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Snowman.

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Everything posted by Snowman.

  1. Snowman.
    To improve the UKMO we need more a negative tilt on the 2nd low to attempt to sustain a ridge just west of us.
  2. Snowman.
    UKMO is excellent, slight relent of cold in the south but if the trough North clears east with the 2nd staying south. Could be great!
  3. Snowman.
    And it shows with the hours of rain we've had here.. Moving away from my back garden, its been cold and with nwp of D10 still showing a very distrubed vortex I would be more surprised if we didn't get another chance at a period of cold.
  4. Snowman.
    Dp at 1.1. 0.5 rise in an hour
  5. Snowman.
    DP is 0.4. Gone up .1 degree. As you say, these events are washout here most of the time but we benefit heavily from convections on Easterlies where as many miss out. Can't have it all.
  6. Snowman.
    Just came from Hockley to Southend Hockley already a CM or 2 As you come out of Hawkwell it’s all slush and sleet.
  7. Snowman.
    North of Chelmsford moderate snow settling on main roads.
  8. Snowman.
    Completing my trip from York back to Southend. Just on the A120, ready to hit the fun zone.
  9. Snowman.
    Heavier precip should go turn to snow for you.
  10. Snowman.
    Hopefully we’ll be alright. But even going from central Southend out to Leigh could make the difference. Shoebury looking like a loss here. The 127 could be a good cut off point, north of that should be okay. Hadleigh/Benfleet where it’s likely to be snow too. Leigh/Westcliff looking a little too close for comfort.
  11. Snowman.
    Models aren’t great at convection. I was feeling confident yesterday morning after the previous failings from the models in the SW and NW. My biggest fear is the DPs rising, as the wind swings round.
  12. Snowman.
    With what’s going on in the SW at the moment, feeling strangely confident that something may occur Sunday/Monday. Models underplaying the precip somewhat.
  13. Snowman.
    Left side ICON-EU 7Km
  14. Snowman.
    EDIT: Wrong chart, updated. GFS different over states. Hard to trust output beyond D5
  15. Snowman.
    Glad to hear you’re benefiting from our cold spell as well Nick. That Sunday feature is extremely interesting with some models going a bit wild with the precip others not so much. Way too many factors going for it that I’m going to pretend it doesn’t exist so I can sleep better Saturday.
  16. Snowman.
    I’m late to the party, but that ECM was beautiful. But it raises a fine question. Is it still a D10 chase if you’re already in a cold spell?
  17. Snowman.
    Believe 0z had nothing. So the signal is increasing just very hard to pin down. Probably going to be a radar watcher.
  18. Snowman.
    Just interesting to see the GFS not to have the hash affect on the precip, I’d imagine that even over London heavy precip would be more of the snowy type. Just an observation really.
  19. Snowman.
    Lot of marginality about there.
  20. Snowman.
    Icelandic shortwave/trough very apparent on the 12z, lower heights in the North Atlantic
  21. Snowman.
    Don’t understand how it’s touch and go for the south considering the front isn’t even out of France?
  22. Snowman.
    You would thing that there would be a little more convection on that ICON but he ho. It’s so far and models struggle with these things.
  23. Snowman.
    Some absolute filth in the GEFS. Some them need a 18+ rating. It's likely all to be different tomorrow, but its been a good day in regards to keeping cold for a much longer period of time.
  24. Snowman.
    Very possible past 192 that the low heads ENE. March 2013?
  25. Snowman.
    Very cold
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