Snowy Easterlies
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Posts posted by Snowy Easterlies
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yeah things are further west but heights are also a bit further south too, i will wait till the rest of the run finishes before judging though
Edit block is a lot stronger at T192 pressure might be a bit to high for most though, except for the southeast, a very cold run though and atlantic is further away, deep FI the high goes to greenland
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light drizzle here and im not far from camb
Edit sleeting now
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this is unbelievable my lamppost outside my house has decided to stop working tonight, bloody typical
anyway im only 30m ASL so im not getting excited, probably be sleet here
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Ok: hot off press: based on new UKV, which represents quite a marked escalation, we are upping snowfall issues to 5cm plus in areas N of London, especially Herts, Bucks, Beds, across Chilterns to Oxon. Concern now re potential disruptive impacts tomorrow AM.
thats a big upgrade, i wasn't expecting anything tonight or tomorrow apart from maybe a flurry or two
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so with all this talk of good of good signals, the PV etc everytihing can all be ruined by a measly shortwave
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I think the lack of comment on the 144hrs UKMO says it all
A poor run imo, let's hope the gfs has spotted a new trend
In general I think the gfs is leading the charge this Winter and the UKMO has temporarily reached the cannon fodder!
it will be sods law if UKMO was right this time after that cock up it made when it was showing cold and snow a week a go only for it to implode at the last minute
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Too bad for you, it fell to -4C here, with a max of 2C, resulting in a subzero mean for the day.. look at other locations outside your own back yard.
i do look at other locations but i don't live there do i, also call me selfish but i don't care if its -4 in leeds, like im sure you wouldn't care if i had 8 inches of snow and you got nothing, just telling it like it is
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i know its all about lag affect, but nights at end of november are way shorter than end of April, so going from 2c at 3pm today to only -1c tonight is not a big difference, although it will cloud over at about 4am
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No shocks that cold spell vanished off the charts, bog standard then, a frosty night tonight and another tommorow night at least, all very zzzzz though.
i need to learn how to moan like you and not get slated for it lol
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it was only 2c here today, pretty decent, but shame the nights won't be that cold, only -1 tonight forecast, hardly notable for the end of november, i get colder nights at the end of april in some years
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ECM at 120 markedly better than the GFS.
GFS
ECM
#*Sigh* you never learn do you GFS.
can you explain to me why the GFS is wrong and the ECM is right at T120 ?
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spot on, you were right, although that potent spell in early feb was decent for me, but it only lasted about 5 days the rest of the winter was total crapWhen people keep saying it's only October then it's only November! Now it will be it's only December winter will come. Their eternal optimism and denial of the facts is astounding. As far as I am concerned we should expect at least 1 frost day in October,7 in November and one or two snow showers in November. We have had the second mildest November on record. Early December does not look good. So will they be saying it's only January give it time?
Just got to face facts it's been pants so far!
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So, let me get this straight, you look at one of the 20 ensemble members, at 336- and show me a chart where this a low nearby the nation, which is under below average upper air temperatures, but you decline to show the more closer term solutions that the same member shows beforehand- which show very cold easterlies and a Greenland high at D10, not D13 as your chart shows.
Why are we judging this on 'significant cold'? No 'significant cold in 14 days'. Tomorrow and this weekend look like having sharp frosts, and very low maxima, especially in the north. Afterwards, there is a tendency for a battleground, a 2-3 day 'milder' (less cold) interlude- before a slider low through the UK on a NW-SE tint; there is afterwards a good likelyhood of cold and wintry weather, especially in the north.
The stratospheric conditions are becoming more conductive, the vortex is notoriously weak, the H5 anomalies are positive, the ensemble means show colder than average weather for the next 2 weeks- and there is no signs of this stopping soon.
And yet people are complaining because we are not managing to get 'significant cold' on this small island on the edge of the atlantic...
It is going to get cold, colder than usual, and the atmosphere is conductive to something more substantial, but people complain because the NWP aren't providing December 2010 synoptics...
