snowstorm445
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Posts posted by snowstorm445
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Looks like conflicting offerings Jamstec is a La Nina pattern whilst the Beijing model is more of a El Nino pattern
They're nearly at war with each other over a bunch of islands. Of course they're going for opposite forecasts! They'd be accused of being collaborators if they forecasted the same thing!
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Could it be that Doylem's decided to migrate from the Daily Mail forum to this one this year?
Those who post/used to post over there will know exactly what I'm refering to here.
Indeed. I thought he'd stay over on the DM forum but apparently not. He has several aliases on that forum though as far as I'm aware although he claims this isn't true.
If you want to see Doylem in action head over to MV's facebook page. Some great craic going on over there.
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Well if metcheck are to be belived then i think there will be some wrist slashing going on here. Doesnt sound too good to me. It will certainly go agaisnt the snow ramp forecasters out there.
I agree Doylem. However, this is the same weather agency which not only forecasted a major snow event in December last year, but also reportedly forecasted 900mph winds.
Nice too see your back to the usual cherry picking though.
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Its been a fairly decent weekend albeit, albeit a few dark clouds about today. Certainly much better than it was earlier in the week.
I think I'll chip in to this snow forecast. I suspect November will be fairly mixed, possibly more on the mild side, so I'm going to go for December 9th. I suspect December will start very much the same but we could potentially see a cold spell setting up around the start of the second week, but this is nothing but a gut feeling.
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piers corbyn mention in nov 2010 we would have worst winter in 100yrs now joe laminate floori is saying worst winter in 50yrs so i guess we wont be seeing another dec 2010 if all he is forecasting is worst in 50yrs sounds all very far fetched to me to be honest. Heres hoping for a mild xmas so at least everyone can see freinds and family then a few cold shots jan and feb will do me just fine. Certainley dont fancy a 1947 0r 63 winter at all.
You sound awfully familiar.
He can exaggerate, but his basic gist is that it will be colder than last year. Its very unlikely that a '63 winter will show up, but it could well be colder than average. IIRC he has a fairly good record with regards winter forecasting. He forecasted a more benign winter last year, with the main cold in Europe located over the Balkans, which was the case later in in winter.
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Hopes? Expectations? I suppose I would like to see a much more seasonal winter this year, with a mix of cold and warmth, but with temperatures coming in slightly below average. I wouldn't mind mild weather so long as its dry, but as little wind as possible (there's bound to be some, especially at the start).
This isn't a forecast, just what I would like to see:
December:
A mixed start with fairly seasonal temperatures up until about the 10th, then a period of milder weather until the 20th, followed by a cold spell, gradually getting worse in the run up to the New Year. Rainfall to be about average, not too many windstorms (last year was dreadful), and temperatures to come in slightly below average. Wouldn't mind a White Christmas as well but not desperately cold, and not too much to cause disruption to travel.
January:
The cold weather from the end of December continuing up until around the 5th, then a fairly mild regime dominating, although high pressure nearby hopefully keeping us dry for the most part. This could continue up until around the 15th-20th when a more mixed, windier, wetter and slightly cooler regime sets in. Around the 25th, and Scandinavian High could arrive, a bit further to the west than last year, setting the stage for a cold end to the month. Overall, a fairly dry month, with temperatures around average, maybe slightly above.
February:
The month could start very cold, with easterly winds running right across the UK and Ireland. A low pressure system across the France could mean snow for much of the south, with drier but not completely so conditions further north. Winds from a north-easterly direction bringing a strong wind chill to boot. Gradually, benign conditions could return from the 15th onwards, with mild weather setting itself up for the end of the month. Overall, another dry month, but much colder than January.
In summary, a fairly mixed bag with colder conditions towards the end, and much more widespread than last year. If it is even colder than this, fair enough, but not desperately cold, no 1963 or 2010 situations. Certainly not hoping for the complete flop that was last winter either.
Again, this is not a forecast, but a hopecast.
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Very interesting all most anything could happen but warm weather looks more likely than cold weather going by that
But it will probably mean wetter, windier weather with a Strong Jet Stream, which could cook up some nasty windstorms. I'm not bothered if it's mild or cold, but I'd prefer if it was calm than windy. A colder scenario would probably bring much more settled weather.
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After all this cold talk this would put a damper on things, all the coldies will just have to hope the ECMWF seasonal update is wrong
Calm down, it's only October. There are several other long range models to take into consideration, unless that gets in the way of cherry-picking.
Long range models are, in my opinion, not to be relied on anyway. I think their only real purpose is to get people in the mood for the coming season. In terms if weather forecasting, they can be very unreliable.
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An absolutely rubbish day here today, rain non stop until about half an hour ago. It seems the North of the country has escaped bone dry.
