Lynxus

Getting very gusty here now. Been breezy most of the day, but now its very windy compared.

I was expecting the rain to be worse.. However Here we havent had much at all.. Are we thinking a lot of convective rain? The showers behind appear quite potent.. Maybe they will "pep" up when they hit land?

They both just went offline...... Something happened lol. Watched while both streams died.

Heads + Sand + Burying

Danger Danger: TORNADO WATCH 2014/001 ( FROM TORRO ) A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 1125GMT on Wednesday February 12th 2014 Valid from/until: 11:25- 21:00GMT on Wednesday February 12th 2014 for the following regions Parts of (see map) England Wales S Scotland Channel Is IoM THREATS Tornadoes; wind gusts to 100mph; hail; isolated CG lightning DISCUSSION Intense Atlantic low will move from W Eire to W Scotland today. At the surface, a strong cold front will move east across much of Britain, with a very strong WSW'erly flow following, especially into western parts. Although instability along the cold front is meagre, intense forcing and very strong shear along it suggests a tornado risk with this feature, as well as gusts of 60-70mph, locally higher along exposed coasts. Following this cold front, a very tight pressure gradient will move in, especially for Wales and NW England. Very strong gusts of 80-90mph, and perhaps 100mph will affect parts of Wales, and NW England. Although these may occur independent of convection (and the risk is already covered by UKMO warnings), convection may enhance gusts, and thus this forecast includes this risk. The flow may be too intense for a tornado risk, but it is not out of the question. Forecaster: RPK.

You are looking at the 850hpa not surface wind. This is what you want. http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/02/12/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-9.07,50.93,1907

Looking very windy here: http://www.exmouthcam.co.uk/webcam/ Although, its pretty damn gusty here already

Is it just me or is this delayed slightly today? ( only a few hours ) But from my reading, it looks like most inland areas could be hit hardest around home rush hour !? Havent checked what the PPN is like, I assume a fair amount.

You must be new here? There is always a lot of IMBY going on and the Mods do a good job at curbing a lot of it before the fists come out ( Ive been guilty a few times of poking the troll ) but thats how it is. The forum always has been and always will be full of weather fanatics who LOVE a good bit of devastation. Its just how we are. There is nothing we can do about the weather. So why not embrace it rather than moan.. Obviously there are a lot of lives lost every year due to it ( and im sure tomorrow this number will rise. ) Its horrible but sometimes people put themselves in danger and its nature. We dont want to see any damage or any loss to life, but it happens sadly. Some people do indeed get carried away and they should sit back and think why. However we ( myself included ) would love to see 100mph winds here.. But it wont happen. Id need to travel. and im working and lazy. So meh, Lets see what happens.

Wow, looks like we will miss the majority of it all now. This time yesterday we were looking to take the brunt of it ( including the rain ) However now its looking like ( here at least ) will miss most of the wind and most of the rain. it seems to "split" north south of here Still as before, Im in two minds if this is good or bad.

A new boat tax will be added. Due to the lack of cars on certain roads they have deemed it necessary to charge boat owners for the use of roads. In all honesty the lack of response from the Gov is terrible. the fact that now oxford / Thames are now being affected suddenly makes it all so much more serious. Gah. im so tired of this Gov. /rant . no more from me. With regards to the weather tomorrow. Im somewhat happy and saddened by the fact that it wont hit here. We are all storm enthusiast here, We love extreme weather. So im somewhat excited and worried. To me, its not a matter of who is happy or sad about the weather.. It makes ZERO difference. So if it hits you, Enjoy it while you can ( if you can ) Tomorrow is going to be very bad for a lot of people. but at the end of the day, its the UK weather and we are lucky its hitting now when the trees are not in full bloom! The gov need act and to be honest, i think they should force some parts of the country to stay home. Dont go commuting. Its almost impossible to get into tewksbury at the moment due to the floods yesterday and the weekend. Why travel? .

Goes to show how hard it is to predict these lows even 24 hours out. Yesterday, they had the "most likely" for central England and "alternative" for south. Now the "likely" is north where as before there was no mention if it. Not good for some people no matter what. Hold on to your hats!

Yeah, Its reacting about 110 / 120 ( So around 60 / 70 mph in places.. ) Tbh, Im confident that this is going to be a notable storm system that shouldnt be taken lightly. Especially in more open areas.

On a brighter note, After this it looks like we may have a little bit of quieter weather. Board your windows up down on the south / southwest coast, Chain your trees and wheelie bins down, get the cat in and charge your batteries and get some tins + bottles of water. Thats my suggestion for the folk in the worst areas.

Oh My god.. Winds driving that far inland is going to cause some major disruption! 60 to 70 mph winds ! Poor somerset! Just look at it.. then again, the wind might blow all the water away!

What we need is some VERY cold weather. Then when the water freezes it can smashed up and trucked to the coast lol.

Not even had snow in the Cotsworlds this year! Every year without fail we have at least a few days of lying snow. Its not even snowed ( apart from a little icey snow during the recent rainstorms ) What make this winter worse is that summer will be here before we know it and it will just feel strange having autumn for 1/2 a year and then summer again.

If we get a poor summer, I know who to blame.....

I agree there are a few things the gov need to do. Dredging rivers is a good start, but its not very effective as you need to dredge almost all of it for any kind of positive response on water levels. I think some rivers need their banks raising, maybe even widen rivers. Also i think we should look at possibly creating storm drainage systems ( similar to what they have in the usa. ) where on a normal day, would be dry. However during times like this, we can open up and enable rapid drainage from areas affected. I must admit, it doesnt look like the gov are doing much BUT im certain there is a lot of work going on to fix prone areas. here in gloucester a LOT of work ( and still going on ) was done after our very bad floods a few years back. Huge balancing ponds have been created ( and i mean HUGE ) , the banks have been repaired in a lot of area, flood defenses have been installed and on the whole its a lot better. However, The bottom line is, Flooding happens. We cant get away from it, we need flood plains. the water has to go somewhere. We need to STOP building on them. Today, travelling around gloucester there are miles upon miles of flooded land. we should never build on it or near it.. yet we do

It will be nice to see some colder weather what with the models showing further wet weather. My concern for now is tomorrows heavy rain moving in from the South West which may cause more flooding issues. Could we also see some of the major floods that hit Cornwall a year or so ago? Even places right next to the sea were flooded.. Just no where to drain all this water away.

Its all bottled up. Ready to pounce. Looks like from Mid month things may take a turn much colder.. 850's showing -10 overthe uk.

Jane. I think we need to simply just forget about storms. I don't think ive had a decent one around here now for a good 3 to 4 years. Had one or two cracks of thunder and thats it. Ive had to travel to find them. Gone are the days of big MCS's moving up from the south, getting stuck in the valley and hanging around for hours. It just doesn't happen anymore. Its been essentially a bit breezy from time to time and mostly moist with some nice clear crisp days. Dunno what all the fuss is about everywhere else

Clearly our entire coastline's defenses need a good looking into after this winter... We have been far too complacent with old defenses.

All I can think of is that cars poor metalwork about ot be corroded to shiznit from the sea salt. Go drive through some freshwater puddles

Very much so. Its got the point now where people ask what the weather will be like and I simply say, If its blue and calm, then tomorrow will be rubbish. If its windy and raining then tomorrow will be blue and calm. Its now simply rain, dry, rain, dry , rain, dry over here.