snowstorm445
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Posts posted by snowstorm445
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Zero consistency from the models as per usual. More proof that they should simply not be trusted beyond even the next few days let alone a week.
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These model outputs are certainly not poor as some are suggesting, in fact compared with what was seen around the New Year I am very pleased. All the building blocks are here and frankly as pretty as the models may look beyond 5 days I won't be taking them seriously until the cold is within 5 days.
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No 'reorganisation' of any vortex here...shredded into pieces...Synoptically beautiful...As chio said depends where wheel spins but beautiful to look at
T204
Hehe wild swings....
Jaysus that's a serious cold pool in the final chart, we only need the G High to become a bit stronger! Pity it's so far out.
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Can I just remind people that this is an operational model, we need to pay attention to the ensembles to see if this is the general outlook overall or simply a mild(er) outlier.
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Yep, guilty, I got sucked in a bit early, my bad, should have known better!
No probs. Sure it's understandable given the eye candy facing us earlier. Patience is a virtue.
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Of course, it goes without saying.
A repeat of the Prozac posts from this time yesterday afternoon for sure.
Once again on the 12z any cold looks to be way out in FI, it's very much chasing rainbows.
Hopefully we may reach the gold but for now, the 12z doesn't deliver for this weekend as well as the ECM and 06z
Unless its in a 5 day range at least then it is certainly not definite. We've seen this happen on numerous occasions thus far this winter.
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This is plain UGLY!!! I'm off until the ECM rolls out, if that goes t*ts up I'll be back tomorrow!
What's ugly about it? A nice little Scandi High forming and an even better Arctic High forming above!
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Poor GFS and UKMO may end up going the same way, hopefully just a wobble.
There's nothing really that poor about it. I would call it progressive if anything. As long as the Scandi High remains in place then I regard it as a good run.
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Nothing wrong with that chart
Yep. The Scandinavian High is still going strong. There's still ample opportunity here.
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The ECM has been giving us eye candy at T240 for weeks and none of it has materialised so I wouldn't be that optimistic of change, especially as its big brother (EC32) says the pattern is basically zonal. The ECM ensembles have the op as a cold outlier and they follow the long wave pattern of a strong westerly flow:
http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim
There are no indications of a flip to cold. It is what it is and the models are showing no cold for the foreseeable. East v West, the west rarely loses.
This coming from the model that promised sustained cold weather throughout December? Well I suppose it's showing mild, so of course it must be correct eh?
There is plenty to suggest that it will be cold. The NAO remains quite negative, which indicates a weak zonal pattern, not a raging Jet that your posts seem to indicate. The polar vortex still looks fairly weak as well.
Can we please not make sweeping statements like "there are no signs of cold" when some signs are still there. We made the same mistake with the previous anticipated cold spells, saying there were no signs of mild and zonal weather, and as it happened these patterns began to return to the charts.
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Such a frustrating period of model watching at the moment, it's hard to not rant.
What I find personally so very annoying is, that during the periods where the charts look great (at t168 and later) 95% of the forum and model thread contributors/watchers go into 'siberian express', 'lets buy the shovels' mode, blindly analysing every single frame section by section, run by run - talking about 'snow moving in from the south at t210' - yet the very second I or someone else pops in and makes a comment such as, 'its all in FI', 'there will be inveitable dramas', 'stop getting overally excited' and so I get my head taken off for not enjoying the charts, being negative and not getting into the 'swing of things'.
This is the SECOND, YES 2ND lesson of winter and we are only in the 2nd week of December. The models LEAD us up the garden path virtually everyday on a compilation of many different outcomes. It's why it becomes so frustrating and comments of 'told you so' come out of my mouth to thoose that sniped and swashed at my opinion. The climate and location we live in is so volatile in situations regarding winter its incredible, we may see 25 consistent GFS runs in addition to ECM/UKMO broadly reading the same hymn sheet all at t144, BUT that does not matter.
Just a few final notes of my rant.
*UNTIL THE WEATHER COMES INTO T48 - CHANCES ARE IT WONT! HAPPEN.
*DO NOT TAKE ANYTHING AFTER T48 AS GOSPEL, OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT.
