Barry12

Hopefully the ECM 12Z will be better than the 00z, preferably like the ensemble mean and then we can open the champagne to the first good start to Summer in 7 years!

From Liam Dutton on twitter 'Early days, but there are hints that high pressure may pay us a proper visit at the beginning of June, with sunshine and warmth. Stay tuned!'

Co-incidentally, I think the ECM op run is on the milder side of the extreme theme, certainly not without support, but definitely not a popular prognosis of the sharper cooler side of possibilities..

The Met Office will be in their office laughing at the models saying 'if only' while drinking their tea and eating their biscuits. Lets hope the ECM is as good as the GFS if not better

How come no ones posting anything about the 12Z's?

It's not just because of the mogreps, their professional meteorologist, it's not as simple as looking at a model, if it was anyone could do their jobs

The Met Office were suggesting a good start to June in their further outlooks before when the models were showing more unsettled weather. Now the models are suggesting high pressure bringing settled conditions their saying the opposite.

That is true, but I'm talking about warm temperatures into the 20's with prolonged sunshine. 16-17C is all we'll achieve in Yorkshire with sunny intervals, but it will be much better than today atleast

If the ECM stays on board with high pressure into June I will be much more positive, but has anyone noticed the good weather is always a week away!?

No model is consistently right, but they aren't consistently wrong like the GFS That's because it was 240 hours!

I said before the GFS was right, but this week couldn't be any different from what the GFS was suggesting. Whether the GFS shows cool with heavy rain or warm and sunny, I won't believe it. It was useless last winter, and it's useless now.

my moan is that the models wont show a heatwave.

All this model watching can be pointless at times, while the models were inconsistent, the Met Office were consistent the whole time, and consistently right

Latest GFS is a massive disappointment to be honest, seems so difficult to get warm and sunny weather in the UK. From now on lets just listen to the ECM.

The NAVGEM is also on board: As well as the JMA:

Even so, I'm happy with 5 sunny and relatively warm days

I've got a feeling the warmies will be popping open the champagne, once the GFS 12z and ECM 12z come out this evening, I except another improvement from the ECM. From no support at all to more and more support each run, you've got to give it to the GFS. Temperatures in the late teens to early twentys in the sunshine will still feel make it feel like Summer, especially for Scotland

How can anyone be negative looking at these charts? Puzzling. Feeling pleasant for England with temperatures widely getting into the late teens, apart from the far south. Temperatures not that good for much of England, still warmer of late though and feeling warm in Scotland with temperatures getting into the twentys. Feeling very pleasant for much of the UK with temperatures widely in the late teens, any many parts in West Wales and Cental England and a few places in Scotland reaching the twentys. South coasts are cooler though. Again temperatures widely getting into the late teens on Wednesday. Cooler in the west on Thursday but temperatures widely getting into the twentys in the East, probably a few places even reaching 23-24C Cooler in the west but temperatures again getting into the twentys in many parts of the south. The ECM is pushing high pressure closer to the UK on each run, so no turn around from the GFS at all, infact the ECM is looking more and more like the GFS on each new run. People are complaining that FI isn't good? thats after a week of warm and fine weather!

Seen this type of thing happening all winter, one model is consistent with it's outlook and the other models gradually move towards the consistent model each run, so by the time the models get closer to the timeframe there is much better agreement. Further ECM runs will move ever so more to the GFS, although I'd be more confident of this happening if the ECM was being consistent. yes i've edited this post a lot

The models will upgrade the warm and dry spell early next week in the coming days. Tuesday looks nice according to the GFS and if the Azores links with the Scandinavian high it could be hard to shift

The Met office forecast video for early summer/end of May shows low pressure bringing average rainfall and below average temperatures, yet most of the models show high pressure bringing in average to above temperatures and fine weather. Model watching seems pointless at times...

FI will change, it always does. Let's just hope the Azores high takes a Holiday come June and we see temperatures getting to 30C in the south!

Is 'southern UK' just the south of England? Or is northern UK just Scotland and northern Ireland?

Could reach 20C on Tuesday and Wednesday I'll be in ireland though!

I'm off to Ireland for a week on Saturday in West Cork, anyone what the weather will be like and the temperatures? also where I can watch weather forecast videos for Ireland, I can't find any! Thanks