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Snowman.

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Everything posted by Snowman.

  1. Snowman.
    The low in the North Sea is a little too far north for my comfort. You want that phasing West over northern France/southern UK imho. Might be workable however
  2. Snowman.
    That Norwegian low giving me a bit of PTSD. Hopefully it plays ball and phases south of the UK and not through it.
  3. Snowman.
    The Previous GEFS had a much stronger height anomaly persisting north. Was never really far enough north to do anything left us in no man's land.
  4. Snowman.
    Indeed incredibly frustrating. One time we need a shortwave ejecting somewhere and we don't get it!
  5. Snowman.
    Lots it way here a little. But a much improved ECM after the past 2.
  6. Snowman.
    No no. A mixuture of Greenalnd. Iceland and Scandivania. A Gricelandnavian high if you will
  7. Snowman.
    Yesterdays. Miles better. Need a trigger low to start the process.
  8. Snowman.
    It's on the brink this one, Could be a great ECM however could go horribly wrong. That shortwave East of Greenland needs to behave.
  9. Snowman.
    144. vs Yesterdays
  10. Snowman.
    Euro view is a little better, clear shunt to build heights NE now rather than NW. Should lead to a better wrap around of cold from the East, IF it gets another traction north. It's bloody close to the GEM tho!
  11. Snowman.
    Heights are getting shallower which could be a good thing as it allows better potential for snowier scenes. I'm thinking more Jan 2013 than Feb 2018 here.
  12. Snowman.
    Considering this is a GFS FI chart if we apply the idea that the GFS overblows lows and doesn't like disrupting them we're in snow easterly terroritory 2 days later.
  13. Snowman.
    Boxing day past 4 days of the GFS runs. Newest first. Pretty outrageous statement if you ask me. ECM is just getting into this range.
  14. Snowman.
    18z GEFS is definitely the most impressive set this year. Nice to see.
  15. Snowman.
    18z is traumatizing as it shuffles between wanting to go NE or NW. LEaving us in no mans land. However nothing like the 12z ECM.
  16. Snowman.
    We have lift off. 12z for reference `
  17. Snowman.
    Marginal improvements earlier on can lead to much greater things. Much better ridging.
  18. Snowman.
    Better 18z, however marginal.
  19. Snowman.
    I believe it was the famous GPs rocket that never quite landed.. Either way plenty of chances for things to go right, plenty of chances for it to go wrong. We should be glad we're actually experiencing this modelling period rather than PV grinding down against a Euro slug.
  20. Snowman.
    Interesting to wake up to a good set of 0z runs, they usually always spur the mood at the start of the day. Great to see the ECM looking much better than the tosh it threw out last night, GFS still being a little too progressive for my liking however at such range either one of them could be correct. Good start to the day.
  21. Snowman.
    Cracking ensembles btw.
  22. Snowman.
    Borderline perfect high placement, maybe a nudge north
  23. Snowman.
    Pretty special this..
  24. Snowman.
    What's very important here is the fact that some residual energy is canada still. Stops a west based -NAO developing.
  25. Snowman.
    Hard to trust future outputs as we’ve seen today the heights NE are causing havoc with the lows grinding up against them and forcing them SE. Pretty large difference over the last day or so. If you apply a little of the same logic of the above to those D7 chats and such things suddenly look much more exciting. Obviously nothing concrete yet but it wouldn’t take much for the ECM to bring a decent cold snap
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