DR(S)NO
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Posts posted by DR(S)NO
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I'm feeling a change is on the way...if nothing else ,we may get something more seasonal..so 4.0c for me please
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With all this talk of mild weather and potentially a mild Christmas it's made me wonder how this weekends weather was being modelled 14 days ago? After all, that's how many days it is til the big day itself. For instance between tonight and Sunday morning I can see some snow forecast , daytime temps of 3/4 degrees and night time temps of -5 to -10.... Was any of this forecast to be likely from 2 weeks ago?
so , with all that said , I give you the following charts .....c'mon snow...LETSBEHAVINYA
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6.8c please
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My point being that many people see the EC32 as too significant - whereas in fact the EC32 is frequently off target.
I thought my point was therefore pretty clear - I'll try and spell it out for you more obviously next time.
I would have thought that many of the charts posted on this forum are " frequently" off target even at relatively short time periods.
This is the Model Output Discussion forum....as such, one would have thought that any Model Output should be available for discussion.
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It's going to be 10.5c........please
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Yes quite a nasty low for midweek PM with bands of heavy rain for many and some strong winds for a while.
Looking ahead to the weekend sees a complete contrast with rapidly rising pressure across the UK as shown in both GFS and UKMO runs
so it looks like settling down for maybe 2 or 3 days before the high gets shunted towards E,Europe/Scandinavia again.
GFS mean T180hrs.
How often have we seen the heights building over there in recent months?Along with another Atlantic trough just to our west it's becoming almost our default pattern.
Hopefully this is model related....it does appear to me...that this year has seen a number of low pressure systems move across the UK and then up the North Sea....certainly more so than I can remember in past years.
Is this something that is likely to continue into the winter months and what influence would that have on the weather we would experience ?
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13.5 c please
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An all too familiar story Frosty"..The Ecm 00z shows the weather becoming warmer and more humid across the s/se of the UK during the second half of this week with the best of the weather across the southeast corner bar the odd shower and temps gradually rising into the mid / upper 20's celsius for fri/sat/sun whereas further north and west become more unsettled and breezier with rain and showers but still with some sunshine at times and reasonable temperatures in a swly/sly airflow. Further ahead becoming less warm / fresher for a time from the west but by T+240 hours we are poised (or at least the south is) for a surge of very warm / hot continental conditions to spread northwards beyond day 10 with a trough becoming slow moving to the west of the UK.
If Summer Was A Movie ? ..............................
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So still a rather changeable outlook I'm afraid and with the Summer clock ticking away I get the feeling that any long term Summer UK wide weather is still some way in the distance of at all.
I think your probably right Gibby......
After all , some of us have been waiting almost a year for Summer conditions..☔☔☔
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plus... ive noticed the the fax charts over state the frontal systems, id be rather surprised if the current predicted charts for sunday dont change.
the outlook simply isnt bad, unless anything less then two weeks of sunshine and temps above 25c is whats required.
Hi Mushy.......for those living in the Northern half of the UK...more especially North and west Scotland......I'm afraid that's exactly what's required
And even that would not redeem this non summer.
Anything remotely good in FI remains,for us at least,as far away as ever.
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Latest from the experts sounds very good for the southern half of the uk next week with increasingly settled and warmer weather which starts in time for this weekend as the azores high ridges up across the south, becoming drier, brighter and warmer and turning very warm in the south next week which is what the models are showing today. It still sounds disappointingly cool and unsettled across the north / northwest of the uk but with fine interludes although i'm hopeful that will change for the better because the models do show an improving picture further n/nw next week. The extended outlook for the second half of august sounds very summery for the south of the uk and gradually improving further n/nw too with longer fine and warm spells. So whilst most of july was pish poor, certainly across the n/nw, august looks like seeing a strong comeback for summery weather.
Here's hoping you're right Frosty.....quite frankly I could count the number of days we've had sunny weather,or temps above 20c,on the fingers of one hand!!
It wouldn't be a " comeback" for this part of the world because there really has been no summer this year..........my worry is that the extended outlook has shown room for gradual improvements since May.....but to no avail
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15c...nothing special.....'Nuff Said...☔ï¸
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Summer ?!?!?!
Pah....
Pffttt.....
Pi##....
Feel free to add your own comments ..................
