Kiwi

Had my map out.......I'm 9,000 metres south of the M4 central reservation Any chance of sleet for me? or should I head out for the nirvana of lands to the north?

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTY FIVE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:07pm on Saturday the 20th of February 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, NORTHWESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU FROM KOROLEVU TO KOROVOU,YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND OVALAU. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, KORO, NAIRAI, GAU AND BATIKI. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI. A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF FIJI. A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE [915HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4 SOUTH 178.7 EAST OR ABOUT 40KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF OVALAU OR ABOUT 90KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 6PM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 22KM/HR. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 230KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 325KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 20KM NORTHWEST OF NADI OR ABOUT 70KM SOUTHEAST OF VIWA 6AM TOMORROW AND ABOUT 120KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI OR ABOUT 110KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI AT 6PM TOMORROW. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVER HEAD OR NEARBY. FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, NORTHWESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU FROM KOROLEVU TO KOROVOU,YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND OVALAU: EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 220KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 315KM/HR. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR HE REST OF VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, KORO, NAIRAI, GAU AND BATIKI: EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 110KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 155KM/HR. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR THE REST OF FIJI: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 85KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 120KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. The following information is provided especially for the mariners: EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES FROM CENTRE.GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON WILL BE ISSUED AT 10PM TODAY OR EARLIER. http://www.met.gov.fj/ Edit: Looking at satellite footage Winston seems to be moving along the North coast faster than predicted and currently 9.25pm Fiji time (9.25am GMT) the eye looks to be very close to Lautoka and just to the NNE of Nadi.

The eye shows up very clearly in the satellite shots at http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/sat_img.php?area=hp3 (Thanks for that link Nouska) Eye seems to have made landfall in the NE of Viti Levu, close to Rakiraki and Nananu-i-ra island. Bad news for that area, but at least I suppose its good news that the eye didn't hit closer to the far more densely populated city of Suva, 50 miles or so to the south. (I'm sort of asuming that the strongest winds would be wrapped around the eye......is this right?). What is Winston likely to do now? My main worry is that it'll track along the towns and villages on the north coast and exit Viti Levu close to Fiji's 2nd largest city Lautoka. Also bound to cause problems out in the Yasawa island group....just to NW of Viti Levu. Some scary footage on here http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11592782 also more info here; http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/category-5-cyclone-winston-about-make-landfall-viti-levu-fijis-main-island

Where is the best place to get updated satellite shots? ........as there still seems to be scope for it to track north/south or right over the centre of Viti Levu -though can't see any of these options as being good for Fiji

Thanks!....as welcome as a warm glass of Sauvignon blanc

Looking very nasty. http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=342288 Looks to be heading bang over a tiny island called Nananu-i-ra (just off the north coast of Viti Levu). I spent 2 incredible months there many many years ago and didn't want to leave such a spectacularly beautiful island and lovely people. I dread to think about the devastation this could wreak. (not my photo ....my photos of nananu-i-ra are pre digital)

Yes, as you say, one of the more reliable sources.....so worth watching What could possibly go wrong!

Not according to the model thread!! Snow Tuesday morning along the M4 corridor...ish "In the shorter term, 12z EC det shows some snow on wxbell across South Wales, The M4 corridor of southern England including south/West Midlands on the northern flank of precip moving east Tuesday morning" ....and then Snowmagedon some days later according to Ecm. Death by a thousand cuts.....again!! Not sure I can handle the disappointment.......best I find a crate of wine.

My Inference is that I will see snow late tonight. (My grip on reality has slipped further and further this winter) What could possibly go wrong?

Slushy deposits!!.....I can hardly wait, the highlight of my winter!

Thankfully earthquake was off the Auckland Islands, hundreds of miles to the south of Stewart island....middle of nowhere, unless you're a penguin. Still you're probably more likely to have snow there on a summer's Feb day than you are on a winters day in SW England.

You'll need more than that!! ....with all the snow-starved from Netweather heading to Crich to stay with you.

Too often the rain snow boundary seems to follow the M4 corridor.

result !!! I'd think about lagging your pipes.

Great news for all the snow starved........ "This could also make way for one of the snowiest and coldest February periods that we have experienced in quite some time" "The colder and wintry theme will also continue and begin to take more of a stronghold into the second week of February - as the UK and Ireland become locked in an icy and wintry grip". “This will just be the start of our very own snow emergency, and we can expect a number of widespread and potentially dangerous snow events from the north to the south of the country" http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/640660/UK-weather-February-forecast-snow-arctic-gales-temperatures-plunge-alert I've always liked Nathan......and have the upmost faith in his weather articles

Palpable excitement here in northern Hampshire!!! My drive to work will be more eratic than usual with my face pressed against the windscreen looking for the tell-tale splodge of icy rain.

I'm guessing that you'll be battening down rather than heading to the beach Cookie ?

Likewise here....already temp of -1c and dewpoint -3c. Expect you'll be getting a fair bit lower than that in Benson Frosty hollows.

Hi Jethro, Marked model swings to be expected. Scandinavian blocking...possibly!!! Are we to expect photos (of a suitably modest nature) of your naked fling around Knockers woodshed to be posted?

Do BBC weather forecasters just not have any enthusiasm for the weather? Forecasts seem light on detail and ultra conservative so as not to offend or worry anyone. We need more of this......

From Traffic Scotland; Start Time:05 Jan 2016 - 04:34Location:A939 Cock BridgeType:Snow Gate ClosureRoute Name:A939Direction:NorthboundDescription:A939 is closed at the snow gate at Bridge of Lecht due to adverse weather conditions.

Hear that more than a few campers have packed up (soggy) tents and headed home. The metservice forecast says that the Coromandel can expect another 80mm up until 11am Sunday. http://www.metservice.com/tv/ Hopefully thereafter the sun will emerge......and at least its a lot warmer than Vancouver will be.

Wow!! ...looking like 2016 could start very wet. Looking further north towards "home"- Whangarei...they're currently forecast almost 200mm of rain over those 2 days.

Very envious WillinGlossop. Precious little blue sky back here in England.....and miss the Pohutakawa's at this time of year (they were just starting to flower when I was over at the beginning of Dec) Looks like you've got some rain to contend with on Wednesday and Saturday, but at least the sun will come out again. Touch and go here whether the sun will even bother making an appearance for the whole of January!!..... so make the most of everything that a NZ summer has to offer.

Darfield, Canterbury 27c at 8am!