snowstorm445
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Posts posted by snowstorm445
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The ridge is broken at 204 hrs:
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Wouldn't be a GFS run without a massively zooped up Atlantic low attempting to smash its way through.
I suppose it is to be expected, and given how far out it is, probably not to be relied on. I have heard the the GFS has the tendency to bring in zonal weather nearer the end of the runs.
Also bearing in mind that this is the fabled "pub run", but you never know.
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Is it my imagination or is the deep low near Labrador attempting to shove the Greenland High out of the way. Its really squeezing that Atlantic Ridge quite tightly.
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A bitter day here in Cork, plenty of frost around this morning. Temperatures never really rose above 4*C, and tonight looks fairly chilly as well. Lovely weather.
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Forgive me if I'm wrong here, but aren't the NAO/AO 'forecasts' merely derivations of the model-run?
Yep. As you probably know already, it measures the difference in air pressure between Iceland and the Azores. If it is positive you can expect a large difference (i.e. deep PV and an Azores High), and a negative NAO is less of a difference (heights building to the North, lows further south etc.)
So if the NAO forecast shows a dip into negative, you can expect to see charts like the ones we are seeing at the moment appearing around the period that it goes negative.
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Me too please.
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For what its worth one of Marc Vogan's followers have seen something to suggest a tanking NAO and SSW during December. Im not sure what he has seen but sounds promising non the less. He did seem quite confident in his post.
You actually that site? It's so full of rampers and trolls. Loads of them have absolutely no clue on how the weather works and the moment they see a northerly on a chart, no matter how far out, there are cries of "1963 winter on the way looks really cold mark yay snow".
It really makes you cringe at times.
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Nope, it's based on reverse Psychology,If I expect the worse, then everything is a bonus.
I should remember not to come on here and post when I am a wee bit tipsy and in a bad mood.
My main reasoning behind my thoughts are due to the sheer number of times since about May, that I have thought to myself "If ONLY we were seeing this during the Winter" , and because the NAO has been in a negative phase for so long now, we all know that eventually at some point it'll tip back into a persistent + phase, because that's what the NAO does, this added to the fact that we have had HLB for such a long period of time, and take al those together and I guess I just feel that things are bound to tip the other way, which we are starting to see the signs of already.
Fair enough. I suppose you won't be disappointed if the winter is a complete flop. Still, its nice to have a bit of optimism, because if the snow does finally turn up, you feel like a right fool having been negative beforehand.
My gut feeling is probably not to dissimilar from yours in that I expect this year to be mild (or at least above average overall), with some potent but not prolonged intermittent cold snaps. Of course, I'd do hope I am wrong, which I may easily be. In reality I have no clue what the rest of winter will hold but holding a moderate view will ensure you don't come out feeling let down.
The problem I have with some on this forum is that people are so vocal in their pessimism, and the hostility and general repulsion to even a hint of mild really baffles me. Yes, I agree, snow is lovely and leaves you with happy memories, and I'd have it every winter if I could, but it isn't the end of the world if it doesn't show up. Mild weather is hardly torturous and it is in fact fairly mundane when you think about it (except obviously for the windstorms), hence why its called "mild" as opposed to "extreme". We don't even really need snow, and its mainly an interest. Like most interests, if you can't do it (or if you don't witness it in this case), its disappointed, sometimes upsetting, but it doesn't ruin your life in any significant way. And its very likely that you will see it in the future
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Well, I think most of the regular visitors know my emotions.
Hows this for one....this Winter is going to SUCK if you are looking for cold and snow, and I'll be only too happy to eat my words come March / April.
I think this Winter will be the mildest since 2007/2008 , dominated by High pressure to the South of the UK, the Azores High will set up shop, shift around from time to time, it will be wet, windy and god damn awful for anything remotely cold and snowy, give or take a few topplers and just maybe we'll get lucky and it'll have a sting in it's tail.
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Is this based on anything other than pessimism?
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From the bold man himself:
"The chance of a white Christmas is above average, with signs of high pressure blocking increasing the chance of colder than average conditions."I know its not specifically winter, but did he not downgrade the possibility of a white Christmas in the past few weeks? Not surprising IMO, considering his record of backtracking on previous forecasts.
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Here 'mild' is 4c to 7c above average.
http://www.timeandda...r/glossary.html
Surely 'mild' cant mean average ? I think its important in a model sense ? Do we have a defintion ?
Oops. I meant to say "above"!
My mistake.
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No, it would appear you're looking through cold-tinted glasses. The NAO forecast is not 'neutral at best', on the first graph* all members point to a moderately positive outcome for the next week, later trending towards neutral but with just four of them opting for varying degrees of -NAO.
And yet EML Network claimed it would be "very positive", as opposed to "moderately positive". Now, in my experience, I have seen much more positive NAOs than this predicted one, which from the looks of other NAO runs below won't last long (last Christmas saw a predicted NAO of nearly plus 4 or 5, not surprising given the extremely zonal weather with a very strong Jet).
