The ECM and UKMO are both in agreement now up to day 6, day 5 is very cold with snow showers falling to lower levels, especially in the SE. This will be the first time since March 2013 that people in the south have seen snowfall, so there is certainly nothing to be pessimistic about. Followed by a cold UK high locking in the cold. At this range, it is highly unlikely the GFS is right, and thankfully I probably won't have to jump in the North sea.