Barry12

Another week of zonal and average/mild weather is certain. Thereafter, In my opinion the stratospheric warming will start to take effect and we will be looking at much more interesting charts as we move into the second week of January. The ECM is leading the way with the wave 1 and wave 2 activity in the stratosphere. I expect the GFS FI to start looking interesting in the coming days with splitting of the polar vortex, this may take a few days longer to show than the ECM. Although, the GFS P should be a lot better in this regard. Expect the ECM to lead the way in the NH pattern change, some more interesting charts should start to show in the day 8-10 range as we move through the week.

I'm not ignoring the charts, I'm ignoring the charts from day 10 onwards, as they rarely verify. The Met Office would have a very easy job if they could write of 2 months for cold just because there isn't a SSW... The CFS showed a blocked and snowy episode at day 57, thats how I know!

The model thread - the most depressing place on the internet :smiliz23:

There will be, end of January is my guess.

Day 10-16 charts are rarely accurate IDO, no matter what period of weather we are in. Most people know this as a basic fact, I'm surprised you haven't realized this by by now We don't need a SSW for special cold in the UK, it helps but it's not a must. December 2010 being a prime example. With stratospheric warmings, who knows what the NH profile could look like in a couple of weeks.

It's currently the 30th December, many of us have already seen falling and laying snow. For those of us in the North, we've had laying snow since boxing day. In the UK in December, that is actually a pretty good result. The models show the next 16 days to be zonal with temperatures around average, but in reality from day 10 onwards the charts will change everyday. So at most, we can have confidence in what the next 7 days will be like. There have been numerous occasions where the outlook has drastically changed in just a couple of days. As people have already said, when the outlook is showing cold, anything after day 4 is uncertain, yet when the models are showing zonal conditions the models are apparently completely accurate throughout it's run. In a weeks time, we will probably be looking at completely different charts, just like we were a week ago today.

The current output goes out to 16 days, which takes us out to the middle of January. So how, based on current model output can you write the entire winter off for cold? If we were in a cold spell with no end in sight, I assume you would be thinking it's going to last all winter? No, you'd be going on about how it's going to break down and where going to return to Zonal weather.

Moral of the story: try to predict the weather over a long period of time, and you will be made to look a fool!

But they won't verify, pointless frosty mate

Yes there is, James Madden might use it

The Met Office don't bother with the GEFS either IDO I will despair if the GEFS go out to 720 hours, as we will then surely get day 32 charts posted as proof a month will be zonal

yeah but you couldn't be certain of that, still I got 5cm+ of snow on boxing day so I can't complain.

I'm starting to think the Met Office's Glosea5 model was right in predicting a mild winter

There's some nonsense posts about the ECM from some members, but those stats prove the ECM is the best model up to day 10.

What's remotely interesting about strong winds?

IDO, if the ECM is so useless past day 6, why do the Met Office use it over the GFS?

The GFS P is the full upgrade I think

WE NEED A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING!

Looks like the GFS has moved towards the ECM tonight with more amplification. The GEFS have been useless so far this winter, especially from day 7 onwards. I suppose this is why the Met Office don't take the GFS into account when making there forecasts.

That's true. But it's the same posting one mild chart and declaring it's going to be zonal for weeks.

Yes, winter is over. The snow in my back garden is spring snow :smiliz64:

it's settling everywhere here!! :smiliz19: gone from no cover to a full cover very quickly

It's been snowing moderately/heavy here for past hour, it's starting to settle on cars/roofs.

Patience...it's coming.

Yes IDO, it's going to be cold and wintry over the next few days. Which is rather confusing, since the day 10-16 mean charts you posted didn't show this at all?