He also claims it looks set to be positive "right through to the end of the period", which is incorrect as the NAO chart shows above. Fair enough if it turns out to be positive, but I don't know what he is basing this claim on if he is referring to the charts.
And I don't claim to solely seek cold weather, that would be cherry picking. But its important to define what is meant by the word "mild". Mild in meteorological terms means temperatures that are above the seasonal average. The models are currently predicting a coolish zonal flow for the next few days, and temperatures are set to be around the seasonal average. London, for example, is set to see temperatures around 9-11ºC, whilst the seasonal average high for London is 11.4ºC, so it looks likely to be even below average at times.
Further down the line, that can of course all change - EML isn't suggesting that November mildness (which earlier you were denying as being likely!) guarantees any sort of weather further down the line. It's rather the stratosphere's November weather, rather than the UK's weather, which is (strongly) indicative of the UK's weather further down the line, though of course still doesn't give anything close to definite.*I've never paid attention to the three graphs below, no matter what they're showing. What exactly is the difference between them and the top graph, and why are they showing fairly different outcomes?
edit: I do think there's a tendency in this forum to jump on anyone who suggests/points out the possibility of mildness, as if they're suggesting mildness will reign for months and months or as if they're suggesting it's a definite outcome rather than a possibility.
Can you quote me on this?
He actually made no mention of the stratosphere in his post, rather to charts, and the High Pressure associated with it. He claims there is High pressure over southern Europe by the end of the run, whilst in actual fact, the high pressure systems (according to the GFS, which apparently has the best track record in FI) are located over the Azores, just extending into Iberia, and Eastern Europe. Regardless, these look to have no effect on the UK/Ireland as low pressure is centred over us bringing fairly mixed conditions.
Regarding your last part, that's usually the problem. There seems to be an almost phobic hatred of anything remotely mild, and should it show up in the charts, pessimism is often the order of the day. People seem to always buy into it and declare that the entire month ahead looks poor, as if this sole chart will inevitably come true, whereas colder charts are taken with a huge pinch of salt. I'm not buying into an overly cold November, but some of those who are even doubting a White Christmas at this stage need to bear in mind how unreliable weather forecasting becomes after even a week.
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I sometimes wonder if people are so blinkered towards looking for a potential cold outbreak that the completely ignore what is staring them in the face.
The NAO updates keep getting worse and worse from a cold point of view, today's update puts us in a very + NAO outlook, with the majority of the ensembles members keeping it into the + right through until the end of the forecast period.
Not only that, but High pressure is clearly building South of the UK, covering a huge swathe of Europe as we get into the later stages of the run, something that has been showing, run after run after run after run and yet it seems to be completely ignored by some.
Sorry, I don't mean to come on here and "Have a pop" at people, it's just I sometimes feel people look at things with rose tinted glasses and are just setting themselves up for disappointment further down the line, when all along the obvious has been staring them in the face.
That being said I hope things so start to change soon towards a colder outlook, because I am fearing the worst this winter, I dare not mention the evil word that begins with a "B" and ends in a "T" and is something centered over Europe, but you'd be silly not to dismiss the possibility especially given the recent outputs
Incorrect. The NAO is hardly "very +", its looking neutral at best in the coming weeks (look at the 14 day chart):
It is well known that November is the most zonal month of the year, hence why most windstorms occur in the Late Autumn and Early Winter. What we are seeing is a very unusual November in fact, and it is returning only to average really. There is an Azores High but not much of a Bartlett High as far as I can see.
Nearly every November I can think of has been zonal, at least most of it, even the ones preceding cold winters, like 2009/2010. It is hardly a shock to the system that we are seeing it again this year (much later and in much less strength than last year, mind you).
If anything, you appear to be looking through extremely mild-tinted glasses. Mild weather in November is absolutely not indicative of the weather further down the line.
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This winter is looking abit to normal with tot much snow.
But things are yet to change.
Please elaborate. How can you conclude it "looks" normal when it hasn't even begun? We have difficulty knowing what'll happen in the next fortnight, never mind the winter.
Although I presume you are reading some of the more pessimistic posts on here. These are only for the next few weeks, not the whole winter.
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Why is there such huge negativity about a bit of normal zonal weather in the middle part of November? Frankly we've hardly seen any of it up until this point, and it usually delivers some interesting windstorms.
I have no doubt that many on here believe that the because last winter turned out to be a zonal AZ High dominated winter, the mere sight of it on the charts brings to mind horrible memories of dull, disgustingly mild winter nights with no end in sight. There are huge differences between this and last year in terms of zonal weather:
1. Obviously November sees fairly zonal weather anyway, so anything like this that shows up as such on the charts is hardly unheard of in November.
2. The NAO looks set to bd fairly negative at the moment, so the likelihood of sustained westerly winds are weak.
3. The PV looks set to be weak and fragmented at best, completely different to last year.
4. There are signs from both the CFS and the Japanese model that Heights will build to the north and west in the final third of the month, which is encouraging.
