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Skeggy Winter Storm

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Posts posted by Skeggy Winter Storm

    Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well been away for a few days now. And have returned to see nothing really has changed. Apart from a few fleeting glimpses of polar maritime air that will be very short lived. Then we are back to wet and windy weather. Think this winter we could be looking at a early 90s winter with wet windy weather been the dominant feature. But at least it means a certain person will look very stupid. Sorry mods couldn't resist!!!

    One thing tho its only december 15 just about 3 months in front of us to go this time last year models were awfull and it turned out ok if it was mid february then yes id agree but now nope
    • Like 8

    Severe Storm System & Arctic Blast Thursday 5th Onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Skeggy Blizzard

    a rather selfish and parochial view. Perhaps she should visit some of those driven from their homes or see the clean up required in many villages and towns down the east coast?By all accounts the storm surge, that which caused the damage in the east, was close if not higher than the 1953 storm. More damage was averted by the increase in storm defences and much better communications and very probably by a better forecast leaving enough time for the emergency services to get folk out where they were at high risk.

    yes was very bad along east coast we was lucky here in skegness the sea gates saved 10,000 homes here enviroment agency said in our local paper i did go to see it put we was pushed back by police at one point it was worrying as the sea was putting a lot of pressure on gates

    Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The system for 1 week time that has been showing at various times on the ECM and GFS is a bit misleading as the low shoots off towards northern scotland, the assumption is that the worst winds would be up north.The detail though shows that even the SE and god forbid London would be in trouble with min 75kts at 925mb level i.e gusts of 100mph.

    That dont look good after what happened here on 5th

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    just got in and looked at the models and wish i hadn't bothered, another copy and paste day

    i hav'nt looked at any models i just check how many pages have gone by (2 or so ) on mod thread since friday to see how things are doing same old same old very boring weather indeed things can change very quickly tho all it takes for one of the models to spot something

    Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    If this does turn out to be a mild Winter then so be it, it's not the end of the world. The UK is quite a way North but that doesn't always guarantee cold and snow - we're still one of the top 3 or 4 mildest countries in Europe in Winter - this reverses in the Summer and we're one of the coolest, being far North can help cold in Winter but because of the big body of water to our west our predominant weather year round no matter where you live in this island is mild. Nothing will drastically change that as long as we are positioned on the fringe of Europe.

     

    Anyway the 12z Manchester ens look uninspiring for cold/snow prospects in the lead up to Christmas but the chance of more meaningful rain mid month onwards.

     

    Posted Image

    I agree Gaz it doesnt look good at the moment but who knows what the charts will look like in 2/3 weeks time its like deal or no deal with 4 reds and 4 blues it can go either way it could even be a winter of two halfs which would please most
    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Pretty uninspiring charts on offer for coldies right now. If only these charts would show up in summer, would be BBQ heaven! Have to laugh at some of the posts on the mod thread 'writing off' the rest of this month or even most of the winter. Seriously? We have just entered winter. Anything can happen.

    Yes its always the same in winter we get great charts for summer and vise versa im not bothered at min like you said weve just entered winter
    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well that is true, last Christmas was green for most of the country? at least it was here, then by January things changed and became rather snowy so a straw to clutch for coldies.  But also during the middle of December 2011 I woke up to a covering of snow one day in what was otherwise a mild month and a very mild Christmas, snow is not looking likely even this time around. Just shows how poor the models are looking at the moment for any cold/snow in the next couple of weeks. Even as a mildie I have enough sense to know the high pressure won't stick around forever.

    Yes i remember last winter all the 'winters over' post look how it turned out in the end
    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ECM what you like? Started off a tad better and held a little interest in the middle, but my my what a shocking ending from 192 onwards. Raging vortex plotted over southern Greenland, with high pressure rooted to the south of the UK, with a gentle, mild waft of air from our south west.Only postive I can take from this evening is that there did appear to be a slight improvement early to mid range, maybe that trend will continue, breach a tipping point and hey we have the gem take on things.

    yes true but when theres cold showing in FI we r always told its FI its not gna happen
    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The way I see it, if it's destined to turn mild, better for it to be in the run up to christmas and give the next cold spell time to hopefully evolve and arrive for the festive period, short term pain..long term gain, the models are glorified number crunchers but sometimes I get the feeling that some people think the models control the weather, nah it's other way round..

    Yes Frosty mate i agree with you 100% im no expert but i beleive the models only predict the weather with the data they have at the specific times 0z,12z etc things can change so quickly
    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    well well well did someone say were into the realiable timeframe for this cold spell???its also worth noting that ian brown did say this was a very possible outcome looks like hes on the money return to much milder air after next weekend at this rate maybe before the weekend has even started as for nice start to winter im not so sure it is to be honest its been a horror story for nearly a month now. vortex vortex vortex its running the show this winter.and the models really cant cope with the strength and depth of this vortex another near miss for some but others have something wintry to look forward to I don't think I can spend winter with all these downgrades as ian f said they didn't use the ecm to be honest the ukmo is the best and the others are just absolutely rubbish. absolutely bang on ian brown.

    As far as i know winters just started theres a long way to go yet all aboard the model rollercoaster
    • Like 5

    Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Really, I'd have thought Easterlies wouldnt be bad up Skeg! A Northeasterly is good for me with the Wash coming into play to set up a streamer. I have known Skeggy to get loads of continuous snow on a Northerly, then 20 miles inland not a flake at all !! I remember someone saying Skeg is a whiteout, and I was like eh??!!

    Yes Notherlys are good for snow here esp nov 2010 but i think that was northeasterly we had fair bit snow end of nov that year
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