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Saw some frosts over these past few nights, temperatures have been down to freezing in parts. I just hope all this cold weather isn't wasted on October and saved for later on when its can be more useful.
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Interesting tweets from Joe B, how you can know what will happen this far out though, so many factors could change.
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Another bleedin' win for Kilkenny! Brian Cody must be sick of it at this stage.
Anyway, a fairly contrasting day all in all. Very wet and miserable this morning, but much nicer in the afternoon. Fairly autumnal IMO. I does look as if, provided that a southerly airflow does get established this weekend, Ireland, Wales and Western Scotland should benefit the most. For a change.
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the NAO is, as you say a reflection of the overall pattern. a negative NAO is what we get in the classic 'greeny high' situation. myself and BFTV have been looking at trends and causes of colder winters and have come up with a few ideas, built upon the findings of others, by trying to find links between various and alternative teleconnections (all credit goes to BFTV for the hard work and technical stuff)
an interesting link, still in research, is the link between polar ice extent and ozone levels. - they seem to correspond. as in the fall in ozone seems to match the timing of the fall in arctic ice levels. (it has been mentioned that less arctic ice, under favourable conditions, can lead to more snow in the N hemisphere) ozone levels have been on the rise again for the past few years. as chionomaniac has explained in the strat thread, more ozone leads to warming of the arctic strat, leading to a disrupted polar vortex. - a main ingredient for colder winters here. add this to the negative PDO (the coldest winters have generally occurred during the neg phase) and we have a few of the major 'building blocks' in place already. G.P. has said that the early signs are favourable for northern blocking this winter, i.e. negative NAO. there are many other factors which need to fall into place and there are never any guarantees. however, as of now, things are looking favourable for a cold (snowy??.....) winter. we shall see.....
Very interesting stuff. There really are so many factors to consider in meteorology, particularly in long-range forecasting. Certainly there are a huge range of things to consider when trying to even predict weather for this part of the world.
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Blocking, in the broadest definition, is when an area of stationary high pressure disrupts the usual atmospheric air currents. In terms of this part of the world, an area of blocking would disrupt the Jet Stream's usual West-East pattern. The Jet Stream usually brings us fairly unsettled conditions, including low pressure systems which usually bring us rain. It also brings us westerly winds, and depending on how powerful the Jet is, the winds tend to vary in strength.
In an area of blocking, the Jet Stream is displaced. During winter, blocking can push the Jet Stream south, bringing most the rain that we would usually get to the Mediterranean, and as a result, being on the colder side of the Jet Stream, we can see colder winds coming down from the north or east. In summer, if the Jet Stream is pushed northwards, we can see warm air from the tropics being pumped up over us, giving us fine dry weather.
Its quite difficult to summarise it in short, but that is basically all there is too it. There are many factors that determine the probability of blocking, including NAO, the Polar Vortex, the AO etc.
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But what's the cause and what's the effect? Could it not be said that the NAO is only a statistical reflection of the relative, respective strengths of the PV and the AHPZ?
That's what I meant. The NAO is only supposedly a reflection of this, and it is only really an indicator of the difference in pressure between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low. And since it is predicting a neutral NAO for the coming fortnight (its predictions tend to be quite accurate), we can expect fairly normal westerly patterns but not very strong ones. If it was negative, we would be seeing a weak JS, and blocking highs could build in. In a positive NAO, the JS would be very strong, and there would be little if any chance of anything beyond a strong zonal pattern. If its neutral, however, it is highly doubtful that there would be either a very strong polar vortex or very weak vortex; more likely normal conditions for this time of year.
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Yep the dreaded polar vortex is shown to start materialising in FI. BUT its still early days.
I think last year a lot of the winter was spent waiting for it to weaken and it took forever, which is one reason why we were stuck with the persistent euro high for a lot of it, along with drier milder weather. (Although normally it strengthens the influence from westerlies?)
As ive said its still early and plenty of time for change. Still 2 months of autumn left. Does anyone know when the polar vortex really set in strongly last year?
Agreed. The fact that it is not even October and that it is in the depths of FI, which we all know to be unreliable, means there is a minimal chance that what we are seeing will win hands down and will dominate the coming winter.
The best indicator of how strong the PV will be is by looking at the NAO. The NAO measures the difference in strength between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. If it is forecast to be positive, you can expect above average heights to South (i.e. the Azores High), and below average heights to the North (i.e. the Icelandic Low), and as a result, you see a strong polar vortex, as the difference in pressure between the two pressure systems becomes larger, and thus the Jet Stream becomes more powerful and westerlies prevail. Basically, in a period of positive NAO, our normal zonal pattern prevails as a result of the strong PV.
At the moment, the NAO is forecast to stabilise at around neutral, which is why the GFS might be seeing this.
A very strong PV isn't likely to happen unless we see a strongly positive NAO. Apparently the GFS tends to naturally bring in milder air at the end of its runs anyway, or so I've heard.
