Dexter29
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Posts posted by Dexter29
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Well UKMO & GFS not so good for us at present, ECM still to come, but best just to view these as just a single run subject to change, margins are so fine now that I don't see this being decided until Sunday. Mod thread just great and can just see the GEM will become the saviour in there, bet you see the post 'GEM is great and performed so well in January, GFS,UKMO and ECM are rubbish' before the evening is out.
Unfortunately patience and more run still needed for us
In what way are they not good for us?
The UKMO at 96hrs shows heavy snow after the rain moving down from the north. GFS has a possible rain to snow event.
Both charts show heavy snow showers for Tuesday.
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Louise Lear just now on BBC news channel:
"Quite dramatic weather for Sunday" yes her words!
"Heavy snow sweeping across us (our region) Sunday night and Monday"
She did express uncertainties on how far North the ppn will go and how long it rains for at first!
Changes will happen.
It could be that the north of the UK actually miss out on any heavier snow if we have more corrections west and south. The irony in that ay....
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MOD thread an absolute joke once again.
Upgrade vs Downgrade
Snow vs Rain
Significant Snow vs Torrential rain
Contradicting posts galore, it's funny because you can just easily spot the wind up merchants (not naming names)
Even if it were showing a 2ft blizzard some will still argue it will rain!
Like I said yesterday, their 'weather hobby' has now turned into an obsession for ' attention seeking' as their new hobby!
Should of listened to John P and stayed away from there for the sake of your own sanity!
I'm just going to stick with this thread and TV forecasts for Sundays potential event!
If it doesn't snow at least I wouldn't of had to put myself through the cringeable attention seeking members for absolutely nothing!!
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lol post mondays mornings ppn chart i dare you....your cluthing at straws gav !!
Happens on every potential snow event!
Wind up merchants doing there best to nic pic.
The 12z is not a downgrade and if anything increases snow chances From late Sunday afternoon.
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12z has heavy snow for us Sunday night into Monday.
Are we heading for a 'Snow day' Monday? Maybe!
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Meanwhile, in New England later ...
That's nothing.
Moscow has had record snowfall amounts so far this winter!
85 inches so far
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Still the sam thoughts as last night rain sunday. Turning to snow as the wind direction and cold air sets in monday am
Fax still looks the same this morning. Post charts tonight.
Also the mod thread will be area based hence the confusion in the posts on there at present
John would u agree that the UKMO handles Low pressure systems within 120hrs better than GFS and ECM.
I find the GFS and ECM more so, tend to over estimate and prog it as deeper. Also it has a more northerly bias until +24, therefore I'm thinking the mostly likely outcome is from the UKMO this morning!
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Morning guys, I have just finished browsing the MOD thread over the last 4 pages.
On one page " heavy persistent snow in SE later Sunday"
Next page "currently the SE looks the worst place in the country for snow"
Someone pass me a neurophen
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And then you think, hang on, it's the weather!! I agree so much..
and then you try and make a comment in there or ask a question and it's a bit like waving a white handkerchief to an express train..
As you say, the more balanced members go to the effort of explaining things but some get caught up in an argument which then inevitably goes off on one for soooooo many pages (a real joy to read) and then inevitably forgotten the next day and then to raise it's head the following day. Groundhog day. I've been on here years and the gfs/ukmo etc argument is epic.
I wish the technical thread appealed more to those with extraterestrial language but I guess it doesn't get the viewers so the MOD thread gets all the rant and gobbledegook.
Seems weird that with all the folk here with so much knowledge, that there are only a few who want to share it. Makes learning a loooong learning curve.
and for therepy I just watch this: http://www.meteo.psu...M/animweur.html
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A couple days ago I posted in the MOD thread asking questions and I confirmed I was learning.
Big mistake:
One particular member literally said " that these kind of posts annoy them and that I was looking for brownie points because I was learning, they also tried to direct me to some other thread for learning so I wouldn't post anymore in the MOD thread.
Outrageous, couldn't believe the reply, needless to say the mods deleted the awful post thank god.
Apart from the regular sane knowledgable members on there, the thread is an absolute joke.
I think members are now confusing their hobby "weather" with an obsession for finding arguments and doing their best to nic pic - that has therefore become their new hobby!
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Looking at charts(GFS and ECM) i feel we will just not quite be cold enough for snow in SE this Sunday/Monday.We need the slider to move a little further West i think which will allow colder continental air to filter over us from the East.It is however very marginal and at 5 days out things can and no doubt change.Today the 850s for SE were -6 but we still had rain/sleet this afternoon in this part of NW Kent.Think we will need uppers of at least -8 to get decent chance of snow Sun/Mon.
