Snowman.

Excellent chart to highlight the shift. Are these freely available?

The shift northwards, we had a cleaner NE'ly 2 days ago. vs

Unfortunately the GFS archives dont work on meteo that far out. But there was hype but the wheels fell of quickly and further out. Last Dec was a similar case. Very dramatic and down to the wire, all we can do is wait and see but the trend is not our friend right now.

A greenland doesnt = cold and snow. Just because the Macro pattern is extremely positive. The UK is a very small target in terms of getting a direct cold hit. And due to the warmer warms and being earlier in the season we often need a perfect pattern to nail UK cold and snow. Where the Micro pattern comes in. A trough being the wrong angle or being a 100 -250 miles too far North/South etc can make a large differences. I want to highlight this with a chart from Feb 2013. Incredible convective Easterly just out of reach for much of us in the UK, what could have been a great cold spell but lost to 300 miles SE. It was still cold, but nothing crazy. Comparisons to 2010 and such just heighten expectations which leads to great disappointment. 2010 was astouniching in terms dam, cold, pressure MSLP etc. I want cold and snow, but I can only discuss what I see in front of me, which is cold yes, wintery nirvana ehh I am yet to be convinced.

The intial low dropping south through NE Europe is different to frontal snow coming from the SW

This is much more extreme however with lower MSLP, also much colder too. It will be a "wait and see" affair. But I would argue that there is a huge risk of things being too far north for those in the south, which is why I am trying to urge caution.

After the stagnant low for few days 9th Dec is an Ice day for much of us. Still little snow, but very cold.

No snowflakes for your location, at least not yet.

More in relation to the mood rather than the actual models.

Hmm looking too far North for me on the 12z GFS. Beginning the 12z with a flatter mood this evening.

Would like to see a better alignment for the cold to give us dirty southerners a better chance. Realistically, you need more of an ENE flow coming out of Norway and Scandi. Less moderation on the cold. Cleaner flow with less disturbances would better from the initial blast as well. Get the cold in and all that.

Following snow charts is ludicrous at this range, I understand the idea of taking a run at face value but we have seen time and time again random shortwaves and convection being picked at D3. But I will concede, place the centre of that low SE 100 - 150 miles and it’s golden.

Excellent ECM but if you want perfection then a correction south of about 100 miles or so would make it so. Looking increasingly likely we’re to experience a decent period of cold weather.

Last Christmas had changes within 60hrs or so. When you see it outside your window, thats when you know its reliable.

ECM needs to keep the heights over Greenland boxed in better, compared to yesterdays runs they’re much stronger and extended further into the pole thus shifting the patter NW. Will be hard to predict but overall the signal is still there.

GFS makes a dogs breakfast of it all, can’t seem to keep the GH boxed in well enough which means it fails to drive the troughing from Scandi into us. Early improvements, but would really like to see a boom run from the GFS today to settle some nerves.

I was talking earlier on, about 144. Estbablishing the trough into Europe is key to UK cold, without its a cool cloudy easterly.

The GFS is sending positive heights very far north into the pole with the ECM being more conservative. The conservative option is actually a blessing for us as it creates a strong Icelantic high, which allows for for a better alignment in regards to the trough, for once we want this option as it allows a deeper convection of cold air through Europe.

The finger of blues move down our East over Scandi and such look stronger, thus more encouraging for some proper cold.

Aha yes back for the madness once again this year and what better way to start it with a fabled Easterly chase!

Well

The OP is about to deliver the a stonking Easterly.

I think the bigger problem is the heights across central and southern Europe. Making it difficult to get the cold in or painfully slow. I would still be optimistic as we have a bountiful amount of blocking to our north and continued disruption to the PV in December is always a good thing.

Couple of showers developing off the coast of France aimed more to the SE, may well be the only chance we see atm.

Personally I meant more frontal systems rather than a mean for a certain amount of days. Or just frontal weather in general being forecasted then not making it at all as we get closer to the time. Basically my original statement was incorrect. Apologies.