DR(S)NO
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Posts posted by DR(S)NO
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2 minutes ago, LRD said:
That chart is ok of course but the trend of the movement of that low pressure is a really poor one today for longevity of the cold. Models wobbled this time last week about the spell even happening in the first place. I'm expecting this to be a blip but no dressing today's runs up. Bravo GFS for first spotting this trend for the too-round low getting too close to us
Hi LRD
Hope im not being too stupid here.... but how can we congratulate the GFS for spotting a trend of something that’s almost a week away and may not happen?
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28 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:
Let's just start with the money shot - both the ECM and the GFS agree that, as of Wednesday 12pm, the upper air temperatures will be sitting at -14/-15C over most of Scotland, the wind will be pretty much due east at surface level, and this is the point in the dream where a younger me would've woken up because it's far too good to be true. This time though, it's entirely real - we're now within 5 days of this chart, and within 4 days of a still very snowy looking chart that wouldn't look out of place in November/December 2010:
For comparison:
Now there's a few differences, of course, between that spell and this one. For a start the cold pool in this instance is deeper - we don't know if the -15C uppers will verify but it certainly hasn't diminished to this point and is at least as strong as what was forecast a week ago. The thing that tempers this slightly is that the heights are slightly higher, at least initially - the Warm Air Advection which will deliver this Siberian Arctic beast is going quite literally over our heads in the next 48 hours:
This gives us a much 'cleaner' flow than in 2010 but it still amazes me that we've got down to this point given the tendency of such long track easterlies to either erode away to nothing or plough southwards into the heart of central Europe instead, with us being left in an southeasterly drift with barely a snow grain to show for it.
However, once we get the cold pool in place with the deepest cold at our latitude or a bit to the south, the situation becomes incredibly favourable for snow - with such an impressive block in place the jet becomes out friend, strengthening the easterly flow and, along with troughs and 'kinks' (more on these tomorrow), increasing the snow risk. The GFS tonight highlights the risk of these by the end of the weekend, as you end up with a very deep low which no longer advects cold along its northern edge:
Worrying about the breakdown at this stage is silly when you're staring straight in the face at an incredible spell, but I will come back to the tendency that the models have in general to be 'overprogressive' in their thinking - this spell, while not any less spectacular than on the wildest Fantasy Island runs, has had the odd delay relative to what the models were showing at points, so if I had to bet I would suggest that it's more likely that we'll end up with a continuation of 'easily cold enough for snow' synoptics into the start of next week than not. By that point, however, we might be scunnered of the stuff...As for the details, the basic rule of thumb with easterlies, which has served us pretty well in this forum over the years, is the models tend to underestimate precipitation. The last time we had an easterly of note the range of publicly available mesoscale models wasn't what it is now, so I'm prepared to give them a little bit of benefit of the doubt this time round, but since we're not into the 48 hour range all we have to go off from their output are the snippets from either the Met Office website or the ECM's output on yr.no.
For fun, though, these are the 'final' snow totals on the latest GFS which look fairly similar I think to the 12Z's output:
There's no particular reason to think this is overdone - temperatures throughout to this point are likely to struggle to get above 0C even near the coast through the day from Tuesday onwards, and while there might the odd 'feature' which disrupts the flow of absurdly cold air all that would do would be to enhance precipitation. These along would be shovel-worthy for those of us on the east coast and, whisper it, there's good reason to think that the actual result will be even snowier than this IF the severity and placement of the cold pool ends up where the model consensus currently is.
I'm going to go into more detail on what to look out for tomorrow in terms of timing, mesoscale features, what sorts of areas might be worst hit (due east is a promising direction for the Forth-Clyde streamer...), but that's my teaser for tonight
I’m pretty sure LS that if you posted those ‘ final ‘ snow totals on the Model Thread there would be carnage from those of a SE England persuasion
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2 hours ago, GraemeB said:
In 10 years from now, we'll all be standing in the post office queue reminiscing about The Winter of 2018.
Or maybe not...
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@Hawesy
Consider this for some lucky areas when suggesting snow amounts?
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On 20/02/2018 at 13:08, DR(S)NO said:
3.5c and 77mm please
Okay, go on then....I’m falling for these cold charts and changing my guess to 2.7c..
please
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Early days I know, but, with the very cold weather being predicted for the next couple of weeks.... what’s the chances of March cet being below February cet?
If so, does it happen often?
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3.5c and 77mm please
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13 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:
Guys are out with strimmer and gang mowers around the cathedral this morning. The temp here has hit 7C on maybe three days since early December, don't think the grass has grown since mid November...
Our local cemetery is lucky now if it gets the grass cut 4 times a year..... cost cutting and all that!...(infact nice borders became weeds, then grassed over as they can’t afford to weed!)....
anyhow, if it’s grass cutting day, it’s grass cutting day and no rain, sleet, snow or ice will stop them......
oh, or common sense
doh....