the timeframe from that chart i posted is irrelevant because im saying that kind of chart can happen, i have seen quite a few ensembles members like that this week and last, my point is we could see a fat greenland high and still be in average or just below average temps, if you have a look at the uppers on that run they are not that cold apart from the north, if we get a pressure rise to the south who cares if there is a lot of northern blocking about still because it won't benefit us that much, like the chart i posted showed, anyway im not saying thats gonna happen im just saying it could happen, if we got a west based NAO or blocking that is too far north, then the teleconnections will still be technically correct because there is blocking, just sadly other things don't fall into place for our island and we might get nothing
just to clarify my point, that whole run on that ensembles member i posted is not very cold and tell me where is the raging easterly,despite a nice greenie high, the flow looks very slack with uppers at about -4 its all conjuncture anyway
plus i agree with polar warsaw and Crewe, people on here want snow, not a few chilly days of dry cold, people make out that this current spell is unheard of in December when its actually not, if we had dry ice days then at least that would be good for now
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http://modeles.meteo...-2-1-336.png?18
look at that wonderful greenie high, but then look at our island, nothing special, people need to stop obsessing about the state of the vortex because too many things need to go right for us, if this happens we could not be more unlucky, its not actually bad for the north ,if you run through the rest of the run, but there is no proper cold really, and there is no strong easterly or northerly blast, just slack cold conditions a bit like now
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i must say people like snowy eastly and ian brown get a lot of uncalled for flak because they try to bring some realerty in to the discussions ok ian brown not all the time how ever he did say people r over milking the cold snap, sorry if i afend the cold fans and i am one of them.
i must say people like snowy eastly and ian brown get a lot of uncalled for flak because they try to bring some realerty in to the discussions ok ian brown not all the time how ever he did say people r over milking the cold snap, sorry if i afend the cold fans and i am one of them.
thanks, i love snow as much as anyone, im not a WUM, when i see good charts in the reliable time frame i get excited, i don't get excited at "potential" at T180
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can someone tell me where this powerful arctic high is, because i can't see one in the reliable time frame, and even if there is one its not having a real affect on our island for next week
your right Zakos, there is no strong block, its just a ridge to the north west now, but the models were showing a stronger block some days ago, so my belief on the models overestimating heights SOMETIMES holds some validity
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great post Azores Hi not sure i like your name though lol
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Those of us in the West felt last February was a non event really, uppers weren't terrible cold resulting in freezing rain for a few days, which was awful.
yeah i did say it wasn't nationwide, but here it was still a decent cold spell albeit i only had 3 inches it was the hard frosts that were impressive
i keep hearing that last winter was awful, from people on here close to my area, no the majority of the 90s and 00s were awful
i know its only november/early december, but this cold snap coming up is nothing compared to feb of this year
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we acutally had quite a potent cold spell in feburary this year, ok so it wasn't a snowfest, and it wasn't nationwide, but i recorded -13c and a few -7c minimums in that spell, people seem to forget that and classed is as a totally mild winter
if we had to wait till February again for a decent cold spell then i suspect that it will soon be forgotten again if it only lasted a week like this year
its best if snow and cold is spread out over three months, a 10 day spell in dec, jan and feb would suit me, so 30 days in total, is that too much too ask ?
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For me Dec 2010 yes, my biggest single fall was about 6 or 7 inches, but places only 15 miles away got 2 foot, 2009/2010 here was a stonker but i lived in Salford back then, both very good though compared to the dross before then.
but do you still rate the 80s as better than 2009 and 2010, dec 2010 was very good here but that was because the previous decade was total crap so even the 6 inches i got felt like a proper pasting in 2010
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The NH charts drive what happens on this island (and the littler one next to us for our Irish/N.I. cousins), people should be looking at them. If we're sitting having the same conversation three months from now after a whole winter of near misses then fair enough, but it's not even December yet. Have patience SE!
true but blocking does not guarantee uk cold and snow, so we could see a big fat greenie high, and we could still be on the mild side of it if other things don't fall into place, i saw plenty of examples of this in the ensembles over the past couple of weeks
theres isn't an ensemble archive is there ?
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And the reason i dont get excited by half an inch of snow is not because i am 15 and only remember 2010, its because i remember the 80s when we used to get decent winters every year.
do you think 2010 was overrated, it was pretty good here, but its nothing compared to 1963 or 47, or even some snowy spells in the 80s although i was too young to remember but i have photos of it 87
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Now go through the archives (northern hemisphere).. for this time last year including the dates in my signature and look at the profile of PV and the pole in general. Tie in the fact we have a neutral enso winter ahead and you'll see how blessed we really are as we head into the upcoming winter period.
yes the NH is better this year, but people have been saying that all month and what have we gained from it ? nothing, i think people take too much notice of the NH and don't see whats actually happening on this island
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Some devastatingly poor output this morning butis the ECM gonna save us at 216 again.
some realism at last
I keep saying it, but this is not poor output; sure, it may not be snowmaggedon but the blocking is there and the vast majority of the country remains below average... Not bad for early December!
no its not Bartlett stuff, but its just a nornal cold snap and us greedy lot want more than a few chilly days
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Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
if the block was a bit further north on the GFS that would be an epic easterly for england not just the southeast
UKMO looks better than previous runs but is slower than GFS