumn charts
Apologies, here you go:
-
The Met Office is still predicting a higher probability for a cooler than average winter, particularly across Southern England and Western Ireland. This is consistent from last month, which is interesting, although take it with a pinch of salt:
Its interesting to see all of the potential outcomes for winter with different charts. Just proves how uncertain long-range forecasting is.
-
Hi everyone. Well its a nice end to the day here in Cork although it is markedly cooler than it has been, down to 15 or 16ºC today. Yesterday was even cooler, down to about 13ºC. It has remained quite dry though, surprisingly, so long may that last. There might be a warm up this weekend, but its set to be short-lived I think.
As for the Autumn I think we may see a westerly pattern for the rest of the month and into October but I think then we may see some sort of blocking pattern into the middle to end of October, with a milder regime returning for the early part of November and then some cooler north-westerlies nearer the end of November. But this is mostly a hopecast so don't take my word for it.
-
Tbh I cannot wait for winter now as we got down to 4c last night! Cant believe I was seeing vapour when I breathed out for the first time since early March probably! If we were to get something settled, no way will we be seeing extreme warm values now as it is far too late. Bring on the gales, rain and them dark blue and violet isotherms!
Agreed. This week brought the first sub-zero temperatures of the season to parts of Scotland and Northern England. Its nice that we are getting a heatwave during the week but after about mid-September I really find it quite unseasonable.
It would be nice to see a seasonal Autumn this year, with nice cool weather later on. If this type of weather pattern continues then I feel it will be a complete repeat of last year, which ultimately saw a very mild, mucky winter. Hopefully we will see a return to normal weather soon.
-
Its been a nice evening here in Cork, although it was very windy and wet last night and this morning. Thankfully the warm weather will be back this Thursday to finish off the summer.
-
After a very windy night yesterday, things have calmed down a little. Quite unusual considering these storms are more of an Autumn than late Summer phenomenon. Aside from this, there still looks like no real let up in the poor weather in the days to come.
-
After a very wet and windy night, the morning has been quite sunny, with a few passing showers. Temperature of 16*C, in a moderate south-westerly breeze.
-
Well as we are now approaching the final Summer month I think it is time to start a thread looking at the coming Autumn and Winter.
Some people may think this too early, but we have similar threads for Spring/Summer in February
Additionally, it is around this sort of time that we can start to get a taste for what teleconnections are going to be in play as move into September and so on.So what are peoples thoughts? If you want to post a forecast, go ahead! Equally it would be nice to hear what some are looking forward too/hoping for
My gut feeling says that we will see average to mild winter weather for the majority of the winter. But I never trust my gut, so at the moment its anyone's guess.
What was so bad last year was that even though we did have a cold spell in February, Ireland/Scotland largely missed out because the easterlies couldn't reach us! The only snow we saw last winter was very wet north-westerly type snow that was gone by lunchtime!
Anyway, just for the record, this is a complete guessed forecast, but what the hell!
Late Summer/Autumn 2012 forecast:
August - Wet and cool at the start, warmer and sunnier by the end. CET coming in slightly above average. Rainfall heavier in the North and West.
September - A predominantly dry month, but seasonable temperatures, maybe the odd day of warmth. Colder towards the end.
October - A cooler than average month, with the potential for snow across parts of Highland Scotland, maybe even lower levels as well. Drier than normal, but becoming windier near the end of the month.
November - Stormy, average temperatures, above average rainfall. Snow possible over higher ground in Scotland and Northern England. A colder, but drier end to the month with some night frosts, milder further west.
-
The weather I like ( My List)
sunny
Heavy shower
frontal rain
Snow
Hail
sleet
thunderstorms
Weather I like:
Thunderstorms
Gales (but not too strong)
Snow (not too much of it though)
Cold temperatures (during winter, of course)
Warm temperatures (during summer)
As much sun as possible
Weather I can't stand:
Rainfall for days on end
"Mild muck" during winter
Cool, wet summers
Extreme heatwaves
-
Today has certainly been a horrible day, the first day in a while without any sunshine to speak of. Its also been fairly windy, and its expected to get even windier over the next few days, particularly across the south. Happy day!
-
It certainly has been a very gloomy month, with not much of an improvement from June. This could have an effect on what weather we will see down the line, especially in Autumn. If I'm honest, I think this year is shaping up to be a lot like last year; warm spell during spring, very cool and wet summer.
Lets hope next month has more summery weather in store.
)
Additionally, it is around this sort of time that we can start to get a taste for what teleconnections are going to be in play as move into September and so on.
Ireland Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Here you go:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1017/weather.html