Barry12

Well, the crystal ball was right.

My prediction May 30th 2014

The ECM 0z WILL moderate the cold, just can't see any snow on the horizon.

The relatively warm and dry weather continues in the reliable on the GFS 12z The cold has been downgraded from the 6z run at day 10, becoming cooler though but not cold enough for snow. UKMO at day 6 has high pressure in charge. ECM will be interesting tonight, does it get cooler and unsettled like the GFS, or does it stick with the high pressure?

If the ECM shows something similiar at day 10 then maybe we should take note, but for now it's just one GFS FI run which has no significance. All I see is the warm settled conditions being extended further and further

ECM has some lovely charts, warm and dry with high pressure fully in charge next week. The 240h chart is looking much less unsettled than last nights aswell, so the breakdown continues to be pushed back

Another good run from the ECM in the reliable to semi-reliable. Cooler unsettled weather just a fantasy on an island

As much as I like cold and snow, I think it's strutching at straws to say it will turn 'cold' during the end of March when it's the 5th of March. The cold in FI never materialised all winter.

Have you not seen the models? I expect a good update from the Met Office tomorrow

You were saying the GFS was the best model the other day?

Yes as far away as it has all winter, the models aren't showing Easterlies at all...

So far even the best ECM runs over the past few days have kept the cold to the East of the UK, so I'm not sure where we are going to get the cold from. I know all it takes is the pattern to be a few hundred miles further west and we can be in business, but we haven't actually seen that happen yet. We could get good synoptics and then easily still miss out on the cold. We need to see at least one run show the cold reaching the UK to start getting excited.

The -8 uppers are not too far away!

Most models only go as far out as 10 days ahead, with the GFS going out to 14 days, which at most takes us up to the 19th January, so how can you know what February will be like? Unless your basing it on the CFS which has been useless this winter.

The GFS could be consistently wrong for all we know.

Crewecold has promised us that January will be severely cold, so no need to worry

Sorry, but this 'less data' is a complete myth...

I can understand why a professional weather forecaster can find this set up interesting, due to the unpredictability of it all and the challenge of getting the forecast right, rather than a predictable set up such as a Bartlett high, where all you have to predict like other posters have said is the layer of clouds. Nevertheless, all this setup will most likely bring is heavy rain and some strong gales, and due to the fact this is very common in the UK, I just can't find it interesting. I saw someone on here say that heavy rain on there birthday was a treat, I just don't get it! If snow was just as common as rain and wind in the UK, I probably wouldn't be that interested in it either, but it's not that common which is why I find it interesting. The accuracy of the EC32 I'm sure is far better than say the CFS, but there comes a point where no matter how good the model is, it's going to struggle when forecasting up to 4 weeks out. So all I'm saying is not to take it too seriously, (other posters on here, not you! ). If it was showing a raging Easterly, I admit I'd probably take more notice of it, but I still remember the failed Easterly of last year, so I certainly wouldn't be backing it unless it was showing at T+72 hours or less.

All this talk about wind and rain is so boring, how anyone can possibly find it interesting I don't know - it happens all the time in the UK. First post I've seen writing January off based on the ECM32, which changes every single run, it could be showing raging Easterlys on it's next run, but no let's write 5 weeks off.

Looks like the snow prospects will start at around 4pm for our area It looks best for south Yorkshire though The snow then moves East With some showers in North Yorkshire later on Then in the early hours of Friday, snow looks likely for West Yorkshire, with Huddersfield, Bradford and Leeds in the firing line. Sheffield looks the place to be for a few hours of snowfall.

He know's that Netweather is far better than the dm forums though to be honest. Hopefully we get some snow here later.

Interesting GFS 18z from Boxing day onwards, with most of the PV moving East

Look North forecast looked pretty good for a few hours of snowfall in our area, Northern Ireland looks the best place to be though!

Whoooooooooo!!!!! ...sorry got carried away

The GFS always over does the lows, it'll never come off.