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Snowman.

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Everything posted by Snowman.

  1. Snowman.
    Looking a little bit more interesting by 120.
  2. Snowman.
    Such a nasty feature. Would hate to be a fish in that.
  3. Snowman.
    Anyone got the UKMO 168?
  4. Snowman.
    You know 168 is pretty far away and the ECM chart you could work with to get more of a slidery tone too it. Actual not the worst.
  5. Snowman.
    Don't think I've ever seen a high that strong before. Also is that a hurricane heading straight for portugal??
  6. Snowman.
    925.6 mb
  7. Snowman.
    I would argue none of those heights are useful enough to be of any benefit to us here. But they should keep it somewhat dry.
  8. Snowman.
    Agreed. It needs to move pushed south more but I do believe it’s there to stay.
  9. Snowman.
    Azores high is supplying the height rises north.
  10. Snowman.
    Very close!! A nudge south and the whole country can be involved. Excellent UKMO
  11. Snowman.
    Oh it’s there. Again if it wasn’t probably a much better run. But it is here to stay and we’re going to have figure out how to live with it and still offer a chance of some cold.
  12. Snowman.
    Hallmarks of Dec 2012, I believe it a similar shortwave that caused That ECM to vanish before our very eyes. 12z will see if a similar tale is about unfold. Better heights NE and further SW is what we want.
  13. Snowman.
    Circled feature was giving me PTSD. The Norwegian shortwave is an Easterly killer.
  14. Snowman.
    Maybe a little bit flatter on that low and defo more trough disruption. Wouldn’t surprise me if after the first low slides we see heights trying to once again build in the Atlantic north.
  15. Snowman.
    Just like that, Scandi heights dream shattered. Once again proving that unless it is literally at your doorstep and every model supports it, it has the chance to vanish from sight. ECM is okay needs a lite nudge SW of those disrupting troughs to upgrade it in my mind. Still plenty of time for changes.
  16. Snowman.
    18z is cold. Continues the Scandi high dream. No beasterly but certainly something festive for the time of year. Variation of the Scandi high theme that is..
  17. Snowman.
    Realistically the low never does make it under and stalls. While no worries as it’s just a single OP run lula land it does stop the advancement of deeper cold with better convection. The high remains strong with signs of retrogression. All positive signs, and just for fun at that range.
  18. Snowman.
    GFS is variation of the theme. Lining up a better cold spell imho due to not cutting off the cold. Looks good!
  19. Snowman.
    UKMO 168 chart could be quite spicy later. 144 looks like a stunner to me
  20. Snowman.
    So has the ECM, along with various other models. Why don’t we just use everything at our disposal and see if we can get something from that?
  21. Snowman.
    Considering most runs had nothing 36 hours ago. I don’t think it’s worth looking past it, as past experiences tell us that the models blasts it away.
  22. Snowman.
    It’s that Scandi trough just off the coast, pretty much in a normal easterly that would be over us or just off coast, when a slider approaches it becomes the sort of central pivot for it all. We need a weaker Scandi trough to avoid creating these short waves. Or a stronger high to keep them in check or they’ll linger. Means nothing on an 18z pub run, but just something to keep an eye on.
  23. Snowman.
    That early shortwave off the coast of Scandi threw a spanner in the works as it stops the cold advancing past it. So it’s a waiting game for the high pressure to take control of that area to advance the cold west. I would mark it as a ‘shortwave of concern’ Should work out this run, but a similar shortwave ruined 2013 if my memory serves me correctly.
  24. Snowman.
    The atlantic ridge may be the problem here. shift this SW a bit and we're laughing
  25. Snowman.
    Surface high over Scandi, enough to send a shortwave disrutping through the UK.
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