snowstorm445
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Posts posted by snowstorm445
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I don't think it's going to make it. A low south of Greenland is blocking the block!
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Great GEM, bitterly cold with plenty of snow opportunities next week. GEM = Cold UKMO = Cold GFS = Shes on her way ECM = Too come
GFS is hardly cold long term, no cold at all for us in the west. It's all gone by the middle if next week it seems. Maybe an improvement on the situation earlier but a lot more is needed and the UKMO is starting to pick this up.
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sorry as a newbie.....what do you mean gfs in FI ??
Output from the GFS beyond 144 hours, the unreliable territory where the GFS powers up its beloved Atlantic.
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GFS/UKMO somewhat better for Great Britain but poor for here dragging in south-westerlies as per Feb 2012. I really hope the ECM will deliver the goods later because I think we're seeing another one of the infamous winter disappointments. If it doesn't we may have to look to February for something substantial.
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The GFS may look fantastic for some but it doesn't make it far enough west, maybe better in the short term but the same rubbish in the long term. The UKMO ends on a spectacular note which is pleasing, now eyes will be on the GFS.
Edit wrong about the UKMO (saw steve's post
). Oh well. -
I would advise everyone to get a good nights sleep tonight (don't let those zonal nightmares scare you!) and wake up at least around 7 to compare all three major models. That way you won't be disappointed with one model and expect the other to be better, only to find out that its rubbish as well! 4am is probably the worst time to view models. Those long waits between each run would definitely make some doze off!
We shall see if tomorrow is make or brake. Remember, its just the weather! Night everyone!
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I think whichever model Titan loses the battle tomorrow will truly have to hang its head in shame, and we should never take it too seriously again! Even if it produces brilliant charts in the future, the memory of this shocking episode won't go away.
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What does WTF mean? I've seen it brandished a few times now.
Probably not best to quote it on here if you wish to continue posting.
Here's a watered down version: "What the Fudge!"
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Why does everyone keep saying it's ECM/UKMO against GFS? The UKMO may be cold but it's nothing like the ECM. NOGAPS 18z is more like the UKMO.
It's certainly not in agreement with the GFS. Halfway house perhaps?
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Is it not possible that this is an outlier?
We need to see the Ensembles. Does anyone know what time they are shown?
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Can I just ask a simple question? Has there ever been this much confusion and uncertainty within the models before forecasted cold spells which DID happen, or are they usually quite consistent and all in agreement with one another?
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I think the GFS is known to power up the vortex and the Jet in low resolution. We need to focus on the period up to 144hrs and the GFS is not pleasing to the eye in the high resolution.
There really is something bizarre about the models though. The GFS is the polar opposite of the ECM and most other models, even in the short term. We clearly have such a long way to go in ensuring accurate forecasting even in the short term.
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Greenland closed off at t114, I believe that's a new record. That's got to be the worst run so far.
We saw worse runs even last week. I've seen much worse from this Atlantic-obsessed model.
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The consistency of this is quite worrying. I think the GMA picked up on this as well. It really is odd that the GFS can jump ship so quickly from being the best among models to the worst.
We'll see how it goes.
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Its called fantasy ireland for a reason..anything can happen in 168 hours - especially because of caos theory
im not following you i swear!
Fantasy Ireland? My country is real!
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Truly atrocious GFS run in the longer term. It has the most bizarre obsession with ensuring south westerlies when there is ample opportunity to ridge northward. I will be interested to see if this operational run is part of the trend or just the mild obsessed outlier.
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I really can't understand the GFS. There is a clear opening around 160 or so hours and it insists on keeping the two highs apart, even when the lows retreat. It seems to be doing all it can to ensure the survival of south westerlies (even later on in the run).
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A good weekend from the GFS if it verifies, and reasonably good within the reliable period. After that its the usual GFS shortwave-obsession knocking down the high. No doubt a raging jet plus Bartlett will result.
I won't be paying much heed to it unless the ECM backs it up.
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Am I right in thinking that the GFS Ops goes pear shaped in the less reliable timeframe, and that it's still good short term? That's what really matters at the moment I think.
Great ECM btw!
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I'm still wondering if I'll get snow in Blackpool, we'll have to wait and see.
I think all of us should see snow in some snow should these models verify. If you live in North-West England or Northern/Western Ireland a northerly should do the trick (some of the later frames show this). An easterly would be the only good thing for my area because it would be able to cross a substantial body of water, whereas a northerly would leave us fairly out of the way (such as in December 2010).
I wish we could all share in the delight!
I suggest we all pack our bags and head to the south and eastern coasts! -
Just watched the weather forecast on Irish TV (they use the ECM for their forecasts). They're still going for westerlies next week! They obviously haven't seen the latest output!
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Given the inconsistency of the ECM I think we should at least wait until tomorrow morning's run confirms this before we get shovels ready. That is if the GFS or the UKMO haven't already done a runner on the idea of cold heading our way.
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Amazing 144hrs for all of the UK and Ireland! Snow galore if this were to pass (which it probably won't). Although the ECM has always been the most luring of models only to bite us in the behind after.
Still I could well be wrong. I'd certainly prefer this over the GFS.
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Little to be hopeful about if you live in the West, certainly over many parts of England and Wales, it's snow galore but just rain and a bit of chill in the air over most of Ireland.
Still amazing synoptics, especially for high resolution.
). Oh well.
I suggest we all pack our bags and head to the south and eastern coasts!
Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond
in Regional
Posted · Edited by snowstorm445
Certainly opportunities for the East Coast and Northern Ireland if the charts verify. Drier and probably milder further south and west, with uppers probably too warm to generate snow.