Snowman.

Actually an upgrade!

Norwegian low is a smidge further S and E slightly weaker. Still nothing like the GFS.

Everyone will benefit under a proper cold flow. Frontal snow in the south and convection further north. Keeps everyone in the game.

Snowline moves north tho. Likely to be snow to rain event maybe even back to snow as it pulls away. Alas it just merely one run. WIll be different tomorrow but I am not buying into a smooth sailing ride for us. This WILL be bumpy. BTW I may come across as having an outburst, but these things can catastropically wrong in a short time, GEFS are 50/50 on cold and snow and relying on model programming to be 'underestimating' blocks or over doing troughs doesn't sit right in the stomach. As such my feet are grounded in that there's great potential for a real festive treat for EVERYONE not just the north/midlands/south etc. Convection will kick in further north and after November 2010 we all know what that can bring.

When there's a lot better options on the table yes horrendous. That Norwegian shortwave will be the death of me at this point. I needs to be a little further SE then I can rest. I don't mind missing snow and what not on the first try if it can be repayed with a good, cold, NE'ly after.

I am seeing perfectly fine. A positively tilted trough heading ENE. Sure could drag down colder air behind but delay of cold means that the chance for more things to go wrong increases. It's a solution, but half the GEFS ensembles have a similar tale and they don't end up too pretty. 0z could easily have things trend west further then suddenly we're all out of coldspell. I want to be wrong truly, but when presented with a chance like this you want things to go right the first time.

As suspected horrendous. Opportunities later, but you miss Christmas. For the sake of my stress levels I really wish it wasn’t happening during Christmas!!

Uppers won’t change unless the systems do. High risk high reward scenario. Many have the right to be anxious.

You want a GFS and ECM blend at 168. GFS with the better heights speeding SE for a better chance of adverting cold and the ECM with a better Atlantic profile. Either nothing catastrophic. But caution is advised and this is an all white and snowy picture or very cold rain as someone north of you gets buried.

Think the booms are a little premature here… still could go very wrong very quickly and those closer to the SE it’s getting little tense. Could be cold rain instead of snow for Christmas.

Our shortwave friend/foe is deeper on the ECM meaning it should track south faster

I would put it down to the Norwegian low being too far West. It phases before fully clearing south causing a potentially horrid set of weather events. Its far too knife edge for my liking, give me a classic BFTE with convection over the channel low stuff. Despite the later being capable of extreme totals.

Too far north. We want the point of contact to be in the channel/northern France so everything north of that low pressure is easterly.

True but the UKMO has slayed more cold spells than any other model. It’s the one model I need onboard before I’m onboard

The more I look the more I dislike the UKMO. That nose of high pressure coming out of Belgium and France worries me greatly.

Too far for it to matter, realistically the GFS has just struggled at trough disruption at 120 so at 200+ Hours away it has even less of a chance. Would likely slide and you end with a channel low on Christmas Day.

GFS is near perfect, I think it’s about to 1up the ECM 0z!! Beautiful angle from the Greenland high. Could not have drawn better lines myself.

The shortwave is a little too far west for my liking a little smidge SE not much but a little smidge would make it better. Hard to call. Really don’t want that phasing over the UK otherwise Iceland ends up with a North Easterly and we’re left relishing in a SW’ly. GFS looking better tho.

GFS doesn’t look like the UKMO for Eastern Europe in regards to the high/trough placement, which means it’s largely alone on that front. Hopefully the UKMO is much better for 12z

It has high pressure slap bang over the med extending northwards. Will take some serious forcing for UK majority to get something cold from that. 192 would be the SE under a SWly with only the the far north getting anything close to an easterly. Poor run That ‘bump’ of high pressure that extends out into Russia is a killer.

Pretty ghastly, high pressure over most of Central Europe not what we want!

Problem is friend is that half this forum including myself live in the sauff. Getting cold and snow here is pulling hens teeth.

That shortwave has been anxiety inducing for the past 3 days. UKMO worries me greatly.

If it lingers for too long it becomes the phasing point with the Atlantic as the jet rides through it. Makes it this run and I understand that it necessary for us to get our cold but it’s nerve wracking to watch unfold.

Not liking that shortwave still if it lingers too long it phase across us leaving the south with Azores high ridging in. Need it south ASAP