Barry12

ECM looking more like the UKMO at 120

I know, but if theirs uncertainty at day 5, surely anything after that is also uncertain? Or is there more support for a more zonal period after?

In reality that is very unlikely to verify since it's at day 15 The Met Office as Ian Fergusson has said are not ruling out anything after 120 hours, so looking at a 360 hours chart is rather pointless, but each to there own I suppose...

Apart from the inital Northerly that could bring snow to lower levels on Sunday on the GFS P, both models are very boring indeed

Widespread snow possible at day 6 on the GFS P :smiliz19:

London Heathrow = no Belfast = no Cork = no Aberdeen = yes Edinburgh = yes Liverpool = no Manchester = no Cardiff = no Norwich = no Newcastle = yes P.S how come no Leeds airport, I've got a bet on that

IDO, we don't know what will happen after day 6 with all the model divergence. Yet you make statements like 'January could be a long month', that is a bit misleading. You post day 16 charts to back up your views, which is rather pointless since they change everyday. Since it's Christmas why don't you post the day 16 GFS P chart, it might cheer you up

I can't see these 'cold setups' anywhere, what 'festive fun' are we about to have? One day on the GFS looks interesting as we get cold uppers moving in, but they don't exactly last long. And anything interesting is 8+ days away... If you live in the south, any chance of low level snow is very unlikely!

All the JAM is annoying now, the 'experts' on here write long detailed posts on why they expect a pattern change to cold but they seem to be pushing back there time frames for this continuously, first it was the middle of December, then the end of December, now into January... From now on, unless the real experts, I.E Ian Fergusson/The Met Office are forecasting a cold spell I'm not going to believe anyone! Also 'Patience' was the key word from last Winter, I'm still waiting to see proper cold and snow

GFS 12z has moved towards ECM at 120

The GFS 18Z is terrible, the GFS P 18z is good...

GFS P moved towards ECM at day 6 perhaps...

Looking at day 9 and 10 on the ECM I'm starting to wonder if the ECM would actually be the better solution for cold.

GEFS mean looks good at day 7

Nope not really, I still wouldn't believe it.

When the UKMO, GFS and GFS P all disagree with the ECM at 120 hours, I don't see how it's 'likely' to be correct...

Bring it on I say, blizzards are possible.

UKMO, GFS, GFS P all agree at 120 hours, the ECM will backtrack on this run... :smiliz19: :w00t: :smiliz64:

ECM mean looks more like the GFS/GFS P at day 8. Expect a backtrack from the ECM in the morning.

It's mad Friday so I thought I'd do something mad and take a look at next week according to the GFS 12z... Monday Mild for England and Wales Average for Scotland and Northern Ireland Mostly dry Tuesday Mild for England and Wales Average for Scotalnd Wet for most of us Wednesday Average temperatures for England and Wales Below average for Scotland Mostly dry Christmas Day Average for England and Wales Below average for Scotland Dry for most Boxing day Below average for the whole of the UK Snow for NW England and NW Scotland So basically it will be mild until Wednesday/Christmas eve before colder air moves in, parts of NW Scotland and NW England could see some snow even to lower levels...based on the Met Office outlook I expect the post boxing day period to trend colder with snow to lower levels in the North, and I expect the ECM to be far better tomorrow.

The ECM is out on it's own tonight, that's not to say it's wrong of course. A look at the other models at day 8... ECM: Based on this I would say the ECM solution is very unlikely, if the ECM mean looks more like the other models, we could almost discount this. But you never know.

Good set of runs so far on the GFS, GFS P, and UKMO. Both GFS's look very interesting at day 8

That Met Office outlook is brilliant :w00t: If that outlook is correct we should surely be seeing upgrades in the models over the coming days :smiliz19:

Yes, very mild...

Looking at the ECM mean charts I don't think that's the question at all.