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Charts looking pretty average to say the least, quite unsettled with some much needed rain to be honest, it has actually been a dry summer!
Tomorrow Morning is looking wet for quite a lot of the country, but quick clears.
Furthder out into the runs, looks pretty average to me, cool Nw'erlies, though some days look quite showery too me which could be good for more thunder risk for parts of the country.
Im afraid im gonna have to disagree with this bit, there ha actually been 3/4 different plumes,since the end of june and not just 1 brief one so to be honest it has really been a rinse and repeat in the last 4 weeks, mid to highs 20's for majority of parts, and a couple of 30's in there too.
As for the rest of the summer, and im including the first part of September too, there is plenty of time for more heat still.
This is just my view on it
Oops Stormyking....I'm guessing that,whilst some will agree with you, a lot of folk on here.....certainly further north and west would take issue with some of this.
Certainly not been a dry summer up this way.....and I would LOVE to have experienced mid to high 20s this summer.....in fact mid to late teens has been the order of the day....and if August fails to deliver then this Summer will go down as very poor in my book.....
But I guess that's the UK for you....many in the SE will no doubt view it as a pretty warm and sunny one...
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Yes that would only be bettered by 2010 in my lifetime - unfortunately it wont come to fruition!
As most folk probably said pre 2010....
You just never know with the weather.....
It seems weird talking about Autumn when I've yet to have any Summer weather of note but I would so like to have some seasonal Autumn weather....
For it to gently ease in ....some beautiful early Autumn warmth but with knowledge that frost isn't far away......as nights draw in give me some proper Autumn storminess and let this later give way to the first touches on the Winter to come...
That'll do me fine..
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Heating on tonight?? Brr
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Looking further ahead on the Gfs 6z, a noticeable feature is the reloads of hot weather from the continent, apart from that, the south looks best for fine and warm conditions.
Yes ,as you say Frosty, reloads of hot weather are quite apparent. Also apparent is how the fine and warm weather continues to evade much of the North and and Northwest of Britain.
Summer has really failed to get going up this way....basically swapping the very cool early June for warmth in the last week or so...and tbh is doesn't seem as though there are signs of a period of decent weather.....more than a day or two, here and there.
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Well, I think some of us will definetely be seeing some action today...but where?
Very warm and sultry at the moment with a strong wind picking up .
Looks as though the real action could be further north and east later on......already some interest further towards the northwest and currently moving in towards the Edinburgh area.
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I'm pretty confident tomorrow night will materialise ....in fact I'm 100% sure ........BUTNice looking GFS charts on the latest run, hoping that tomorrow night does materialise here but I'm not too optomistic.
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17c please
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Wet earlier, brighter now, and warm. Again! What's happening?
Crazy.HC...now, I know this is only a theory and....I could be way of the mark here..
But it could ,just could, be something to do with this thing called Summer??
I believe I've seen some folk referring to it on the MT
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We'll certainly some interesting weather coming up next week...a bit of something for everyone hopefully.
It's looking like the initial thundery weather will be around the west coast from later Tuesday ....with the peak of the interest later on Wednesday ....could well be some flash flooding around after the significant build up of heat etc during the day.....I'd imagine we'll be seeing some smashing storm photos through the week.
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Hmm....I see some on the model thread are going a bit crazy on the possible record breaking heat for next week.
I guess for many of us we like to see the extremes in weather ,as that's the pay off for much of the crap we endure for the majority of the year!!
Next week for heat and storm lovers "may " end up as enticing as Dec 2010 was for the cold lovers.
However,I'm afraid im not particularly embracing the thought of temps in the mid 30s( I know that's unlikely here) or the humidity or the potential for severe storms. I just saw a chart that had 26c for the SE at 2am !!!!!!
My concern comes from the health impacts for some folk both young and old .....and also the severe flooding that comes from flas flooding and the impact that has .....I'd be more than happy for a spell of nice summer weather ,say early to mid 20s..especially after this summer so far.
So ,for me, the SE can keep what's shown for next week...much as it's exciting to see.
DR (S) NO
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Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...
in Regional
Posted
Hi folks...currently hovering just above zero...been snowing ( nice fluffy flakes) for around 1.5 hrs...down in Helensburgh ...probably about an inch out with town ....seems to be turning a bit lighter atm..