Snowshine
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Everything posted by Snowshine
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Started to turn cloudy and feels bitterly cold. I don't mind this cold with the sun out, but when it's overcast it might as well be mild (personal preference).
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Absolutely plastered with snow here
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Had 3 days of lying snow this year, which is pretty dire compared to other areas. Then again, what can you expect from Stratford? Found these map which places it among the least snowiest areas of the whole region (unsurprisingly).
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Streamer back over South Warwickshire - only it's running at minimum capacity now - and the sun is literally melting the dusting by the minute.
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A shift in wind direction to NE might actually give southern areas a chance seeing as everything coming from the East fizzles out over Northampton.
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Cold and dry on Saturday, milder and wetter by Monday. It doesn't look exciting by any means.
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It's not living in low ground that's the problem in this scenario, it's the positioning of the streamer. We were perfectly aligned at first, but it wasn't delivering much and the sun was too strong. When the right time came, it moved further north over Coventry , hence why they got proper coverings and we got dustings at best.
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Nothing to speak of in Stratford, we are just to the south of the streamer, similar situation in Warwick. Coventry seems to be in the perfect spot.
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Pathetic accumulation despite the showers, but looks like they've moved northwards approaching Coventry so not expecting anything else for now. Certainly not a repeat of 2018, but at least some of the East Midlands is getting some much deserved snow!
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Snow has definitely picked up here (i.e. not powder), but clearly it is struggling to settle.
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Thing is the sun is melting it rapidly - nearly all of it has melted here.
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These showers are really not delivering, in fact it looks like some of the dusting has melted with the sun sporadically coming out.
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PPN definitely weakening as it approaches the West Midlands. Flurries at best.
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The AROME isn't showing snow in the current time frame, but I agree that it will be showers that most areas will depend on. But as ever, they are very hit and miss - one area may be dumped with snow, and just down the road they are wondering what all the fuss is about. I am hopeful that the majority of the West Midlands will eventually get snow, but I'm just not very confident about this weekend.
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Seems that the East Midlands is rather likely get some much deserved snow on Sunday, but in contrast it doesn't look quite so good for the rest of the Midlands. I'm hoping that the precipitation will remain further westwards on Sunday than is currently being modelled so that it will affect a much wider area. I would say that there is a 75% chance of decent snow cover in the East, and up to 33% in the West. 
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Flood risk tomorrow seems relatively high tomorrow across some areas, already a number of flood warnings covering the Severn and Avon. I personally think it warrants a rain warning.
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This is often the case in Warwickshire (and the South Midlands), we don't do particularly well when it comes to these 'marginal' events. It always seems to be too warm by a degree or two. Central/North Midlands always seem to perform better in these scenarios. The forecast for Saturday is one such example of this:
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18Z is disappointing, most models are suggesting that precipitation will fall as rain. There is another day left, but I personally don't think this will deliver widespread snow.
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My main concern for Saturday is whether it will be cold enough for snow, and more importantly whether it will settle on the ground. The most recent snow warning shows a high level of uncertainty, and is currently a low-level yellow warning.
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Saturday could be interesting, but there is high amount of uncertainty as to whether temperatures will be low enough for snow to fall or even settle.
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I would question the accuracy of the radar currently, because it took longer to start snowing here than it suggested, and it still hasn't stopped despite no PPN showing over us, although it is light.
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5cm in Stratford which is a nice surprise, and still very light snow. Hopefully that pivot will give some more later - can't complain though.
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This is a dire situation here (Stratford). There's clearly some splitting going on and we seem to perfectly positioned in the centre of it!
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Given the increased likelihood of a widespread snow event I would expect to see an amber warning issued relatively soon - mostly targeting southern/central areas of the region.
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The GFS and ICON are so far the most favourable for snow across the region, and APERGE/AROME are by far the least favourable. I really just think it is a matter of waiting for later updates to get more clarity on just how far north/south this snow will be.