*COLD SPELLS WILL ALWAYS* BE MODELED WELL, BETTER OR PERFECTLY AT T168 - DONT GET REMOTELY EXCITED OR POSITIVE ABOUT THEM
*DONT COUNT ANY CHICKENS.
*DONT RAMP ANYTHING UP UNTIL ITS ON YOUR DOORSTEP
*LASTLY - FOR GOD SAKE, DO NOT! UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES GET CAUGHT UP ON ANYTHING MODELED, OR WHAT ANYONE SAYS, AT ANYPOINT. THE TELECONNECTIONS HAVE BEEN PERFECT* FOR WEEKS NOW AND EVEN THOUGH GP,STEVE, NICK & CO HAVE CORRECTLY POINTED OUT EVERYTHING IS IN PLACE SO TO SPEAK, I'VE NOT SEEN A SNOWFLAKE YET.
Rant over.
Of course, preferably another rule should be not to pollute the forum with incessant doom-mongering or pessimism.
Would you not agree?
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I really hope this thread will be put to good use, and not just forgotten about. Frankly I am sick to the back teeth of the bellyaching over on the model discussion, and no matter how strong the appeal, it always manages to make an appearance.
Some people have absolutely no interest in the weather, just the prospect of blizzards. If you are going to comment on a weather forum I think we should be prepared for whatever the weather throws at us. If the summer doesn't show any potential for summery periods, or drops them from the models after good runs, it's upsetting but I'm hardly going to be greiving it. Why is winter always different?
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I think if the ECM follows suit we can safely say 2 things-
*No sustained cold at these shores for at least 14 days
*Very bad news in the run up to the most expensive time of the year for thoose in the SW
The atlantic express has arrived, will it remain in the station?
Interesting! So if both the GFS and the ECM show mild today, then there's no hope for severe cold for the next fortnight? So what about the apparent consistency if these two models for the non-event cold spell? That wasn't just a days worth if runs, it lasted several days. But if it's showing mild then it must be true I suppose...
How is it that the apparent "be cautious about the models" theory is often applied during predicted cold spells, but is noticeably silent following mild outputs? Even if back up signals like the PV and NAO lean towards a colder setup?
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Seriously, guys? What are you saying 'It's Only November' for?
A guaranteed frost for most before Saturday ... snow for about half of us at the weekend and cold temperatures throughout.
I mean HOW much more do you want?!!!
In recent times, a Nov 2010 standard setup has been the expectation, despite its massive rarity. The models are clearly picking up on something a bit more ordinary for the time of year, but the horridness of last December means that any signals for mild(er) weather is often met with hostility.
I see no issue with the models picking up on milder weather, given the time of year, and I think we need to recognise how typical it is for this time of year. A cold winter isn't always going to have cold conditions throughout.
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I would advise people to be cautious. While I think it may well eventually turn out like this, it will probably take time and might be watered down. I am not going to get drawn in with it like I did with the recent deep freeze that never was, I should have learned from last year of course.
Still, amazing charts and hopefully it will come off.
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That last ECM chart is snowtastic for the Irish east coast, snow streamers would be in full action with only the Isle of Man Shadow preventing a dumping for many
Could be very useful for us in the far south as well, what with it coming off an easterly rather than the fairly useless 2010-esque north-easterly set up, which would bring moisture in over us from the Celtic Sea.
Too bad its right out in FI.
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I trust this evening's charts are as dire as ever? Well, just goes to show that no matter how brilliant and how consistent the models can be, some petty shortwave manages to break it all down. Looks like we'll have to wait that bit longer, if the GFS verifies.
It's amazing. All the signs are there; a weak NAO/AO, broken vortex and even an Arctic High, and yet the Atlantic manages to stifle all the potential. And there was no signal of it until yesterday evening. No matter what the outcome, the models have shown themselves to be about as useful as a ship made of lead, constantly backtracking and switching sides (except the UKMO of course
)Anyway, I've not given up on a coming cold spell, but we will probably have to wait, which I have no issue with. But I really wish the models would stop continuously switching back and forth and constantly go against each other. It really pulls at your heartstrings.