I would encourage people not to dread a zonal pattern if it shows up. It's not the end of the world, and it's not as if a cold winter will not feature zonal patterns, especially this early on. This year's Autumn has been very unusual, so I think winter could be interesting as well, especially if all the background signals are anything to go by.
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The latest from The weather Outlook for winter
Not very surprising to see Brian Gaze revising his winter thoughts after a series of poor runs, as he is well known for not sticking to his guns when it comes to long-range forecasting. Last winter he went for a "very slightly" colder than average winter, but before December had even finished, he decided to change his mind and forecasted a milder than average winter.
Even the fact that he is never certain about it (maybe, possibly, very very slight bias etc.), and always sits on the fence shows how little confidence he has in his forecasts. If you look at this TWO Buzz he often looks at model runs and decides "well this goes against my previous forecast, and the models must be right, so I'll change my forecast for so and so".
If you want to see a forecaster who sticks to their guns and has more confidence in his forecasting you should listen to Simon Keeling. I find his forecasts and his musings very in-depth and he usually sticks to his original forecasts even when the odds are against it.
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Cant understand why his followers think he is so good. Some of the posts on his page make me laugh. They all seem to think we are heading for a 62/63 style winter. OH DEAR. But i guess when he fails again this winter people may then realise just how far fetched he can be. Because the noises im hearing from gp is that this winter again could be a let down for us in the uk. Heres to 2013/2014 winter lol
Amazing stuff. Your happy to fall head over heels in support for a forecaster who apparently has predicted winter to be mild (which of course he probably hasn't but we are all well acquainted with your cherry-picking abilities), yet you attack other long-range forecasters like Vogan for doing the same thing? Nice bit of double standards there.
Not that you appear to have contributed much to his page either. Seems you've already become a familiar face to most on the DM forum so you've decided to find new ground to get up to your usual antics on. Quite sad if you think about it.
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I suppose you could also say that the same happens when a few GFS runs are showing cold evolutions out at T384?? But the difference is that they get ramped, over analysed and cherry picked to death regardless of how far into fantasy land they happen to be - ''another Winter 1962/63 is on the doorstep'' etc etc....
Where have I said that they are different. Frankly the ramping over cold weather is just as bad if not worse in reality, but I think people are sensible enough not to take it seriously unless if happens to appear on runs for several days. But with mild runs, people act as if it is guaranteed to turn out the way that it is shown with that sort of "its just our luck" pessimism. It really is unbearable.
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No of course Winter is 'ov
er'Its at times like this the models suddenly wake up to pressure over Northern Europe changing to +VE
S
It really is incredible. A day of relatively poor runs from the GFS (after weeks of predominantly cold and polar airflows) seems to convince people that the entire month of November, even as far ahead as Christmas, will turn out to be mild. Its amazing. Its as if somehow a predominantly mild (ish) chart will always turn out to be solid, undeniable fact, despite the fact that we are all WELL aware that they change on a daily if not an hourly basis.
There are two with basing your opinion on charts, particularly it seems the GFS:
1. For a start the furthest they go is about the middle of November, so anything after that is just your gut feeling, which from what I see on here changes with nearly every run.
2. They fluctuate daily, as we saw between yesterday's charts and today. I can guarantee we have seen plenty of weather events that appeared on the charts for days but never came to fruition. On numerous occasions the threat of an Indian Summer/Bartlett High appeared on the models only to vanish again within a few days.
I really don't mind if we see a mild November, we have been spoilt with a fairly below average Autumn up until this point. And correct me if I am wrong, but is it not a fairly common occurance to see a polar vortex gather strength during the winter months (hence the powerful storms)? Even if it does arrive it won't always remain a permanent feature.
Anyway, before people decide to write off a month before it has even commenced based on a day of poor(er) runs than previously seen, coupled with pessimistic gut feelings, please bear in mind how unpredictable weather in this part of the world is, and above all, how zonal patterns are by far the most common weather pattern to see at this time of year.
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Very cold here this morning, with a good frost and ice on the car's windscreen. Very unusual for this time of year, especially this far south.
Apparently there were supposed to be a few streamers coming in across the Irish Sea last night which could have brought wintery showers. Did anyone notice this?
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No, I'm pretty sure I don't have it!
Thank God.
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Are you saying I am doylem haha? I did just post some cold charts for the end of October.
No, but a certain poster's post look remarkably similar to his.
Although I must say, you look live you may have gotten a touch of Doylemitis. Symptoms include cherry-picking data, ignoring criticism and making massively exaggerated claims. As far as I know there is no known cure if you do have it, so finger's crossed you don't.
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I see Doylem's been up to his usual antics on the thread today.
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People see one mild chart and suddenly think it means winters over
Or see one cold chart and thinks an Ice Age is coming...
er'
Model Output Discussion 23/11/2012 18Z onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Hold the phone!
Is this another ridge I see forming? (I know its nearly 2 weeks but still)