Lynxus

"North" of the low will be fine. Anything under that will suffer.

Have had snow at 5c before and its stuck, so dont worry tooo much about 0 or 1c.. 850's cold enough? Maybe some evap coooling. To be fair, its also midnight so temps are nice and cool. Even if it rains, it can quickly turn to snow and settle.

I dont know Nick, (To be fair, you should know...? I recognise the name from a long ago.) Years ago this place would of been unbearable (10 to 20 posts every few seconds ) , lucky now its all split out more than it used to be so I guess better in a way. - More in topic.. What i find most impressive is how the last few days its gone from being a very much midland and north snow event to being a midland and south snow event. Time is ticking by and soon we will know for sure! In times like this I always take GFS and METO with a pinch of salt. They work well for westerlies but as soon as we get the 1/10 setup's they suck! They just dont have the data needed to make a good guess and I see this year after year after year... As soon as its east, north or south, They cant handle it. Coming from the west? They will nail it.

I cant see them merging as the gales are on the warmer side of the pressure system. North of the gales would be where the snowline is and the models do sort of show this.

Is that a beasterly i see in the far far far far far FI.. Like.. So far. Closer to now... Monday looks like fun still., 850's aint as cold as they really should be Yet it does still show good for the trailing edge to have a decent amount of snow for midlands south..

Dust

Well that's not gonna confuse people who are constantly told that hurricanes don't exist in the northern hemisphere

Why is that a correction? What was wrong lol..

Wow, This winter is going to be full of surprises! When was the last time the Azores was hit by a Cat3? Surely it must of been quite a long time ago.. (if ever?)

Neighbours fences have been in disrepair for many years but wont do much about it. Maybe this will remove them entirely.

Lol t he direction of these cells make no sense currently. Some to the SW moving NE, Some also Move SE, Some E and Some going North. Doesnt seem to follow surface flows or 850's I guess slack 500's mean they go whereever

Gonna be some serious flash flooding from these. They are barely moving and monsoon kind of rainfall

Yeah it's odd. It's very humid mind.. it was 24c now it's down to 20c. Thunder every minute. So not reaaaaalllll active but still good. Very slow moving in a southeast direction Hail.. woooooooooo Also new strikes north of us.

Woooooooooo Thunder and lightning. Very heavy rain.. just coming towards Gloucester airport

First rule of snow club!

Yes, 100% its always a case of nowcasting. However when you see storm watches, models and even the met-office show the west as being battered.. It always winds me up when it goes east over london way. 8/10 times It will go east. Today again, it shows a good chance, yet I can be sure that NOTHING will happen. The river severn and the small landmass to the the SW i think makes a huge difference and the models dont account for it.

What a shame it turned out to be nothing here. Weather forecasts went from hours after hours of thunder and rain to a small shower at 6 this morning. Can never trust any of the charts, models and forecasts for this area. Its always wrong. Today again it shows thunder and rain. I bet nothing happens here. Edit: Current forecast for here is from 13:00 to 17:00 80% storms.. Translation: Sunshine

Not long now... Its starting to explode down south Swales, SW and South coasts!

Explains why that london storm is dying and why theres a huge blocking going on over the SW that just wont ignite!

Tell me about it. The ingredients are there for something epic, Yet again.. East side get it. East for storms. east for snow. :shakesfist:

We have convection! Towers rocketing everywhere now!

Waiting for the explosion! Not long now!

Only a matter of time! Some very big CB's on Sat

BEEPING IS GETTING CLOSER! <ramp> Tornadoes and supercells everywhere tonight! </ramp> ... Tie down any gazebos!

I wouldnt worry too much. A) Plenty building to the south. B) They wont head NE for long. That stuff South of exeter will explode when it reaches land. I suspect the south will be very busy soon.