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DR(S)NO

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Posts posted by DR(S)NO

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Frosty. said:

    Yes it's wonderful, could call it Mediterranean! :D Great looking models for this working week with plenty of very warm / hot and humid sunny weather with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm today, a higher risk of catching one tomorrow across southern uk but still well scattered so many places will stay dry and sunny..perfick weather.

    th.jpg

    Hmm, tbh I'm a bit lost... Nothing to grumble about today or tomorrow:)

    But normal service looks like resuming on Wednesday...

    image.thumb.png.95947821ecc6df1058b4cd75e5227bc9.png

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

    A heatwave that will actually include me?! This weekend looks horrific so far 

    If your lucky Ross we may even have some sunny intervals tomorrow......Ooooooo

    Its been like Groundhog Day the past week or so with monotonous greyness and damp to wet weather .

    Never mind... Our time will come.

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

    Where did next weeks warm spell go?:cc_confused: The Ecm 00z for example looks much cooler than last evenings 12z.

     

    1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

    I think it's best not to have knee jerk reactions to the 00z output as a day is a long time in model watching and the 12z could be a different story. Today's MO update will be interesting as to whether it sticks with the summery outlook or not..I hope we see a warm / very warm early-mid May.:)

    Yeah Frosty, best to not have any knee jerk reactions........:)

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I was just about to say...the last update of the GLOSEA model hinted at an Atlantic meets continent type summer...so yes I would say at this point it looks possible we may see a warm, thundery summer. 

    Then again, it's entirely plausible (as we see and have seen many times) that the seasonal models are just taking a nearer time signal and extrapolating that into a full seasonal average.

    Could this also be seen as possibly a warm, wet summer?

    Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Interesting Gfs 6z low res which shows winter isn't finished with us yet as it shows quite a lot of snow across northern hills with frost / ice additional hazards together with a lot of rain and wind too..would be quite a shock following the spell of high pressure and pleasant temps next week.

    06_288_preciptype.png

    06_336_preciptype.png

    06_360_preciptype.png

    06_360_uk2mtmpmin.png

    06_288_mslp500.png

    06_336_mslp500.png

    06_360_mslp500.png

    06_384_mslp500.png

    Gosh Frosty, could end up being a rather chilly Easter then.

    Could it be one of those years that shows a colder Easter than Xmas?:cold:

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    All well and good blue although it's not a good synoptic pattern though is it? This wkend aside I mean. We have a compact vortex moving to siberia, and one massive euro high with southerlies. It's been an epic fail yet again and people use the same old words every time "potential"

    I would say the only bit with potential is this wkend, yet the only day with meaningfull instability is the day milder air floats over from an easterly. You litterelly couldn't make it up in this country it's by far the worst place in the world given our latitude for snow and the more time I spend here the more frustrating it's becoming. 4 years now with no snow which in itself is actually laughable and easily worse than any of the milder snowless winters in the past. It's been a lot worse even than 2006-7 when the likes of Ian Brown made his theories up. But now I'm thinking he was probably onto something because bar that group of winters between 08-13 he is right. 

    Anyway this will last 2 minutes in here like everything else does that that is slightly controversial why the hell have a weather forum if we can't have a proper debate occasionally.

    It's hard to argue with what you've said SS.

    But regarding the last paragraph , surely if you want a proper debate you could start up a thread?

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, ruzzi (snowboy) said:

    Some much beefier showers now developing out west, fingers crossed 

    IMG_3852.PNG

    One of those showers hitting here now... I post a picture if only because it may be my only chance to post a snow pic this winter... Sigh

    image.jpeg

    May not be much but it's falling snow AND its lying 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

    That ecm upgrade was a waste of money! Still no better at calling uk cold spells!!. To be fair to the UKMO plays it safe by only going out to 144hrs. Hence it seems to have a better handle on events in out little part of the world. GFS and ECM do themselves no favours going out as far as they do as how often does a 240hr or 384hr chart Verify?

     

    I'm just unsure how we can diss a models output for weather in a week or so time.... Until that weather has or hasn't happened.

    • Like 2
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