Barry12

Christmas day sure looks better on the 18z Changed from +4 uppers to -4 uppers :smiliz19:

GFS 18z is much better at day 5, far better heights moving into Greenland and colder air moving in quicker Nothings over till the fat lady sings...

The models have definitely downgraded today, I don't think anyone will dispute that. But, Christmas day and Boxing day are still looking cold, white Christmas for a few up North I'd say.

Days 8-10 will inevitably change tomorrow, so I think we should wait until this mornings runs to see where we are. If the model output is poor tomorrow then maybe we can throw in the towel for anything very cold before New Year. Still, the ECM is showing a cold Christmas and Boxing day, and snow is possible to lower levels in the North.

Not bad for Christmas Day A cold North Westerly flow with -4 uppers covering the whole of the UK, -6's touching Scotland. Certainly not a mild boxing day either

There will be big changes over the next 7 days, so if your a mild aficionado I'd suggest making the most of the mild weather over the next few days. Things gradually turning colder as we go through the Christmas period. There will be snow for many in my opinion, including to lower levels in the south. Friday By Friday Afternoon, the mild air will have moved out of the UK, it will be cold in Scotland and Northern Ireland with snow returning to higher ground over Scotland. Saturday On Saturday temperatures will be around average for the south and below for the North. It looks like being a relatively dry day. Sunday Sunday will be mild for the south and around average for Scotland, it will be wet to the NW. Monday On Monday it will remain mild for England and Wales, but it will be rather cold in Scotland. Tuesday On Tuesday it will be mild for most, with parts of Scotland below average. There will every wet and windy weather. Christmas Eve On Christmas eve evening is when the cold air starts moving in, the south will manage another mild day but it will start to get cold for all as we move into the early hours of Christmas day. It will be a white Christmas eve for parts of higher ground over NW Scotland. Christmas Day On Christmas day it will be around average for the South, but below average for the North. It will be a white Christmas for parts of Scotland and NW England. Boxing Day Boxing day morning will be cold with temperatures just above freezing, more snow for parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and NW England. So... It will be mostly average to above average over the next 6 days, before a cold front moves in on Christmas Eve bringing snow to Scotland, and lowering temperatures for all. Christmas at the moment looks seasonal but nothing severe, with snow for Scotland and NW England. Although, given it's 7 days away there's still time for change. The next 5 days are pretty much nailed on, so if you like the mild weather make the most of it. The Christmas period into the New year will be below average with snow. Very positive outlook from the Met Office supporting the operational models we are currently seeing. The 12's are rolling out, so hopefully some upgrades for Christmas day.

Are you feeling okay IDO? With both the GFS and ECM ensembles better than the operationals, I'm expecting the 12z's to be even better this evening.The Christmas period will most likely be cold with snow for some, that is the most important trend to take in my opinion.

I think I'm in the highest part of the town at 130m, it's about 70 in the town center! Yeah I'm hoping so, I've put £50 at 5/1 on snow at Leeds Airport (200m) haha

Yeah you'll be good at 250m!

If you expect plenty of 'chopping and changing' in the next few days, how you say theirs very little chance of snow in the next 13 days?

Christmas day is actually colder on the 12z than the 00z

Not bad for Christmas day -4's covering the whole of the UK

I'm dreaming of a... highs of 2-3C with -6 uppers, any precipitation has a good chance of falling as snow.

Widespread snow on the 27th and 28th of December if the GFS 12z is correct

Things have changed a lot for Christmas day from a couple of days ago. This is the chart from 3 days ago: This is the chart today: From +6 uppers for some to -6 uppers... wasn't long ago that people were mentioning a mild Christmas day

You were right Shannon love.

They look poor to me to be honest.

The trend is growing now for a cold and wintry Christmas period, both the GFS and GFS P 06z and now 12z have shown this. UKMO also looks like it would go that way to with it being more amplified. This is why it's better to look at the operational rather than the mean charts, as they are much slower to spot a trend. ECM should be interesting tonight!

A cold and snowy boxing day on the GFS 12z

Heights moving towards Greenland at day 8 and a cold North Westerly flow arriving for Christmas eve. Should be a cold Christmas day and wintry for some. Much better than recent mild ones!

The Polar Vortex migrating to the East towards Scandinavia and Siberia in the reliable will surely benefit us down the line. All Winter we've had the Polar Vortex sending down chunks of vortex towards us bringing in wet and windy weather. This is surely the most important thing we want to see happen if we are wanting a pattern change, especially one with heights being able to move up from the Atlantic to Greenland. If we do get a flow from the East we won't have to worry about not having a cold pool.

Go to the top of the pennines

Let those who seek the mild weather enjoy it, for the cold weather will dominate into the Christmas period, with snow falling on thy ground, with cold sweeping down thee land.

IDO, I remember Ian Fergusson saying the Met Office use the operational at longer range rather than the mean.It's looking like the Christmas period will be cold and wintry, numerous runs now have shown this. A cold Boxing Day has been shown for days on the models, yes it may only be temporary but it's looking likely now. The mean will always be behind at that range, as any signal will be muted as Steve Murr has said many times.

But, it would still bring cold and widespread snow to the UK... Which is what most of us are looking for!