Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

Yep CC,i see it buddy It isn't getting anywhere near the UK though

GFS 12Z has certainly moved in the right direction Nick. Still not really seeing where any cold for the UK is going to come from though....

I think it more pragmatism-but believe me i want the op and control to be leading the way.Trouble is,thats my heart talking ....

Thanks Ian,so we can pretty much write off Jan for cold (apart from maybe) the last few days. Sounds to me like they are discounting any potential cold evolution from the ECM then..

Lots of scatter? The vast majority look poor,one hopes the op and control are leading the way or its a long wait for something cold!

I think it is fair to say any potential change in regime is likely to be a very slow burner(if we get a meaningful change at all that is). I mentioned the other day the cold is coming for central and Eastern Europe and the ECM 0z bears that out perfectly as the Arctic air sweeps south and east. In summery,im not convinced of a meaningful change anytime soon...

06Z is hideous for cold! Its actually worse than 0z. And that took some beating.. Still got eh prayer amtt out that Mogreps has spotted a pattern change.A pattern change that needs to encompass the never ending Euro high getting a life somewhere else!!

Its bleak Nick it really is. This winter is fast turning into an absolute disaster for cold weather fans. That Euro high is just a gift that keeps giving..

Yep,as expected the ecm backs away from its 12z run from yesterday. Looks like another week about to be written off for any hope of cold and snow,im beginning to wonder if we might end up with a late 80's type horror show now,i really am. Just having a gander at some of the temps across central and East Europe next week and its staggering,here is a flavour... Minsk (Belarus) sunday cloudy max 3 min 2 monday rain max 4 min 2 tuesday rain max 4 min 3 Wed rain max 5 min 4 Slightly more west into Poland we have wroclaw a western city and its actually beyond belief,check this out - Wroclaw (Poland) sunday dry max 9 min 3 monday dry max 10 min 1 tuesday dry max 8 min 3 Wed dry max ELEVEN min 3 I would imagine temps of 11 degrees in january in Poland are truely exceptional. All this thanks to that huge blocking high across Europe.

Dreadful 0z GFS,hopefully the GEFS look better. UKMO also looks poor going forward at 144- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html with positive height anomalies across Europe I would anticipate Atlantic lows to be driving our weather thereafter. I really hope ECM remains steadfast or I think we can write off the first 10 days of January(and that's probably being generous).

Its a very zonal run with a very disturbed Atlantic but its a more cool zonal with PM air involved so potential for transient snowfall across elevated northern areas.

Greenland Polar vortex/Euro high.

Yep has been the same story since late November thanks to the evil duo the GPV/EH. You have to go way east to see proper cold away from the influence of the HP across much of Europe which has promoted a mild airflow for countries like Poland Germany the Balkans and as far east as Ukraine. Did anyone see such a setup in advance of winter?

Yes-that would be the natural progression unfortunately. A couple of points I feel a bit like a track record really but we need to see the heights across Europe drain away. Once low pressure gets into mainland Europe the ball game changes,until then,its going to be more of the same.

UKMO doesn't look great to my eyes. I'd say the next step would be Atlantic systems moving in mainly thanks to the Euro high deflecting the jet north... Can't see an easy route to cold on the 144 chart. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html GFS offers some cold zonality as we again see those positive height anomalies across Europe kicked into touch..

Yes,i was expecting a downgrade today Fred-i guess there are conflicting signals (not suprising considering the timeframe involved),maybe Mogreps is pointing towards something decent? Time will tell...

God i hope GFS is onto something! Need snow fix need snow fix need snow fix! I noticed the 00z GEFS seem quite keen to lower the 850's around the 10th/11th so hopefully this theme will be continued on the 06 GEFS. Have to say though im not at all keen on the ECM0z or the news that that the EC32 is zonal but we have seen the EC32 flip before so although the probabilty of an Easterly remains low IMO it cannot be discounted.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Thats NOT good news Ian,will the metoffice updates tomorrow reflect it?

cecil if you please CC Massive improvements on 18z, still waiting and hoping (and praying) for that Euro high to find a life somewhere else tho'!

Fair comment JH.

yet again the positive heights across Europe are deflecting the jet north. Until we see the back of the Euro high....

Agreed Gaz,the trouble is the starting point is ridiculously mild its not that difficult to get a downward trend.I assume the drop in 850's is a response to the ridging from the Arctic as mentioned by Bluearmy. ECM looks similar to UKMO at 144 so it will be interesting where we go from there...

TBF Nick CC has forecast a January to rival Dec 2010 in terms of severity The sheds safe btw !! On a serious note i agree with the bit regarding the Artic high pressure cells but without a radical shift in the NAO its not going to be much use to the UK,the ways things stand countries as far east as Poland and Ukraine will just about see the benefit.

Fingers crossed-i remain dubious but my God i hope you are correct in your assessment.

Looking at the ukmo no i can't Nick. I see a -AO signature developing but i also see a strong Euro high and an intense PV moving into Greenland with bitterly cold air spilling out of North America to feed the Atlantic jet. To my eyes the Euro high is dictating the pattern in conjunction with the low heights to the North west.... GFS FI at least replaces the high pressure anomalies across mainland Europe.