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DR(S)NO

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Posts posted by DR(S)NO

    Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The first half of winter.

    This confuses me..admittedly it happens easily!!

    Only a few weeks ago it felt as though we could be about to have a great December. Yet now forecasts are poorer( if it's cold your after)

    So why should I believe the current output will 'break' the first half of Winter?

    • Like 2

    December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 25 November 2016 at 14:41, DR(S)NO said:

    4 c please .......I think after the first week or so we will see Winter start up..... Quite convinced we will see some decent Winter weather this December ..... And my money is firmly where my mouth is with a small wager on a White Xmas

    image.gif

    After noting some of the longer range comments over on the model thread im now even more convinced we are likely to experience a great festive period.

    im also reducing my guess to 2.5c please ....Brrrr

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

    Its not winter that is over, I don't think a single a person has said winter is over.

    But an average winter in the UK doesn't have this much PV disruption or amplification so we have been gifted a window of opportunity to get some cold weather flowing, but how long will this last? It is HIGHLY unlikely to last 3 let alone 2 months so we want to take the chance now before the window passes and who knows how long that window will stay open for.

    Basically we want to take the chance ASAP before is slides and the PV returns to normal, lets hope that happens no earlier than new year giving us a solid month or so for plenty of model watching fun and tears. 

    Could be completely wrong here but, presumably, as much as we're  told that a disrupted PV gives us a good opportunity at seeing cold snowy weather .... We're also told that it doesn't guarantee it. Therefore surely even if it got its act together there's still every chance we can have numerous chances of decent winter weather.

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Another feature of the Gfs 18z is that we were a gnat's whisker away from full blown arctic airmass and yet we still ended up with reloads of polar maritime so on future runs we could see the arctic floodgates open wide..plenty for coldies to be encouraged about, not only later next week but through the rest of November and beyond.

    I think you're right Frosty ... It seems to me that as we move towards the latter stages of November were looking at greater chances of wintry weather ..... Before winter proper begins. 

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Latest snow prediction from the Gfs 18z, it looks like the hills of northern England and Scotland are in for significant accumulations later tomorrow and into midweek, even a risk of localised coverings on some lower ground in the north and it will be cold everywhere, especially across scotland with sharp night frosts over the snow fields..seems strange saying that on Nov 7th but in a very good way!:D:santa-emoji:

    18_24_preciptype.png

    18_30_preciptype.png

    18_42_preciptype.png

    18_12_uk2mtmpmin.png

    18_21_uk2mtmp.png

    18_48_uk2mtmp.png

    18_60_uk2mtmpmin.png

    18_252_preciptype.png

    Indeed Frosty.

    I don't think I can ever remember the words ' snow fields' used at this stage of Autumn.... Yes, it's still Autumn were talking about!

    Ive got this feeling that we could be about to experience a very special Winter indeed!!!

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Hopefully it won't end up being the other s-word that ends with t..which applied to all of last winter!:closedeyes::shok:

    I must say the models are looking more interesting with talk of rather cold temps by day and night for the next few weeks.:D:cold-emoji:

    You know what Frosty... At least it feels seasonal at the moment.... Something we really don't see often enough!!

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

    A fascinating ECM D10 mean

    EDM1-240.GIF?04-12

    Low pressure pushing from the WNW to ESE well to our south. High pressure 1025mb over Scandi - a fairly decent mean high for a D10 chart.

    The GEFS wants to bring the Atlantic back in after mid-month but I'm taking that with a pinch of salt, as the Scandi High has proved pretty resilient in the past two months and has gained in strength as time has gone on.

    The question for me will be whether low pressure gets far enough into Europe to prevent a Mediterranean influence on eastern Europe. If it does, then central/eastern Europe will just continue to cool, cool, cool.

    Dare I mention the s-word? You can easily get s*** through northern Germany and into Poland by late October if the synoptics are right. If Scandi High proves even more resilient that the charts currently suggest, and lows keep getting directed into France rather than us, I absolutely wouldn't rule out the s-word from being an issue for the UK in just 4 weeks time, too. 

    This would then tie in with all the newspaper articles , in the last week or so,that warned of UK snow in the next 6 weeks. This was then to lead to at least 6 weeks of heavy snowfall.

    So there must be every chance possible that this could happen... I read it in at least 3 papers:oops:

    Oh, was just going a wee bit crazy there at the very thought of the s-word.. Sorry  

    • Like 2

    August 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 19 August 2016 at 16:56, reef said:

    If this month were to finish on 17.8C then this summer would be the 10th warmest since 1900 and joint 19th warmest in the entire CET series!

    Like a lot of other good summers it would have a disappointing June (rain and sunshine-wise) and good July and August aswell. 

     

    With 11 days of the month left I think there is still quite a large range of possible outcomes when it comes to the final temp.

    Apologies for picking your quote Reef....it may well end up being the 19 th warmest in the CET series but it just goes to show the great differences in weather experienced  around our country.

    Could be wrong but I guess there are many who would dispute the idea that this has been a good Summer ... And, indeed , whether it's been a good July and August.

    The only statement I could make about this Summer in my neck of the woods is that it's been better than last Summer.

    • Like 1

    Scotland - Weather Chat - Spring 2016 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Woke up around 2 ish to a crazy storm. Lasted about 30 mins... Lots of lightning, really loud thunder and some of the most torrential rain I've seen in years...couple with gusty winds...I say seen,but really heard, as the power was cut and the area  was in black. Which made the storm even more impressive! Seemed to be an impressive amount of strikes in our area and to the west of me ... Anyone else experience this?

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