Lynxus
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Posts posted by Lynxus
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First time ive managed to give this badboy a go!
BEEP DAMNIT! BEEEEEP!
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1 minute ago, Panayiotis said:
I wonder if the storms entering the UK in the SW and the storms currently over thw S will 'blow' up as the sun sets... great watching nevertheless!
They will.
Most of the fun doesnt start till 11ish.
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4 minutes ago, Supacell said:
Haha, I really wish I did. There would certainly not be a 2 year storm drought over Belper
Not the only one buddy. I moved to cheltenham cos they seem to always get the storms when gloucester dont.
I have a feeling tonight may be a goodun.
That storm off the coast is where the fun is. Im certain thats where the energy is hiding. As soon as that reaches land, The left and right of it will light up.
The storm over S'hampton right now is just gravy!
The energy is mixed with that new storm in the channel and the stuff out to the far SW.. When all that hits. BOOM !
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3 minutes ago, Supacell said:
Lightning activity has picked up markedly in the last half hour. So this is it, let the fun and games begin (for some).
FOR ALL!
I personally think Supacell control's the weather. Always does what he says... {grumble}
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As expected, More landfall and BOOM!
Think cape is meant to be fairly steady overnight so should see some major booms
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ITS STARTING!
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Woop Woop
Sky around here is looking angry!!!! Wind has even dropped weirdly.. Didn't expect that with a low so close.
Sferics seem to be picking up now we have more landfall. That stuff out the SW will be very interesting when it hits land. I expect quite a lot of build when it happens!
Bring on midnight! All looking so good still. (Apart from people moaning that its all died back! --- Its pretty much expected.)
Seem to be getting some midlevel convection now.
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1 minute ago, Gordon Webb said:
Estofex
Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 18 Jul 2017 13:00 to Wed 19 Jul 2017 21:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 18 Jul 2017 13:48
Forecaster: TUSCHYMESOSCALE DISCUSSION for
... N-France and S-UK ...
Latest remote sensing data indicates two ongoing thunderstorm clusters, one affecting SW-UK and a second one lifting from N-Brittany to the ENE. This activity developed ahead of a NE-ward drifting and deamplifying short-wave in the 300-500 hPa layer, which is also confirmed by latest WV data, showing a rather tight moisture gradient approaching the W-English Channel. This wave is forecast to move NE during the following hours towards CNTRL-UK.
Latest surface data places a warm front over far SW-UK, the E-English Channel towards Belgium. With a gradually consolidating and northward drifting surface low (in response to stronger hight falls to its west due to ongoing amplification of an upper-level trough), this front is forecast to lift north at a leisurely pace. Latest VIS loop indicates full sunshine ahead of both clusters with a deepening Cu field over NE-France in respone to moisture pooling along the warm front. Diabatic heating lowered surface dewpoints a bit, which are now around 15 °C and temperatures in the mid twenties over SW-UK and lower thirties over NW-France (ahead of both clusters).
12Z soundings show strong and even strengthening capping over SW-/S-UK, whereas full mixing and a deepening and dry subcloud layer are present over N-France.
Numeric continues to diverge substantially regarding the track of the thunderstorm clusters with one model suite taking the convection more to the north/northeast towards CNTRL-UK (probably in response to the passing short-wave), whereas another suite (with numerous limited area models) brings the activity more to the NE towards the E-English Channel.
As the MCS over NE-Brittany moves E/NE, it will take profit of uncontaminated inflow of warm/moist air and CAPE of 1-2 kJ/kg along the coast. A dry subcloud layer should support strengthening cold pool activity and a forward propagating MCS to the NE is expected. In addition, channeled NE-erly flow over the English Channel creates most intense LL outflow/inflow convergence along its NE/E-side, so a constant motion in this direction is expected. Onshore convection has a chance to root into the BL with a severe wind gust and large hail threat mainly over N/NE-France. A confined swath of severe to isolated damaging wind gusts is possible affecting the CNTRL-/E-English Channel and surrounding areas during the following hours! Towards SE-UK, a cooling BL offshore and a strengthening cap should force convection to become more elevated betimes with an excessive rainfall and large hail risk. However ongoing intense diabatic heating and expected strong NE-erly inflow over far SE-UK may keep this activity near surface based with an ongoing severe wind gust risk from onshore moving convection. During the night, this activity spreads towards Belgium and offshore towards the S-North Sea with a lowering severe risk.
