DR(S)NO

For those that hate venturing into the madness of the MT...this just posted from Ian Ferguson...a short while ago.. #1983 fergieweather Members 1,065 posts Gender:Male Location:Bristol, UK Posted 16 minutes ago POPULAR To save you all waiting - similar UKMO-GM from T+120 onwards. Signal for the colder entrainment is one with confidence now next week... how long it lasts, is not. More woes end of next week, re disruptive weather? It's got a bothersome look... -------------------------- Ian K. Fergusson FRMetS Twitter: @fergieweather QuoteMultiQuote Report

Not particularly liking the look of this chart........really poor And the met office have early warnings out for Sunday.... 1. Yellow warning of Rain Dates Warning Chief Forecaster's assessment Weather Impact Matrix Issued at: 1218 on Wed 22 Jan 2014 Valid from: 0600 on Sun 26 Jan 2014 Valid to: 2345 on Sun 26 Jan 2014 Another spell of wet and very windy weather will cross the UK from the west during Sunday. Heavy rain and gales are likely to affect most areas for a time with further flooding possible in prone areas, particularly southern parts of England and Wales where the ground remains saturated following earlier rain. The public should be aware of the possible disruption to transport and the continuing risk of flooding in prone areas. Another Atlantic frontal system is forecast to cross the UK during Sunday. Most areas will see a period of heavy rain and very strong winds, perhaps also some snow for a time over northern hills. Rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 mm are expected quite widely with 35 mm or more locally, especially over southern parts of England and Wales. Expect southerly gusts 40 to 50 mph quite widely, particularly with the passage of the front, and probably peaking 60 to 70 mph or more around exposed coasts and headlands. There is still some considerable uncertainty in the details of this system and this warning will be updated in the coming days. Local Authorities affected and associated warning levels North Lanarkshire, East Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, Argyll and Bute, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow, Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire, West Dunbartonshire And similar for many areas across Scotland Definitely a period to watch carefully !!

Never say never November 13........,Remember these??

Sums up this winter nicely.........i actually got quite excited there ,when there was heavy sleet falling.....a slight covering on the car......has now given up....its pishin doon again!!!

WOW......thats a bit chilly!! AMAZING PICS: Polar vortex turns Niagara Falls to ice THE polar vortex has already frozen Hell and now it has turned one of the world's most famous waterfalls to ice. FROZEN FALLS: Niagara Falls, one of the world's most famous natural landmarks, has been turned to ice by the polar vortex [REUTERS] The record-breaking chill that has swept across North America has now frozen Niagara Falls solid.

Seems to be very mild today...already breached 10c earlier. Huge clap of thunder and lightning around 11am. Quite gusty winds...presuming they are likely to increase in magnitude. Updated SEPA warnings this morning moves the likelyhood of more damaging flooding along the towns seafront ..from flood alert to flood warning......along with quite a few other locations.

Picked this up from the MOD....perhaps a change is on the way...... #571 fergieweather Members 951 posts Gender:Male Location:Bristol, UK Posted 32 minutes ago POPULAR Polar Maritime, on 03 Jan 2014 - 12:38, said: METO are still on board, in line with the trends we are seeing. 18 Jan 2014 to Saturday 1 Feb 2014: "Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month." This prognosis into late Jan-early Feb is based on some emerging signals from UKMO modelling (i.e. contra EC32). I might be able to offer more on this for you all over next few days. Edited by fergieweather, 31 minutes ago. Great Plum, snowking, Tim Bland and 21 others like this Like This -------------------------- Ian K. Fergusson FRMetS Twitter: @fergieweather QuoteMultiQuote Report

Just went for a wee walk along Helensburgh front.......certainly blew the cobwebs away.I see the film crews are out for footage for the news . Police stopping traffic both sides of the front road due to serious flooding.Pier has disappeared under the water and waves crashing onto the main road .Main car park completed flooded and bad news for the folk that thought it would be a good place to park with such serious weather forecast....DOH.

Latest info on the upcoming flood risk ..courtesy of SEPA... Likely to be some nasty conditions around tomorrow...take care.

To all on the Kilted Thread .....may i wish you all the very best for 2014. Health,Wealth and Happiness...........hope the coming year brings us all a bit of what we wish for.But more importantly health for you and your families

bluearmy, on 29 Dec 2013 - 23:00, said: Any word on the 30 day 'cold possibility' Ian? Is it glosea 4 or potential cold clusters at day 15? The latter I believe. Nothing to scare the horses re cold (in strictest sense) until at least mid-Jan, reckon UKMO, but frankly the fixation for now is understandably on rainfall & (to some degree) wind issues for the forseeable. High confidence on the unsettled westerly regime through early to (at least) mid-Jan, but with Pm or rPm phases causing the cooling trend seen in EC ENS... snow/heavy snow for Scotland at times but Exeter stress range of synoptic outcomes into further reaches of trend period, thus confidence declining later into Jan. So, all in keeping with current output available on public websites. Copied over from the MOD ... From Ian Ferguson....perhaps a bit of interest for us at last

Slight change in my original guess please...to 3.7c please

3.2c please

Hi Guys, am sure this has been asked already.......is there a reason why the past few weeks have been so active ? It seems a long time since the weather has been on such a spiral of violent depressions...presumably there is a readon for this particular spell?it alao feels that we are in constant daytime darkness...doom and gloom all round....but certainly an extremely exciting time for weather watching. Id had a gut feeling that we were entering a stormy festive time and posted such in the MOD on 7/12 when replying to posts by Purga. Very aggressive temperature change this afternoon around here...4.4c at 4.40 pm to 9.3c by 5.25pm. Very worrying signs for tomorrow and again on friday.....hope everyone stays safe .

I wouldn't give O'leary any ideas Cheggers..

Dear Santa,Can you please let it be.................................... ..................

If only the Express had a newspaper out that way!!?

Really? No travel problems? Do the models not show some quite high rain totals? Wouldnt be surprised to see bad flooding in the coming weeks....and i think the wind could be an issue for travel too.

My feeling is that there may well be some sort of pattern change from the rather benign weather we will endure over the next week or so. I see the GFS has thrown up a stormy festive period......im probably wrong here,but i feel that the Xmas to New Year period often throws up an acive spell of weather.Ive a gut feeling that there will be some very stormy weather centering around this period and as we enter 2014.

Could you put me down for 3.2c please

Not much happening in the weather then? BBC forecast sums up the next couple of days ....bland and boring. So that'll be dull and 10c then!!

Id happily settle for that again......more than willing to forgo feb and march to experience that 1 in 100 year event ...only a few years later!!Of course id also be very happy to experience a mix of 1947/1963 and 2010....although we may experience this along with it...

Absolutely nothing to do with the weather but read a story in the paper today about the Duke of Wellington statue in Glasgow and noticed this paragraph..... But councillors said it costs £100 each time to remove the cone and added that the frequency is estimated at around 100 times a year, meaning the removal costs for the council is an estimated £10,000 a year. REALLY.....£100 a time to remove a cone..........surely theres a wee part time job here for someone...pretty well paid too,by the sounds of it!! OR we could save the taxpayer £9900 by just NOT removing it.DOH!! Oh yes..weather related picture follows.

Woah,really didnt expect to be scraping my car window at 6 oclock this evening.Temp down to zero....ground very wet from todays rain.Potential for some seriously dangerous conditions out there. If your going out driving....please take care!! Its going ti be very icy later on

Is it not always boring heading south Cheggers??Always a more interesting drive heading homewards.........