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Everything posted by Snowman.
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If the ridge can hold you are likely to get multiple attempts, every attempt could increase the chance of getting a sustained Greenie block espeically if the low heights begin drain from the pole and towards Europe/Russia. Keeping the euro trough, even if the ridge collapse will always give us chances.
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model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards
Snowman. replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the low sinks quickly might be worth it in the end, but this GFS run isn't having that. -
model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards
Snowman. replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
First post in a while but this would not be ideal. Likely heavy rain for hours in the south with flooding likely. -
Absolutely insane charts for April, chance of some proper cold for many next weekend. While I am awaiting the warmer weather with restricitions being eased the chance of snow will top anything. Great to see to so many of you still in action!
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Crazy output for the end of March. Wouldn't mind seeing a flake during the weekend but either way will feel chilly.
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That UKMO 144 chart has dragged me back from hibernation. If the centre of pressure was over Iceland it would be a boom from me.
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UKMO is interesting just wish it had a little more stronger heights NE. Interesting that the models have found some more oomph in the Atlantic again.
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Beast from the East 2021.Post-mortem.
Snowman. replied to sunnijim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
If you asked to describe an average cold spell, this would be it. Few days of light to moderate snowfall with the last day being the best because of two heavy snow showers which gave an east 5cm. I saw snow for hours here but it just wasn’t that heavy which was a shame but it helped keep the snow cover for longer. Storm Darcy was a let down, she arrived late and the cold took too long to undercut because of it. Still delivered but we had a few more hours of heavy rain than originally meant too. However it proves once again that models are pretty awful with convection. 6/10 -
D10 ECM doesnt make it but its a start. Might have to rely on some Arctic heights which will probably cauase a bit of choas within the outputs. One final chase before we see out this strange winter?
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ECM D10 tease I think here. Final part of the month could be very interesting lines up with BAs wave.
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The Slash, rebuilding heights NE. Again 18th/19th Feb we see the next chance at amplification. Very similar.
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Para wanted to give it a go too. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Both the GFS, Para and ECM want to give it another go with amplification around the 18th.