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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Early days but could there be a pub run special? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So what you're saying is. More runs needed. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s what the ECM lacks/doesn’t do as well as the GFS on this run. Ejecting a trough east just south of the UK is crucial to advancing that cold air. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
6z could be about to make Boxing Day a one to remember for those in the south, very cold air rushing down the uk from the east. Looks fantastic the 6z will say that -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Massive potential for a reload if we can get the initial parts right first. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM is a huge upgrade, one more upgrade like that and everyone is likely to be in the game. Get that low at 144 less round and disrupting more, while being slightly further south and East and we’re in the freezer. Faster it’s clears to our south the quicker the North Easterlies can take ahold. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As I’m out with the lads, I’m on the night shift. Another GEM will do me nicely. Corrections SE will do us nicely. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You little tease Kas, you’re going to need to convince @sheikhyor it’s all for nothing -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A gentleman as always NWS -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A proper NE’ly is the most beneficial to us all, especially if they’re very low mslp as polar lows have a chance to spawn -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Much better pre 144. A step in the right direction mate! -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We can’t let this Greenland high go amiss, we need the ecm to deliver the goods -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEM looks to be best. GFS is just awful. UKMO is better but still like a nudge SE. Need to lower heights South and South East if we are to salvage anything. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO has been dire for the last couple of runs. The UKMO barely has Scotland in play. The trend NW is in full swing and is worrying. Once it starts going one way it rarely ever trends back just wobbles. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yikes the UKMO hasn’t been great recently but that takes the cake. GFS is alright little too far north for my liking. Frustratingly close as we need a shift of about 250 miles south m. Really isn’t much to ask for but it’s all to play for. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Even those that don't fully make it like the OP are primed and just waiting for someone to pull the trigger. A dramatic upgrade. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Best set of ENS hands down. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Defo a sausage in there somewhere.. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mean is so much better btw. Heights much stronger north! More a NE'ly angle than NNE. Ensembles are great step up already. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So much better than the ECM. Get the ruler out for them Easterlies! Perfect low placement with the German/France border. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gearing up for a proper NE'ly blast this. Formation of a channel low ESE of the one already in there!