Lynxus
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Posts posted by Lynxus
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5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Observations from Bristol indicate current temperature at 1'c. Although precipitation is mainly sleet likely to be because of light precipitation. Once precipitation intensity increases with more evaporative cooling from the SW likely to see the band of rain ready to turn to snow
Have had snow at 5c before and its stuck, so dont worry tooo much about 0 or 1c..
850's cold enough? Maybe some evap coooling.
To be fair, its also midnight so temps are nice and cool.
Even if it rains, it can quickly turn to snow and settle.
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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Very quiet in here which often happens when some snow is imminent for certain areas .
This slider low must surely go down in NW history as one of the most microscopically analysed , with every jog south or north by a few miles met with panic or joy !
Putting aside this current saga which is drawing to a close we have seen some interesting trends over the last day on both the ECM and GFS trying to develop a ridge near Scandi towards day ten.
Looking at the De Bilt ensembles we’re beginning to see a small cluster developing some very cold conditions.
There are hints upstream that we could see a bit more amplitude developing after a relaxation of the positive PNA.
This would help as it will begin to pull back the PV and send a bit more energy se which you need to develop lower heights over Southern Europe to support any high.
It might be that we might need more than one attempt to get that Scandi high but perhaps it might arrive a bit sooner if the models are still slow at picking up the correct MJO signal . Singularity a few pages back made an excellent post regarding that and it does seem that the models forecasts were wrong and weakening the signal.
So after an initial suggestion that things might turn milder it’s possible we could see the mainly cold weather extended .
I dont know Nick, (To be fair, you should know...? I recognise the name from a long ago.)
Years ago this place would of been unbearable (10 to 20 posts every few seconds ) , lucky now its all split out more than it used to be so I guess better in a way.
- More in topic..
What i find most impressive is how the last few days its gone from being a very much midland and north snow event to being a midland and south snow event.
Time is ticking by and soon we will know for sure!In times like this I always take GFS and METO with a pinch of salt. They work well for westerlies but as soon as we get the 1/10 setup's they suck!
They just dont have the data needed to make a good guess and I see this year after year after year... As soon as its east, north or south, They cant handle it. Coming from the west? They will nail it.-
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1 hour ago, Dafydd Tomos said:
If the severe gales and snowline clash anywhere, then the places underneath would get a right pasting with snow drifts! Hopefully they'll stay apart!
I cant see them merging as the gales are on the warmer side of the pressure system.
North of the gales would be where the snowline is and the models do sort of show this.
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Is that a beasterly i see in the far far far far far FI.. Like.. So far.
Closer to now... Monday looks like fun still., 850's aint as cold as they really should be
Yet it does still show good for the trailing edge to have a decent amount of snow for midlands south..
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Just now, Mountain Snow said:
Currently in conwy north Wales, very warm and humid here with a slight breeze. The sun is very odd, blood red like a sunset although it's high in the sky, never seen anything like it! A bad omen?!
Dust
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7 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:
Because the initial fax chart didn't take into consideration the NHC still class(ed) her as a hurricane.
Well that's not gonna confuse people who are constantly told that hurricanes don't exist in the northern hemisphere
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Just now, Nick L said:
One for the archives...
Why is that a correction? What was wrong lol..
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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Cat 3
Wow, This winter is going to be full of surprises!
When was the last time the Azores was hit by a Cat3? Surely it must of been quite a long time ago.. (if ever?)
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Neighbours fences have been in disrepair for many years but wont do much about it.
Maybe this will remove them entirely.
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Lol t he direction of these cells make no sense currently.
Some to the SW moving NE, Some also Move SE, Some E and Some going North.
Doesnt seem to follow surface flows or 850's
I guess slack 500's mean they go whereever
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Gonna be some serious flash flooding from these.
They are barely moving and monsoon kind of rainfall
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Yeah it's odd. It's very humid mind.. it was 24c now it's down to 20c.
Thunder every minute. So not reaaaaalllll active but still good.
Very slow moving in a southeast direction
Hail.. woooooooooo
Also new strikes north of us.
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Woooooooooo
Thunder and lightning.
Very heavy rain.. just coming towards Gloucester airport
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Just now, Frosty. said:
Hope we get more days like this, great buzz in here, like the model output discussion in winter on the rare occasions when snow is imminent!
First rule of snow club!
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1 minute ago, Chris K said:
Some storms skimmed South of here in parts of Bristol, so I saw a few distant flashes. I was feeling more optimistic when I saw that rash of storms flare up in the channel, but unfortunately they were steered too much NE as they moved up. I don't know if this was expected or not, because most of the models in the morning were showing something much different and caught up as they day and evening went on. Shows how difficult it is to forecast this kind of thing and always always comes to watching the skies and radar...
Yes, 100% its always a case of nowcasting. However when you see storm watches, models and even the met-office show the west as being battered.. It always winds me up when it goes east over london way.
8/10 times It will go east.
Today again, it shows a good chance, yet I can be sure that NOTHING will happen.
The river severn and the small landmass to the the SW i think makes a huge difference and the models dont account for it.
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What a shame it turned out to be nothing here.
Weather forecasts went from hours after hours of thunder and rain to a small shower at 6 this morning.Can never trust any of the charts, models and forecasts for this area. Its always wrong.
Today again it shows thunder and rain. I bet nothing happens here.
Edit: Current forecast for here is from 13:00 to 17:00 80% storms..
Translation: Sunshine
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Not long now...
Its starting to explode down south
Swales, SW and South coasts!
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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Plenty of warmth aloft tonight spreading north out of France to fuel this elevated storms threatening the south coast, 850mb temps of 17-18C as per radar with T850 overlay
Explains why that london storm is dying and why theres a huge blocking going on over the SW that just wont ignite!
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1 minute ago, Karl83 said:
Lol - I think I can see what's happening here.
Tell me about it.
The ingredients are there for something epic, Yet again.. East side get it.
East for storms. east for snow. :shakesfist:
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We have convection!
Towers rocketing everywhere now!
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Waiting for the explosion!
Not long now!
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Only a matter of time!
Some very big CB's on Sat
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BEEPING IS GETTING CLOSER!
<ramp>
Tornadoes and supercells everywhere tonight!
</ramp>
... Tie down any gazebos!
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Just now, Chris K said:
Shame the storms off the coast near Torquay have too much of an easterly influence, as it doesn't look like it'll head this way now.
I wouldnt worry too much.
A) Plenty building to the south.
B) They wont head NE for long.That stuff South of exeter will explode when it reaches land. I suspect the south will be very busy soon.
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards
in Regional
Posted
"North" of the low will be fine. Anything under that will suffer.