This winter is turning out to be a case of close but no cigar in terms of cold and snow for this part of the world.Things can still change though and with a month of winter left maybe things will go in our favour and winter goes out like a lion!!
I do not agree.
I have had 2 very good snowfalls this winter so far and on one of those snowfalls it snowed for 13hrs continually!
Some good frosts and dry cold days.
So as for your statement " close but no cigar " this is not true!!
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For the guys that know how to read charts better than me:
I am taking the other half to Luton Airport at 5am Sunday morning. Can I expect any Snow that would cause travel disruption or a flight delay?
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Snow just starting here
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Have to laugh a Daybreak news this morning.
They have a reporter based in Glossop Derbyshire reporting on the snow.
Talk about OTT, there's barely a dusting on the floor and the reporter is acting as if she is in a 6ft drift.
Scandinavian country's would laugh at our news headlines regarding snow this morning!
As far as I'm concerned no snow that has fallen overnight and yesterday is Newsworthy yet. Apart from higher areas maybe.. What's new!
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Morning, just as I thought radar looks clear this morning for our region therefore no morning rush hour snow.
Not sure where Yamkin was obtaining this info anyway, as per TV forecasts this morning was always dry and sunny.
Maybe a passing flurry early afternoon if we are lucky
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Just picked the other half up from the station.
A balmy 6.5c according to car thermometer.
Doesn't feel that cold out there either.
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Thanks Gibby
Good summary which gives some perspective against some of the ramping going on in here.
I was just thinking the same, Gibby's Summary going for a rather Benign anticyclonic period after The weekend and a general dry theme. (Not snowy)
Bit different from some of the other posts in here.
For a learner it makes it very confusing!
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I dont think its about knowledge or other factors. We are all learning & did not mean to come across rude.
However i think some comments regarding a watered down ecm is down to how they solely view the output.
If you view wetter then you may feel its watered down.
If you view meteociel then you will see what i am talking about i myself will try and post a few charts showing the differences between both a bit later.
L-S
Thanks for the info.
Will definitely switch to viewing on meteociel.
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BBC London:
Wintry showers overnight clearing by 5am
Tomorrow morning from 6am -clear, bright, cold and dry.
By 1pm tomorrow afternoon. A few sleet/snow showers passing through! Maybe a covering over the chilterns.
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Well back up your fact with the charts to prove then that's all i am saying because i disagree..
At the end of the day i think it bottles down to those who view the models on wetter & those who view on meteociel.
I'm on my iPhone so i can't posts charts and I wouldn't even know how to obtain the ECM charts from two days ago anyway.
I view the ECM on wetter.
Listen I'm sure you have a lot more knowledge than me, I'm learning!
All I was saying was the ECM to my eyes looked better on Saturdays runs from memory and the upbeat posts reflected this.
The ECM12z still sticking to its guns which is awesome.
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Great ECM 12z, a snowy weekend?
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Heavy snow for many!!
Take that GFS....
Nice chart :-)
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You find me a chart from the ecm where it has CONSISTENTLY toned down the potential & i will say i am wrong.
Each run will show a diffrence however the fact is the ecm thus far has been solid with a cold e~ne pattern to happen in the coming days.
So are you telling me that the 'boom' posts on Saturday for day 7 ECM are showing the same for today for the same day.
Of course it's been toned down!
Of course the ECM has kept the cold pattern, that I am not arguing I'm just simply stating a fact that its been watered down!
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On ECM. The last 3 runs clearly moved away from advecting the cold much further East with the strength and longevity of HLB lessened- it has just kept us on the cold side to this point but to say it hasn't watered down the overall synoptic for a long lived deep cold spell is incorrect. Doesn't mean it can't move back to some of the blinding charts we saw through Friday , Saturday but seems unlikely.
Thank you. I find it bizarre how some members can think the ECM is just as good as what was shown two days ago!
I'm still learning and even I can see the ECM has been watered down.
Anyway let's see if the ECM 12z can stick two fingers up to the GFS
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00z ECM - easterly flow, cold, -10 850s into the east. Nothing "watered down" there.
Slack easterly, -10 850s further East, a lower convection probability.
It has been watered down, but that's to be expected. After all it was 7 days away! FI
Praying the ECM 12z continues and doesn't not push even further to the GFS
South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 6th February 2013>
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Dexter29
Hi Yamkin. Are you being serious? Genuine.
This just sounds like the Meto warnings page.
Therefore big uncertainties