Barry12

We now have the ECM, GFS P and the GEFS hinting at a possible pattern change from boxing day onwards, and the Met Office have also been hinting at that possibility based on there Glosea5 model. So it's not just a case of 'the ECM being over amplified at day 10' as I suspect some will claim. We have cross model agreement and I'm optimistic something is brewing as we head towards New Year.

There seems to have been somewhat of a vicissitude today, although I'm sure the morning will behold a better set of charts for us to digest. No dead cert pattern change obviously, but good trends. Simple innit!

Evening all, If the GFS P is correct then any mild weather will be very short lived, with cold and wintry weather featuring over the Christmas period. December would surely finish as below average, which would mean most seasonal models were incorrect about December. If so, then I don't think we need to worry to much about the seasonal models predictions for the rest of Winter.

Looks alright to me?

Next week will predominately have average to below average temperatures, with the exception of Wednesday. Overall, next week will be colder than average, so the CET will probably be lower than it is now. If you don't understand that, then there's nothing I can do...

Average to below so far this December, as the chart below backs up:

How have I contradicted myself? slightly above average temperatures doesn't mean mild. Next week, with the exception of Wednesday, temperatures will be average to below, so I'm not sure how it looks like going above average.

Last winter we would see cold charts pushed back continuously, this winter it seems the opposite with any mild weather pushed back well into FI. Apart from some slightly above average temperatures it remains below average throughout the reliable, looks like December will finish below average, while not massively so it is 1-0 to the OPI right now in my opinion, as most seasonal models predicted a mild December. If they were wrong about December, surely they can be wrong about the winter as a whole?

You're taking details at face value when they will change, predicting precipitation at that range is pointless. The point is snow is *possible* to lower levels in the south.

That's strange considering the fact there was snow to lower levels Thursday night into Friday with -3/-4 uppers. There is -6/-7 uppers on that chart including in the south. Why would snow not be possible?

Afternoon all, while everyone is looking at the potential end of December pattern change, I thought I'd take a look at the end of the week into the weekend. During Friday evening we get another cold PM airflow, with the cold air moving south into the UK. Initially, this will only effect the Northern half of the UK. But, snow will again be a possibility for some, especially over higher ground after a temporary mild spell. As we move into Saturday temperatures start to struggle, snow would be possible at lower levels, especially for the Northern half of the UK. Sunday would be the day that things start to get really interesting though, with snow possible to lower levels in the south. We may not have to wait until the end of December to see widespread UK snow. Yes, this is at day 7-9, but it is interesting to look at seen as though next weekend could be the time the snow wait is over, and would pretty great to consider it was before any possible pattern change.

The theme continues on GFS 18z with the Azores high backing further west again, which results in the mild air being even more brief before the cold PM airflow moves in. Snow to lower levels in the North would be possible again from day 7 onwards if this run verified. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121218/gfs-1-174.png?18 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121218/gfs-1-192.png?18 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=204 Mild air does return at 228 hours, but as ever will it make it into the reliable?

8

The mild weather has continuously been pushed back over the last couple of weeks on the models, and any mild weather that does verify is very short lived, before a return to a cold PM airflow. This might be because the Azores high has continuously been forecast to push in, but as we get into the reliable it is pushed further west. My prediction is that the pattern change will involve the Azores high trying to push in, but will end up being forced N/NE, resulting in a cold Easterly flow. If this does happen, then hats off to Tamara and others for predicting the end of December pattern change, which now has some support from the Glosea5 and ECM clusters. The chart below maybe?

Thats the GFS P, GFS has been out ages.

Potential for snow to lower levels at day 7 and 8- One to watch out for.

Very bad, 10 months since I saw snow, 20+ months since I seen settling snow.

Anywhere getting snow around huddersfield/leeds?

Didn't sound good on Look North, mostly rain away from the hills according to paul hudson.

pretty sure its sleeting

This looks good for 6am Friday

Yeah Paul Hudson said some snow to lower levels possible but mainly over hills, he may just be waiting until tomorrow to ramp a bit more!

Let's hope so

I haven't looked at the CET myself, I was just going by what Steve Murr said: 'As for the models the reality is all the Model LRF's & METO were milder than ave & at this stage with the projected CET to the 15th is going to be around 4-4.3c (~ 0.7-1c below norm )' I did also say 'based on the 06z GFS', in the next 16 days most look below average temperature wise, with 2-3 days average or slightly above. We'd have to have a very mild last week of December for the CET to not end up below average. I can say its very likely based on the models. I was reading throughout November about a big pattern change during the middle/end of December, and they did seem fairly confident of this happening, which is why I was disappointed. I'm not really on the ramp, all I said is January is looking 'interesting'. I don't see anything that interesting this side of Christmas, but snow is still possible for the North.

Based on today's 06z GFS it does look like there is a strong possibility now of getting a below average December. The CET is forecast to be 0.7-1C below the average for the 15th, and with the PM incursions looking like continuing into the Christmas period this looks like almost a certainty now. So far we've had snow for many places, and more snow is forecast to continue during this coming week. Snow is possible at lower levels with 2-5cm possible for places in Northern England. While the south is unlikely to get much snow at lower levels this side of Christmas, there has still been plenty of frosts, which makes it a lot better than last year. Many of the LRF's, including the Met Office model were forecasting an average/mild December, so that's already 1-0 to the OPI in my opinion. January is still looking interesting to me, with the stratoshperic warming continuing to show during the Christmas period. A quick look at the cold and snow chances this week: Thursday Thursday will feel bitterly cold with snow for Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland. Friday # Friday will feel like the middle of Winter in Norway with highs of 0-2C in the North, and feeling like -5 to -8 in parts of the North. More snow for Northern England and Scotland. Saturday The South will join the rest of the UK on Saturday with highs of just 2-3C, and again it will feel far colder than that with feel like temperatures widely below freezing. I'd wrap up warm in Central Scotland with it feeling below -10C! Precipitation does look minimal, but wherever there is any it will surely fall as snow even at lower levels. So yeah, this position in December isn't bad at all!