Barry12

48 hours: 72 hours: 96 hours: 120 hours: (beautiful) 144 hours: beautiful 168 hours: nice 192: nice ECM has the GFS low pressure further north, out of the way

I doubt it, but under clear skies there is always a risk.

It's a long time since I've seen the UKMO much more positive than the GFS. Let's hope the ECM is more like the UKMO.

For once the UKMO looks like a better run than the GFS. Best place would certainly be Ireland on both runs

24 hours in and high pressure moves into Ireland and Scotland. 48 hours in and high pressure moves into the whole of the UK, settled and increasingly warm. 72 hours in and its another relatively warm and dry day for southern UK as high pressure is in control, although much cooler in North of the UK as high pressure has less of an influence, also some showers are possible. 96 hours in and the whole of the UK is very much under high pressure, although it will be cooler in the East, dry for all apart from the far North of the UK where there will be showers. 120 hours in and its a case of west is best, cooler in the East and some showers in the North East. Looks like Southern Ireland is the place to be with the best of the warm and dry weather. 144 hours in and its again west is best, much cooler in the East, especially east coasts and turning showery. 168 hours in and it's an improving story for all but the far North of the UK, much warmer in the East. 192 hours in and it's dry and warm for most, warmest in the East. In summary its an okay run, in the long term it's an upgrade on the 00z's but the whole run is a downgrade on the 12z yesterday. The low pressure in the North sea keeps temperatures limited especially for the East with some showers. Although still feeling pleasant in the sunshine but temperatures reaching 70f will be hard to come by in this run.

I'm afraid you're completely wrong there, and even if it did rain it would be overnight

Why people are worrying about 240 hours i do not know, and Gibby I don't understand why you talking about the ECM run being showery at the end, but don't mention all the warm and settled weather before it. Not having a dig, it just baffles me.

Would still be relatively warm and dry, also I was talking about Friday and the weekend.

The 18Z is looking good at the moment, high pressure building in nicely

Nice

The meto forecast should definitely change to something more positive if if this carries onto the 00z and we get a good ECM 12z.

Looks like an upgrade from the 00z UKMO run on the 12z too, just over to the ECM now..

24 hours in, High pressure edges into Ireland and Scotland. 48 hours in, high pressure forces itself into Northern and Western parts of the UK. 72 hours in, high pressure forces itself into the whole of the UK, resulting in a dry and a relatively warm day on Friday. 96 hours in and high pressure remains in control of the UK apart from the far North. Another relatively warm and dry day for most to start the weekend. 120 hours in and high pressures still remains in charge for the whole of the UK, although it has less of an influence on the far North of the UK, so cooler here but yet again dry and relatively warm for most, a nice weekend looks likely. 144 hours in and it turns more showery for the SE, but high pressure is going nowhere, feeling warm for most. 168 hours in and it's another fine and warm day for all, although cooler for the North of the UK. 192 hours in and yet again its a dry and relatively warm day for all with the exception of Western Ireland where it will be showery and cooler. In summary, it's a very good GFS run if you like warm and dry weather. Temperatures would be getting into the late teens to early twentys for most during during the first half of next week and the upcoming weekend.

JMA and BOM similiar to ECM

Let's hope the ECM +168 turns out like the NAVGEM +168

The UK seems to be getting a similiar climate as Iceland..

Well the GFS and UKMO didn't have this trough so lets hope it's wrong, it's only the best model in the 5 day period. But if it carries on the theme tomorrow morning I'm giving up model watching for a bit. Why is it so impossible to get a good summer!?

The ECM was not that bad, infact Friday looks high pressure dominated for the whole of the UK, which is an upgrade from the 00z. It only really starts going downhill from the +168 range, which is well into FI in my opinion. Also the step from +144 to +166 doesn't like right at all, I'm still positive

Summers over then? I reckon we will get a good June! ECM will be better than the 00z.

If ECM is more like UKMO, I will believe the UKMO. If ECM is more like GFS, then I will believe the GFS. No pressure on the ECM then

+24, high pressure looks quicker to progress. So does +48, NW-SE split looks likely though. +72, high pressure builds for all, apart from SE. +96, warm and dry for most +120, warm and dry for most, cloudier with a few showers in the SE. +144, warm and dry for most apart from extreme SE where it will be cloudier, cooler and more showery. In summary, it's an upgrade on this mornings 00z, but it's still not perfect. The SE looks less showery than previously.

GEM - Struggling to find a model not on the high pressure train.

BOM:

Also the Moscow Europe model agrees!

NAVGEM also on board the high pressure train, although much slower: