Ben Sainsbury

I know we have more general thunderstorms now, but as CAPE builds I think the strongest thunderstorms will be in the areas which you have just mentioned.

And just to note those in the region where severe storms are possible, make sure to get plenty of photos!

Not only that but GFS gives us another potential thunderstorm event on Thursday too.

I have a funny instinct that we could see some active thunderstorms very early tomorrow morning. These charts here just shout activity for me for us Southerners. http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,gfs_,_eur21.png,cape,mucape,icape,layer,lfc,mulfc,el,icon10,omega,pvort,pvort2,difadv,kili,spout,lapse,lapse2,the700,thetae,mixr,mtv,gusts,stp,srh,srhl,pw,hail

Out of all the charts I have see the GFS is currently most on point with precipitation charts. Euro4 has no precipitation anywhere near the South of Ireland. Netwx charts have no precipitation of note. GFS Ensembles some still suggesting rain to Southern Areas of UK, more North. GFS on track but has precipitation intensity wrong but judgment of area right.

Euro4 predicting the same, maybe a little further north.

Sorry I should have been more clear, I meant "plenty" as in what could have happened, apologies.

What do you mean was anything ever forecast? Plenty was forecast it was just a case of whether we would overcome the cap.

How do you know this? Where? All I know is a convergence zone is setting up over the M4/SE Wales.

July 19th (not sure what year) GFS forecasted in excess of 3500 J/kg with -12 Lifted Index, so with this sheer amount of energy available any storms that do develop could be pretty severe.

As a matter of fact the Netwx SR charts are in line with current Sat24 observations. With a shower forming in SE Wales/Glos where current AC is building.

Some much larger cumulus developing now!

Some decent sized cumulus around, positive sign right now and hope the cap can be broken later!

Most of it probably being evaporated. "Dry Thunderstorm"

The storm nr Sleaford seems to have developed a nice anvil according to radar and sat24.

Really not the case though to be honest, I mean Lincolnshire and that have had their fair share the past few years, but there have been plenty of times where other areas like Bristol, (we've had 2/3 storms already) and France imports this year have come quite regularly already so!

Turns out looks like a small shower moved along the south coast an hour ago. Maybe look like an anaprop but looks real. Let's hope we can see more initiation as the cold front moves southwards.

Again for Southern areas, it's looking very promising again! Especially for home grown surface based storms. Some impressive cape values too at this range but obviously taken with a pinch of salt. ATM: Sunday - Eastern Areas Monday - CS England Tuesday - SW England + S Wales though likely to change!

From experience it seems really uncommon to see up to 80kts of DLS. For this to be passing over southern areas means we could see some photogenic showers later? Could be interesting!

There we have our first strike! (of hopefully many) We should see more showers continue to develop as instability spreads eastwards.

My area of "Hope" lol.

Still have a gut feeling that someone else is going to kick off... I never expected activity to kick off this early anyway for areas near myself.

I know some are getting dishearted, but the main time of interest for me to the 1am onwards period. This is where CAPE amounts and various other parameters reach their peak for us. I'd expect to see some further developments within the next hour or two. People talking about the outflow, reducing the chance of storms, but as we see the MCS move further ENE/NE, and showers further west move NNE, the distance between the two masses of storms increases so I think we could potentially see the situation improve for those in CS England. Just my opinion, not trying to deliberately get hopes up.

What I've gathered is naturally that if a storm splits then the eastern side will come off strongest. From experience it's beginning to look like the MCS is losing a little intensity indicated by the strongest amount of sferics on the Eastern side. The storms forming to the west are from what I've read are as a result of the outflow of the storm. This could bring opportunities to More Eastern SW/CS areas.

Lightning now visible on this webcam: http://www.st-malo.com/webcam/