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Captain Shortwave

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Everything posted by Captain Shortwave

  1. Captain Shortwave
    Bit of a win win here, the storm misses us to the south and we end up in the dominant lows cold flow giving heavy wintry showers, especially in the west. Could be our lot though as the northern hemisphere profile looks very poor for our part of the world with the PV barreling around Canada with the other side of the pole seemingly free of any real energy. I guess we could bank the ECM for the start of next week as it doesn't bring destructive winds and the frontal rain stays mostly south of us. Plus the potential for some snow (especially over higher ground) I tried to be positive.... honest
  2. Captain Shortwave
    Evening all, fair to say there was chaos on the roads this morning, some of my work colleagues got in over an hour late as many of the roads around this area were closed due to flooding. The outllook continues to look as bad as even with storms tomorrow and possibly early next week. No end in sight to be honest.
  3. Captain Shortwave
    I don't care... I'll take it!!! Unless it's a dull cool stratus fed easterly, then I might emigrate
  4. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, it's raining again, the joys. According to my housemate parts of Saffron Walden are flooded this morning, must have had a lot of rain last night
  5. Captain Shortwave
    But if people had the opposite view, they would be shot down by dozens of people on here. I'm sorry but the signal is a red herring here as the models at the troposheric level struggle to accurately portray the downwelling of the strat warming. As many on the strat thread have said, the warming caused a temporary split for which it's effects lower down are not playing ball to remove the Canadian lobe of the tropospheric vortex, for which it's mere existence means a flat mobile westerly jet is more likely to be the outcome as opposed to an amplified Atlantic and any blocking which helps the UK. Take this day 9 ECM operational chart Taking any detail is worthless here but compare the Canadian/Greenland region with previous runs and ensembles. Simply put that massive, dominating lobe of polar vortex was not present to such an extent as it is now. It's not going away and still looks pretty strong compared to output over the last week which tried to remove this. 5 days ago the 2 storms now forecast for next week didn't exist with a slacker calmer pattern showing over the UK, which is now being shown to be wrong. I hate being the ghost at the feast but this is how I feel about where we are going. Best shot of any wintryness is from the westerly in any significant polar maritime flows.
  6. Captain Shortwave
    Words fail me here, southern England and Northern France would be in big trouble here.
  7. Captain Shortwave
    I just don't buy it to be honest. The cold spell of early Feb has turned into a washout and the next week which was supposed to offer a cold and slack pattern now looks set to produce yet more rain and severe gales. Whilst we are seeing effects on the troposphere by this warming, the fact remains that we cannot shift the Canadian sector far enough away or destroy it full stop to really get any benefit with the upstream pattern remaining fairly flat and mobile resulting in more depressions heading straight for the UK. ECM ens still show an unsettled picture but with a weakening of the jet in week 2, but we had this last week....... The fact the blob over Canada still exists by this time is not encouraging to me at all. As an aside I must apologise for the rather grumpy posts recently, I have to admit that I despise Autumnal weather and frankly the winter output has infuriated me and frankly part of me just wants Spring to arrive and end this 6 month spell of Autumn we have received.
  8. Captain Shortwave
    I guess there is an Atlantic ridge forming, just another storm to add to the 3 pages of storms so far this winter
  9. Captain Shortwave
    ECM is a horror show for the north west and Ireland. That storm doesn't seem to move with any real pace either when it hits the UK so prolonged damaging gusts and heavy rain look likely. Lets hope it gets toned down come verification. Yet more secondary features following which could easily bomb too.
  10. Captain Shortwave
    Clouding over here, ready for round 22,374 of wind and/or rain of the winter season.
  11. Captain Shortwave
    Sigh February, the sixth month of Autumn.... will it ever end
  12. Captain Shortwave
    The issue with the pattern is something which was picked up on the pub run last night where energy over North east Canada never really clears away and if anything starts to redevelop into week 2. This has the side effect of engaging the lows further downstream and making them take a more northerly track. There are some hints of an Atlantic ridge developing in week 2 if we get a break, but apart from that it's get cool cyclonic conditions. Temperatures look average to slightly below overall after the end of this week. Cold enough for snow on higher ground and maybe to lower levels if one gets lucky. Rainfall again looks the wrong side of average for many.
  13. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, breezy but dry here at the moment.
  14. Captain Shortwave
    Rain and wind event number 7273 here now. The joys!!!
  15. Captain Shortwave
    Ouch, bomb chucked up the English channel For the broader picture, lets hope the GFS is wrong as by day 7 it's trying the redevelop the Canadian lobe again
  16. Captain Shortwave
    The GFS has taken the low for Friday even further north, so much so that the southern half of the UK is mild with 850's reaching +4C Saturdays low looks like it's been cranked up a notch too.
  17. Captain Shortwave
    There isn't any cold air in our general part of the world, just a lot of cool mixed out airmasses, tough ask if you ask me to get anything better than a cool cyclonic pattern for the foreseeable. Good for higher ground, rather doubtful elsewhere though with rainfall being the biggest concern for many. There is a good chance for some good convective activity with a cool unstable airmass and plenty of disturbances developing in the Atlantic. Away from frequent frontal systems there could be some interesting weather of the showery kind. Top up the thunderstorm counter perhaps.
  18. Captain Shortwave
    Hmm not good, next monday we see another low taking the same track as the one at the end of this week. More rain for the south And another one!!!!
  19. Captain Shortwave
    To be honest I'm struggling to see the positives here, I mean yes it could snow.... after about another 6 inches of rain has fallen from successive fronts as the low pressure train travels west to east over the UK. It all looks very marginal and for many the wrong side of it. The 850s are completely mixed out under the upper trough so it's -2/-3s generally with dew points probably not looking that great as we can't get a cold surface flow establishing off the continent. At this point in the season I rather have something to work with (a block) which can send some proper cold temperatures our way and what I certainly do not want is lots more rain. I mean many people are not going to celebrate if they get another half a foot of rain so that a sheep on top of a high hill in northern England gets snow. For the next 5 days temperatures look above average, well at least in the south with temperatures of 8-10C
  20. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, decent start to the day here. Looks like a good day before it all goes downhill for the rest of the week.
  21. Captain Shortwave
    Given 850's are positive south of the M4 and into East Anglia, I would say that the chance of snow is virtually nil Nothing else about the output needs to be said, I'm assuming duckweather.tv's model thread has had another 21 pages added since 5am this morning.
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Spring is a great season for all weather types, cold, warm, even hot come May. Also the convective season starts to kick off and the chances of constant rain and gales slowly gets replaced by a more changeable and showery nature as the embers of the polar vortex slowly die for another season. I would like to see a drier than normal Spring with most precipitation coming in the form of showers. A more amplified Atlantic pattern to deliver a few decent northerlies before we start to draw up warm air later on in the spring. Though personally I see March being a wet and slightly below average temperature wise month, April being average in both departments and May being warmer and drier than average as the Azores high slowly takes control on proceedings. Just an amateur guess mind you CFS seems quite keen on a fairly warm spring with rainfall being more showery.
  23. Captain Shortwave
    Well the arctic profile does look a little shaken up as we head into week 2 with no real amorphous blob staying in one place and the general trend for the tropospheric vortex to weaken somewhat. Trouble is the models seem to have reasonable agreement for the Atlantic profile to be a makeshift ironing board. no amplification whatsoever.
  24. Captain Shortwave
    We haven't evolved to have webbed feet..... just yet Of course getting 225% of the average rainfall in January is normal then
  25. Captain Shortwave
    Nice day again today, sun some, some cloud but a lot better than during the week. All downhill from here though
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