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2 minutes ago, mardatha said:
We woke up to about 3" of solid hard well-frozen snow. Not melted at all and freezing again tonight. Asda home shopping guy moaned like hell at having to come down our wee steep road
Mardatha ...Should’ve gone to Iceland
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@Hawesy I’m still waiting for my predicted 5 cm despite the occasional snow(ish) shower ... currently snow lying on car only.... perhaps Tuesday will be the day?
Anyhow...
Hawesy you got to let me know
Will it rain or will it snow?
If you say that it will rain
I'll be ‘ Oh no not again!’
So you got to let me know
Will it rain or will it snow?
You always tease, tease, tease
You're list of guesses always aims to please
One day it's fine and next it's cack
So if you want me off your back
Well, come on and let me know
Will it rain or will it snow?
Will it rain or will it snow now?
Will it rain or will it snow now?
If it rains there will be trouble
And if I snows then I’ll want double
So Hawesy you gotta let me know
Will it rain or will it snow?
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Hawesy, may I recommend a new measurement tool for your predictions over the coming days....
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Currently light snow just started in Helensburgh .....
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25 minutes ago, Hawesy said:
I lost all of my toys in Crail, years ago.
Will try and get the predictions table done at lunchtime.
I’ll help you with mine Hawsey...
S.F.A ....... and that’s nothing to do with football!
Its Winter Helensburgh style.
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24 minutes ago, Stormeh said:
18z looking good to me for Scotland. Chance of snow anywhere next week starting from Monday night. Cold air coming in from the NW throughout the run with the odd mild blip here and there but staying mostly cold with good snow potential for us
Just a few frames showing the potential snow over the next week or so...
Eh, Stormeh..... sorry, this can’t be right, im sure I read somewhere that .....
1- the cold spell would end on Wednesday
2- forget 1 ... there is no cold spell
3- forget 1 and 2 .... Winters Over
Now, where was it I saw that ?
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23 minutes ago, More Snow said:
after some of the treatment tonight I think I might just step away from the entire forum and just go back to looking out the window. I find it utterly disgusting and totally unfair that some seem to get the right to post what they want when they want and they get to scream and shout and slag others off and nothing seems to happen to them, the post never go missing and the mods never seem to do anything about it, yet I have placed 3 post in the mad house thread tonight some of them moaning about others comments all my comments are removed and yet each and every one of them from others is still in there so can only think it must be some sort of favouritism toward senior members or those that pay for this site... well I would like to say good luck to you all my friends its been a pleasure to spend time with you all. so long fair well.
Work it out More Snow....
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Well done NorthernRab over on the MOD for politely explaining that just because a possible event may not happen in Englandshire doesn’t automatically make it ‘ insignificant and overhyped’...... apparently some of the UK population do live North if the M4!!!
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37 minutes ago, igloo said:
What do they say about march in like a lion out like a lamb march 2013 if my memory serves me right was the coldest for 100 years i had 7ft drifts for 3 weeks with arran near oblituated
Best snowfall for me for a long, long time was in March 2006.... was it the 12th/13th?..... a ridiculous amount of snow fell..... took me back to the 80s and some of the classics!!
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Oof, it’s all getting a wee bitty frantic and excited over on the MOD......
But, what if it all goes wrong?
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25 minutes ago, igloo said:
It must be the coldest run i have seen sice 2010 at least but is probaly just a outlier me thinks al the same it looks cold for the next fortnight for sure i was hoping to see this special moon tonight but as usual to cloudy here so i cant see it and i dont think i will be still here in 150 years time to see it again
Not so long to wait igloo.....
courtesy of space.com
‘We'll have to wait another decade before the next Blue Blood Moon, which will happen on Dec. 31, 2028. (Just when we thought that there couldn't possibly be more adjectives in front of the word "moon," now we have the New Year's Eve Blue Blood Moon to look forward to!)’
Hehe... an even better excuse to have a party!!!
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Jeez, this continuous searching(MOD) for the holy grail easterly from one run to another is
crazy!! Enough already!!
Anyhow, I’ve a feeling our next winter shot for February will be from the North(ish)..... although nothing for the majority of those in that forum to get excited about..
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4.5 c at the moment although I’m seeing encouraging signs that may force me into a rethink.
defo 92 mm though
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4 minutes ago, More Snow said:
go pop that post in there... go on enjoy yourself.
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6 minutes ago, More Snow said:
I couldn't help but have a little bite back at that bloody idiot...
Snap.... just needed to point out the irony in his post
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Ooofftt , I should know better than to look in on the relative insanity in the MOD
etc
Yep folks Winters over.... Indeed some are claiming the ‘reliable’ is awful and then write off the next 6 weeks?!
Over on the CET comp thread apparently another crap Winter is on the cards because the CET for January is likely above the average !
Thank goodness for this thread
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doh....
Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 16/03/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Heavy horizontal snow shower currently in Helensburgh..... don’t imagine it’ll last long but gives an indication of just how brisk that wind is.... brrr