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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hard to be tempted by the 18z, such wild changes early on it’s a bit ridiculous, especially when it swings in our favour it’s very hard to take seriously! Outlier or trend setter? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z going for it. Don’t think it will be long before the next chase is underway. Definitely see polar heights causing chaos in FI. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It may be incorrect early but I have more belief in what happens after the beginning of next week than this Saturday! Cant shake the feeling that Scandi heights are inbound. A lingering Jet with low pressure to our South East 18z and 12z ECM both looked decent to give it a good attempt of building a substantial block. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It appears we’re off to Scandi from D12 on the GFS. ECM also smelling the same coffee? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Would like a similar feature of sending a shortwave through the Azores, obviously because it creates a snow event but more to keep it out our business. Unless it can build far enough north then its the last thing I want to see rearing its ugly mug towards us! -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Azores ridge ruins it. We do need a steady stream of lows to keep us cold. The lack of eastward progression and trough disruption on the UKMO isn't great. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not a fan of the UKMO, would prefer more oompf East to get the cold to properly head south. 144 has a ridge thrown up over us too would need to see 168 to see if the next low slides. Not impressed but the GFS is really good. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Something is afoot in the ensembles. A cold Xmas day is pretty much gone BUT there growing support to extend the cold by keeping pressure low to our south/se. 12z 18z That a mean NE'ly flow there? Pretty cold. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If you can keep a train of lows running through the channel into europe we will remain cold. Proper channel low incoming. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Old data, BBC broadcast uses old date. And in this situation the past 12 hours things have really changed. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM still too far north for my liking especially as it phases into the Scandi trough. Want that thing going into Belgium and a little flatter. An improvement from this mornings run although still not great, a sobering reminder that this ordeal still isn’t done. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fantastic set of runs so far. Really good to see this place buzzing again. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS flips, UKMO booms and ECM is a halfway house. Leaving us even more confused Calling it now -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nothing like a costa and discussing Norwegian shortwaves for an hour -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Problem is if it heads sufficiently south it’s more than just Christmas Day where snow can occur. Lot riding on it. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nail bitting stuff this, I almost want to return to the Norwegian shortwave drama. Don’t see the 12z really helping at this point. However I would like to be wrong so I can move on with my life. Isn’t there a 6z ECM run too but only goes out till day 4 or so? Might be worth a ganders. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hard to have faith in any output after that. Drastic changes across the arctic. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Reckon there's still more give in that low especially from the GFS. Slightly flatter and more sharp as it enters would change the landscape drastically. But hope for something ON Xmas for many is fading. But after is still up for grabs IMHO. Just need to keep a wedge of heights to keep lows south and we are in for some winnings. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's the best set of Ensembles since 2018. Still waaayyy too far away to get hopeful, but things have been positive today. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Convection or disturbances are likely to be working in your favour here. If it trends further south then you'll end up with a better NE'ly. All good here. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Snowman. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Early days but could there be a pub run special?