Lynxus
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Posts posted by Lynxus
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Boooo
Looks like all the panic over nothing.
intense snow up north and now a nice clear skies on its way.
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49 minutes ago, chris55 said:
Looking at the radar the more intense echoes certainly look to be further east than forecast!
We will be in the 'zone' for many many hours yet to come. The lighter persistent stuff we are currently getting will build up, however I reckon we could well be in for some much heavier snow later on.
Drifting is already becoming apparent even with this lighter stuff, imagine where we will be if it peps up!
and with us being quite far north I don't see any chance of freezing rain or the like
Its good fun, Just been wizzing around a parking lot for funzies! Gotta love the "drifting" #mycardrifts
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Just now, **!!** said:
Hi guys, fairly new to this.
Is Storm Emma behaving how forecast? What are your predictions for its track, will it push further North? How is this having a impact on the rest of the UK weather?
Hi,
Welcome to the forum, Please visit your profile and add your location (roughly)
With regards to the forecast, it (to me) seems more east that projected.
I am expecting it to head north a bit, however the showers seem to be loosing strength quickly.
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Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:
I have been shouting this from 7am I said it on hear about 10 pages ago lol. .
What sthe update? I dont see it.
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
Doing a bit of reading, it seems that freezing rain can occur when temps between 1km and 2km (roughly 850hPa then?!) are between 0 and 4C. Currently, 850hPa temps on the South coast are between -2 and 0.
That sucks so badly.
However , you are like, next to a massive body of warmer water. So.. The snow as it is is like ultra rare!
Make the most of it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!iiiiiiiiiiiiiii
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Just light stuff here.
Shame really. Hope for some bigger flakes. So much for blizzards aye lol
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Is it me or is the bulk further east? moving up from the south currently?
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16 minutes ago, knocker said:
The 0600 Icon as the low and warm front track north bringing the snow and strong south easterly winds into the south west and Wales
If only it was 50 miles further east!
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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
What an odd chart, can anyone explain to me why this low pressure barely moves for days on end and won't move eastwards as normal? Is the eastwards reversal that strong it's stopping all energy in the Atlantic in its tracks? Jet?
I think the jet being so far south isnt helping it along
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3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
Do the models agree that the cold spell vanishes by the weekend
Oh, Absolutely not, ..
Think I was fishing for someone to go " Hey you there! Looks at allllll these other models showing an eastward trend and colder uppers!! GFS too progressive etc etc etc"
Bored of convincing myself
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8 minutes ago, mrmonopoly said:
Not a single flake has fallen in my area in south wales
in fact this beast from the east has given us some brilliant sunshine for ages
We have had a few showers, but nothing of major note here in Gloucester.
I was pegging my hopes and dreams on tomorrow but i think friday is now my only chance with rain on sunday.
Friday seeing some snow. Probably of the wetter variety.
If only the system went east by 200 miles.
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So GFS shows the show the low going up into Ireland and the icon shows its moving east along the channel...
Clearly some major changes going to happen over the coming days.
I personally dont like to trust the GFS when we get easterlies.
It just doesn't cope well at all with it and is always more progressive than the other models back into warmer temperatures.
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Just now, Ice Day said:
I think that's a very fair point. The SSW has had a significant nnd violent impact on the entire northern hemisphere weather patterns, so maybe there's more that aren't yet visible to the models. However, I think if we can get through tomorrow with only minor changes we can be fairly confident that the models are converging on the correct solution. As I said earlier though, 72 hours for an easterly is what I'm working to before the family get told!
Agreed.
I always see the models struggle so much when it comes to eastern dominated weather patterns. The constant western data just meddles with it.
Its always wanting to go back to the Atlantic and after a while, after some days of data, it finally comes true (I see this on all models every year)
I personally think it holds true with any shortwaves and any return to the Atlantic, It takes a few runs to get that going again
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Good olde La Nina,
Its funny how this place changes from WESTERLIES EVERYWHERE! to cold in a matter of hours.
One thing ive noticed year on year is that the models hate having to deal with any form of blocking or long term cold.
Anything further out than a few days and they always seem to point to a warmer west and the Atlantic taking control.The models just cant cope with any other setup. hence the tendency to constantly push back towards it.
Granted, there are signs of extremely brief milder days but they seem to keep getting push away.
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Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:
Someone just posted a chart in the Midlands thread and it looks like south Wales and most of the SW will get heavy snow over night for hours.
Heavy snow started here not too long ago, been snowing all day.
The roads will be chaos tomorrow after its all re-frozen overnight.
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been snowing moderately in cheltenham since 2am. Probably 1cm maybe 2cm in places.
Roads are ok where gritted currently.
Anywhere near the costworlds or outside of town is just impassable. Up the hills have about 3 to 4 inches!
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12 minutes ago, bellanite said:
Back to rain
that is worrying... as you are so high up!
Either way,.... 6 am is the big one. (for round here at least )
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Fyi,,, snowing here.
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1 minute ago, musician said:
Temperature 1 C here in Stroud. Radar says sleet but just checked and light snow is falling so I'm off to bed happy and hope to dream of a winter wonderland!
You should be fine in stroud!!! Wow, 1c? its showing 1c here in cheltenham.. Id expect at least -1 up there... I guess the air coming in has helped upp the temp.
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41 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
That's where I can throw that one right out of the water. It was 2.5°C here the other night, with -8°C uppers, and it was raining. Wet bulb temperatures were too high, and the wet bulb freezing line wasn't low enough.
Eeeeek wow.. Thats erm.. shocking. But worth noting.
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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Does anyone know what the Netweather radar uses to determine the "weather type" for the precipitation??
A mixture of air pressure, surface temperatures, rainfall rates, Upper air temps (850's likely) and others.
Typically, if you have about 4c or less ground temp and -5 850hpa then you normally good for snow.. It does take other variables into account but that is a good indicator. (always has been for me and not really let me down)
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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
And to be fair here in Keynsham now it's more snow than it is rain but only very small flakes.
Good to know!
Here its ~0c . If brizzol has flakes, thats a good sign.
This system has come south further than expected! think about the poor folks up north who were getting a pasting who are now in for a starry night.
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Just now, Dean E said:
Exactly, where that centre goes will be interesting overnight!
What may also help others is, as the low passes, colder air gets brought down on its left side.
This can turn what has been a wet night into a snowy day. (and even settle in higher intensity falls)
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Some very interesting growth to the south currently.
Circle 2 (second from left) i think is what the MetO were alluding to for the red alerts..