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Some interesting info on the (excellent) TWO thread, that I'd thought I'd pop in here.
Verification stats are interesting to say the least,
ECM verifying on par with NOGAPS at the moment, with GFS leading and UKMO second.
Also to note is the 500mb anom charts, big differences between ECM and GFS
If that Icelandic low moves out of the way we could have a very strong ridge rebuilding over the Atlantic. Certainly not a zonal pattern by any means. Look how powerful that Arctic High is.
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What is wrong with ECM yes it does show a zonal pattern but towards the end heights begin to build north with a cold pool over Scandinavia if anything I would rather have the ECM shows some real potential it's more than likely not to happen but still you have 3 months of winter and this year is looking good for cold weather it only one run and here enjoy this ray of sunshine.
You can see on that chart that Height build over Greenland and stretch out with the two troughs sinking south it looks good!
That looks good for rebuilding the ridge once the Icelandic depression has moved eastward, and potentially linked with the one over Northern Europe. We saw this on the GFS yesterday (albeit in FI). I know its unlikely, but its an interesting pattern to observe.
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I think its important to point out that models are often volatile and unstable when dealing with these sort of developments. They generally deal with zonal weather and developments like these are often not clear cut, and the models can occasionally throw up some fairly horrific charts.
And can I also just speak on a personal level for a moment. A lot of these models throw up brilliant outcomes for those in, say, the North-East of England or Eastern Scotland, and even across the rest of Great Britain and into Eastern Ireland. This is where north-easterlies deliver the best. But in my part of the world, whilst these model outputs are nice to see, they generally don't deliver much in the way of snow or cold, and I tend to look at the models more out of interest because my expectations are lower. I'm not suggesting a pessimistic viewpoint over the models, but I think expectations need to be fairly moderate, remember, what we are seeing is an incredibly rare pattern for November and early December. The ECM may be poor but its simply what we can expect for the time of year, especially in these uncertain times. Lets just observe and enjoy the patterns we are seeing, and see them as an example of how unpredictable and surprising the weather can be.
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Its always interesting how we will always regard milder weather as somewhat more valid in terms of charts than colder weather. Yesterday we had the GFS vs the ECM and UKMO and the majority of minor models (even though it has been said many a time on here that these models are unreliable). And yet many cautioned people on "not ruling out" what this one chart was showing, despite its utter difference to the other models.
Skip forward to today and despite the fact that these same models are showing cold, and, particularly the UKMO, have been very consistent, many are happy to write off the cold spell and take the ECM as gospel. Now, I may have been looking at the wrong thread, but has the general trend over the past, oh I don't know, week or so been for colder than average weather? Why all of a sudden does an unprecedented switch that has emerged in the past number of hours mean it is undeniable fact and that all hopes of a nice cold spell, which is still on, btw, have evaporated?
Now, I know this might fall on deaf ears, but can we please not make overly sweeping statements like "bitter disappointment" and "its all over" BEFORE we see proper consistency from all models, you know, like the consistency that we have seen for cold weather in the last week or so.
Thanks.
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Minority (or sometimes even majority) of plausable models show cold: "Let's be cautious! It's not cast in stone! Calm down!"
Majority (and at the moment minority) of plausible models showing mild: "Awful! Awful! No signs of cold weather! Must be true!"
Can everyone please take a deep breath and stop freaking out at the slightest hint of mild! Yesterday the ECM was on board with the UKMO and against the GFS in favour of a cold spell. Now it's played a role reversal and the ECM is the odd one out. Until there is proper consistency, and I mean a few days of consistency, not just a one model run and a few minors, then we can have some form of confidence on what lies ahead.
We get this despair everytime something like this crops up, so I won't be holding my breath. Take a chill pill people!
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After all the guidance given out in this thread from respected members wrt to op runs and how bad the GFS is etc we now have folk getting excited over charts post T300.... Oh dear....
In the short term some minor upgrades from the 18z and with a few more tweaks it could be excellent. Awaits the 00z runs.....
I think most people know its not going to happen. But they really are truly beautiful charts if your a member of the cold camp.
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What a brilliant end to the run! I know its not going to happen but this is one saucy chart!
Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Or Cork.