Barry12

make of this as you will

Maybe better blocking, but the angle of blocking wasn't good, we need steve murr!

I know

-1.89 on gfs 12z, nearly an increase of +1

Nice run from GFS 12z

that would of been a great thread

The ECM 00z is an interesting run, especially day 10. GFS 6z has a big cool down this time next week, with a cold N/NW flow.

If we get an OPI lower than -2 we are in a great position, only winter 2009/10 will have had an OPI lower from 1976.

Thanks. get ready folks...a repeat of winter 2009/10 looks unlikely, because were getting 1962/63 repeat.

If it was 2.19 I'd be crying right now

So it will be a super duper -AO then? get ready folks...a repeat of winter 2009/10 looks likely

GFS 12z is looking good, polar vortex very weak and some good blocking Some strong heights moving into the arctic on ECM

Stronger heights over the arctic on the 18z, the polar vortex is basically non-existent.

Once a strong block forms it can last for weeks sometimes months. Last year when the polar vortex got it's strength going in October/November it never really weakened. The weaker the polar vortex now the harder it will be for it to gain it's strength later on and into winter.

Much colder at day 8

The coldest November in 100 years is possible looking at the models

So you live in France and Yorkshire? but have been weird when tour de france was in yorkshire. the models are bad, snow is coming

Well if the opi's right then we've basically one of the main ingredients in the bag already in the form of a -AO

It goes both ways though, it's only October so you shouldn't be drawn into the hype and excitement, but it's only October so how can you 'see' little to get excited about. What are you seeing? if it's a gut feeling, then it's no better than someones gut feeling it will be the coldest winter on record.

It's looking good for this winter -Negative OPI -Early warming in the stratosphere -Good snow cover -my Dad's friend knows someone in the met office who said it be cold

Snow for scandi

It'll be positive tomorrow

If we can get above average temperatures in the stratosphere, combined with a strong negative OPI, then we will be in a very good position indeed. We will surely be able to say with almost certainty, that this Winter will be colder than last. It's going to be a very interesting month of developments

This Winter will be the coldest Winter in living memory, make sure you stock up plenty of supplies. Water, canned food and extra blankets are the most important. Make sure you have these for around the middle of November, as the surge of cold arctic air will hit our shores causing devastation to the land during the end of November, this will continue well into April. I can not tell you the means of how I gathered this information, but let's just say the UK government are preparing like never before. You heard it hear first.

Start of November.