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Snowman.

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Everything posted by Snowman.

  1. Snowman.
    We're cycling into cold patterns left and right mate, greeni to scandi to wedges. Yes, it's frustrating if we don't get it on the first try but if we continue on this outlook we have plenty of tickets for the raffle. Although, I would like it first try
  2. Snowman.
    BEAUTY!
  3. Snowman.
    I actually believe the heights vanishing NW is what scuppered this run. Stops the forcing on the low which allows it to head NE better. Pointless to analyse it but heyho
  4. Snowman.
    Chefs kiss to that! ECM still thinking it’s Halloween with its 12z output. Very much just meandering it’s way through the run but ofcourse is still is an option on the table. Hopefully it’s not repeated tomorrow morning.
  5. Snowman.
    Ahhh! A southerly , completely different to the GFS!
  6. Snowman.
    GFS not be discarded imho, while some of lows may be a little dramatic the scenario of building a wedge northwards and it disrupting is a real possibility. There’s the obvious snow risk of a spider then there’s the rust of convection on the back end as it clears East allowing cold back in. Just hope that it’s far enough south to keep everyone in the game, doesn’t quite make it here but the GEM is also toying with the idea.
  7. Snowman.
    ICON close to Easterly for 180, if we can get a better bump SE would get busy here.
  8. Snowman.
    Looks like it may even drop down..
  9. Snowman.
    Bit of a gate keeper in terms of getting the deep cold across the sea down but still a nice run. Wonder what the maxes are.
  10. Snowman.
    I called it! All jokes aside encouraging to see the models get a better grip with the NE extent. Happy with the ECM this evening hopefully it improves tomorrow.
  11. Snowman.
    Looks a bit pear to me now but let’s see
  12. Snowman.
    192 could be a peach!
  13. Snowman.
    If we can have that low over Scotland drift south it will open the floodgates to even colder uppers.
  14. Snowman.
    Control is still going Jan 2013 route with the small wedge. Nice looking stuff.
  15. Snowman.
    Then the easterly for day 10 yeah?
  16. Snowman.
    This has happened before I believe? Can’t quite remember but we had a similar situation.
  17. Snowman.
    Such a cold chart for us that. Anything with snow cover down to -10 under clear skies.
  18. Snowman.
    True on trough disruption. Hopefully we gain more as we head closer to the time frame. The one to the East of the UK needs to be further SE. The other one in the Atlantic needs to be further West to avoid throwing up a small ridge before it gets here, also keeps the cold in place.
  19. Snowman.
    Stranger things have happened.. I agree however ICON is very suspicious but after the ECM yesterday there’s definitely potential for a dartboard low like that so we cannot rule it out
  20. Snowman.
    Small ridge over France/Germany needs to do one on icon. Keeping a stagnant low over Central Europe will always keep cold close and chance for some fun winter shenanigans close by. A euro high won’t.
  21. Snowman.
    If I was to take a punt we could fluctuate between the Atlantic mild air approaching and being deflected south. Might be plenty of battleground snow events for December.
  22. Snowman.
    P17 absolute stonker btw. Low comes down NE but the high doesn’t connect to the building Russian high allowing to come down at a SWS angle and travels further south. Just an ensemble member but there’s still potential to get more than a stagnant cold low.
  23. Snowman.
    6z pretty poor it has to be said. We have improved from yesterdays 12z but there still a great risk of it all going pear shaped. Need to keep the cold feed open NE as it will allow further chances as the lows clear south, so even if you don’t get a perfect strike first time your options are open for further incursions.
  24. Snowman.
    Control run is one of the best runs I’ve seen In some time. Reminds me of “That 6z GFS run” we had a few years back. 2017 perhaps? Either way, that’s a 11/10 run, you don’t get better than repeating NElies and would start to challenge some of the other big winters out there. Probably won’t be there tomorrow tho!
  25. Snowman.
    Infinitely better 18z runs. Very encouraging to see hopefully the 0z can deliver. Another shift like that and we’re all getting a ticket for the snow raffle.
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