Barry12

GFS 120; GFS 144

The GEM has showed high pressure building again with no real high pressure breakdown two runs in a row, and the GFS is also showing this. Still doesn't mean it's right but adds some weight to it becoming the plausible outcome. As Frosty as said, the ECM ensembles make less of the trough with pressure building as well.

Can't believe how good the GEM is;

The movement of that low to the south is crucial, if like the ECM it moves into Europe then a warmer and drier outlook can be sustained, there will still be some showers but it is mostly dry. If it moves North like the GFS then it will be a lot cooler and unsettled. The low forming to the south of Greenland develops at +192 so there is a high chance it will be gone on the 00z.

The biggest difference with the ECM from the GFS is that the low to the south moves East into Europe instead of North into the UK. ECM GFS

please,

Differences between the UKMO and GFS at just 96 hours, UKMO looks much better especially for the south the low hits Scotland on the GFS whereas it stays east of Scotland on the UKMO. Also the UKMO doesn't have low pressure effecting the south as of yet with the south keeping the high pressure for longer. GFS keeps the high pressure for all at 120, the low to the SW is much nearer the UK on the UKMO. GFS at 144 is an improvement to previous runs with more settled conditions, UKMO at the same time seems better for more settled conditions, but if that low to the south moves further north there could be heavy thundery downpours. GFS at 168 and 192 show conditions deteriorating for the following weekend, with unsettled conditions arriving. Especially by Sunday as the low to the south moves North and effects the UK. Long term GFS is much better, low pressure stays firmly over Greenland with high pressure starting to push into the UK again in 12 days time. Hopefully this is a trend for the long term. The scary yellow colours don't attack Greenland on this run!!

That met office forecast has basically put every possible outcome 'there will be rain at times', 'it will be dry at times'. Anyway back in November 2012 I remember all the long term signals pointing to a easterly in December, it basically never came off. So regardless of what says what, nothing is ever certain. This time next week a lot will change, and I'm pretty sure the NAEFS and whatever else will be saying something different. No disrespect Snowking but how you can say what will happen in mid July, 6 weeks away I do not know, never mind October!

GFS has been going mad recently...

Parts of Eastern Iceland reaching 20C https://www.google.co.uk/search?um=1&hl=en&q=egilsstadir&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&biw=1360&bih=639&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=iw&ei=Dh-pUfzZBOXz0gXk7oGYDg#hl=en&sclient=psy-ab&q=egilsstadir+weather+forecast&oq=egilsstadir+for&gs_l=serp.1.0.0i22i30l2.8030.10449.0.11327.4.4.0.0.0.0.90.342.4.4.0...0.0...1c.1.15.psy-ab.z6bfOUvVaiE&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.47244034,d.d2k&fp=ad746c489e9ddf9a&biw=1360&bih=639

Another good, increasingly warm run

The Irish Met mostly use the ECM model for their forecasts.

seriously though they said it would feel cool...

I edited it and put June 2013, but it wouldn't let me upload it. Kinda ruined the joke

This doesn't look that warm to me, surely temperatures wouldn't be reaching 70f?

What would the temperatures be if this verified?

All good so far from the GFS with rising temperatures

Only 16-17C over the weekend and it was meant to be sunny and reach 20C here today and it's completely cloudy! not sure how you can call that 'warm' frosty. I know I am being imbyist but still. I won't be happy until we get a repeat of Summer 2006 where 30C was reached

Just wondering as I've never understood it my self, I think it's cool when you see lightning, but can't say I find them that interesting. I heard someone say they don't care about summer as long as there is a storm, but they only last a few hours!? Tornadoes and hurricanes are interesting, but storms are just storms

Surely it would turn cooler?

24 hours in and the high pressure builds into the whole of the UK. 48 hours in and only north of the UK is not under high pressure, but this is just temporary. 72 hours in and it turns increasingly warm as the ridge moves in, dry for most. 96 hours in and its a beauty, dry and warm for all. 120 hours is again very nice, pleasantly warm and dry for most. 144 hours in and it's again relatively warm, dry for most but some showers possible for the far south of the UK.

I find it hard to take the GFS seriously, it's useless in my opinion.

24 hours in and high pressure builds into the whole of the UK, bringing the first day of the settled and warmer spell under way. 42 hours in and only north of the UK isn't under the high pressures control, cooler than Friday but still feeling pleasant in the sunshine. 72 hours in and it's another fine and settled day as a ridge moves in. 96 hours in and it's another fine and increasingly warm day with 70F being reached. 120 hours in and it's another warm and mostly settled day as winds turn more North Easterly. 144 hours in (sorry it's late - I was eating, that's if anyone cares) and it turns increasingly humid as the air comes from the East, warm for all apart from eastern coasts. 168 hours in and it's warm for all, but with some showers breaking out, especially to the North of the UK. 192 hours in and it's much the same, warm with some showers breaking out.

There are no 'experts', nobody knows accurately what the weather will do next week, even Tamara All we know is that we are going to get a much drier and warmer spell.

18z GFS: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013052918/gfs-0-120.png?18[|img]