The ongoing activity over SW-UK is forecast to lift north and northeast betimes in response to the passing short wave. Despite latest VIS data indicating surface based activity just offshore of SW-UK, the general mode should be an elevated one with an isolated excessive rainfall and large hail threat.FINALLY! Estofex! This could become amazing now they are on board!
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1 minute ago, Nick L said:
That is not a supercell.
Also, that is a MASSIVE! hook
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Convergence clearly visible down south moving up the south / south western side tomorrow night.
I do find this break in PPN a little odd though.
It seems to appear then vanish then re-appear over the far SW
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53 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Really hope this model is correct , we have had loads of" potential " thunderstorms this season and received zilch
I really try not to get too hyped now-a-days however this does look very promising.
Im currently in Cheltenham and looks like it may be hit dead on..
I cant wait for estofex's forecast tomorrow. If there isn't a big Level2 over here i will be shocked.
Based on whats being progged, I suspect extremely frequent lightning, heavy rain and probably some very damaging winds.
BRING IT ON!
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Well, estofex.org have a warning out today (I say warning.. Its a chance of thunder) anyway...
They are normally on the ball. So may get something later!
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Absolutely nothing here so far.
Hoping later today may produce something however Estofex dont really predict anything and thats normally bad for IMBY.
Currently cool, cloudy and windy here. Certainly not "storm" weather. (Cheltenham)
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Right then boyes!
That time of year again and the next few days looks AWESOME! for potential.
Potentially for some VERY nice storms in the east tomorrow evening if there is any ignition..
Not a "huge" amount of convergence going on though so i guess the front itself needs to trigger against the heat.
Cant Wait for tomorrows Estofex forecast! Plz be a level2 over us.. They are rarely wrong for L2's
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Time to get this badboy back out!
Couple left on various amazon stores.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_1?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=lightning+detectors&rh=i%3Aaps%2Ck%3Alightning+detectorsI think someone on NW.TV sold them last year also?
If not, you have a few options to get realtime lightning data:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=
or
http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php
BRING ON THE STORMS! (Even though April has been quite quiet this year!)
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10 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Any thoughts on the Brecon Beacons or Mendips/Exmoor? Looking for a day to go walking in it but also when the weather is nice enough to. Saturday would be ideal but it's looking possibly inclement again by then.
Based off current models of the 850 air mass, wind direction and precipitation, Id say anything a good few hundred feet above sea level and on the western side of the country could see some white stuff. Maybe a good covering. Anything say east of Bristol I think will likely not see much.
All showers appear to be coming from a NW direction and probably fizzle out over land.
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1 minute ago, Arnie Pie said:
mmm.......yep noticed the thunder storms just down the M5( Brizzel way
Hopefully spiralling up on the side of the LP, for later this afternoon, to the Midlands
Seems to be currently just NW of Gloucester
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Crack of thunder here. Few strikes. AMAZING looking clouds.
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15 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:
hmmm?
Im fairly certain the met office use a random number generator to make that map.
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God i hope some of this potential moves a touch south. Cant wait to see estofex's forecast tomorrow morning.
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Big storm growing out in the biscay area not really progged by estofex today.
Looks like there may be a westward shift giving the SE a bit more of a head on smash today.
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Been lovely down here in the far South West. Can seem some massive CB's to my east along the coast heading out to sea.
Apparently there was a tornado in Cheltenham today.. Been thundering in Glos and Chelt on and off now for days.. Yet this always happens when i head out on holiday.
Fingers crossed something comes this way later.. (Unlikely)
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5 minutes ago, James_southampton said:
Appologies if this is a stupid question but can storms still form behind the trough?
They can do, especially with a good amount of surface heating.
However, It seems behind this one there isnt much in the way of convergence, heat or even any cape .. Central England however looks like its about to explode.
Nom Nom Nom.
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4 minutes ago, marksp said:
this link shows some of the issues we are having at the moment. not sure of any technical info with the chart but them westerly winds look naff.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-1.22,51.20,512
Thats @10Hpa so quite high up. Pretty much the polar vortex if im not mistaken.
I dont think it has a HUGE direct impact on our weather
This is a bit more interesting at the 850hpa mark.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-1.22,51.20,512
Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Weirdly just started picking up sferics ~40mi from here.
Not seeing it on the other detectors .. Odd..
VERY thundery looking!