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The 06z is the worst run of the day-
However irrespective of the fact its quite a cold run at the surface- out to 168 it does depict the model 'trending' for the last 24 hours, of course if you didnt believe the model output from yesterday anyway ( IE thoughts of some sort of indian Summer) then it doesnt come as a surprise!
Snow in the news next week for sure- obviously it will be overhyped but still- nice to see...
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I thought that 18z run was the worst one of the day. They don't call it the "pub run" for nothing.
12z is always the most accurate I believe, regardless of your weather preferences. I remember last year people would declare if a model was showing cold, that it was "accurate", and if the same model later showed "mild", it was "rubbish". Bit revisionist if you ask me.
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The weather in Autumn does not determine what happens during winter. In fact, according to GP, a cold outlook for October tends to favour a milder winter, so there isn't much harm having high pressure nearby.
I really doubt we will see the temperatures we saw last October (which was an absolutely vile month btw). Highs of only in the low 20s at least. Bear in mind that the NAO is currently in a fairly neutral phase* to neutral phase, which means the normal westerly pattern will probably prevail.
Sorry, neutral to slightly positive.
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And who decided it was a vile month? I enjoyed it personally, barely any cold to speak of. That plume the ECM is showing for next weekend would easily see some areas reaching the mid 20s. Of course it could be gone in the next run.
I am allowed to have an opinion. In my part of the world it was constantly wet, windy and mild for the most part. No other pattern to speak of, generally mild muck for its entirety. Given your location I would suspect you got the lion's share of the warmth that month, so it certainly wasn't "vile" for all of us.
BTW, I don't know about you, but I prefer more seasonal weather. While I didn't mind the wind and rain, it was very mild, although not pleasantly so (i.e. dry weather and warmth).
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Weather Services International are going for a Mild and Wet Autumn / Early winter for western Europe this year
http://www.wsi.com/f...ase-details.htm
WSI predicted cold weather last year before deciding to take a u-turn right at the last minute in favour of a mild winter. They also made no mention of the severe cold spell in Europe in February.
I'm presuming you are a mild lover, given the
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The thing that concerns me if the ecm is right would be a similar pattern to last october when we also had a late heatwave with temps touching 30c and then the weather patterns were absolutely dire for cold prospects for many weeks, well into winter actually before we got any cold weather of note, the mid to late autumn was generally very mild, I hope the weather does not have a memory and fancies a repeat. I'm looking for a more amplified pattern to arrive as we go deeper into autumn, as GP said recently..please no repeat of what happened in autumn and early winter last year.
The weather in Autumn does not determine what happens during winter. In fact, according to GP, a cold outlook for October tends to favour a milder winter, so there isn't much harm having high pressure nearby.
I really doubt we will see the temperatures we saw last October (which was an absolutely vile month btw). Highs of only in the low 20s at least. Bear in mind that the NAO is currently in a fairly neutral phase to neutral phase, which means the normal westerly pattern will probably prevail.
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The saviour for me last winter was early February when we saw about a week of lying snowfall, pre 2008 a week of snowfall lying on the ground would have been a dream, so can't complain too much. It was a long time coming though
It really depended on where you were. Last year was a massive disappointment for my part of the world, even during the cold spell, simply because we were just too far west to see any of the cold. Ireland was the only country in Europe to have seen above average Feb temps:
The only snow we did get was slushy, north-westerly snow that was gone by lunchtime. The year before that, virtually the entirety of Northern Europe received very cold temperatures, all of the UK/Ireland included.
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I've been off for a day and it seems there is panic around here for some unknown reason lol.
The signals for this winter are good...!
We are in a much better position than we were last autumn. I think all of us were grasping at straws last year.
Any coldies like me, looking at charts for mid winter this far out, will be driven to the point of insanity as they constantly chop and change.
Don't do it lol!!!!
I don't remember what it was like last Autumn but I imagine like most winters there would have been a lot of hype about the coming winter, regardless of the signs. Where the signs there for a mild winter well in advance or did they arrive later?
In any case, lets wait until some of the more accurate forecasters, Netweather included, release their forecasts.
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we maybe 9.5 weeks away from start of winter going by the met's 16-30day outlook parts of scotland could have wintery showers in october.
Snow is quite normal in Highland Scotland at this time of year, nothing really out of the ordinary. However the snow we did see earlier this month in Scotland was unusual I believe.
Back in October 2008 I remember being up near Dublin and the place was covered in snow, at least for a while. Very unusual for that time of year, but the winter itself turned out to be fairly normal, aside from February 2009.
Ireland Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Some very windy weather last night, as well as today. Some flooding in Cork this morning but nothing like November 2009. Still, fairly awful trying to get into the city, and more rain is expected overnight. Lets hope its too prolonged.