Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

Yes-GEM by far the better of the 12z WNP today IMO.. Much slower out of the states

Yes-i m very suprsied to see UKMO described as great,IMHO it isn't,for the reasons i have alluded too.....The block is doing its best to repel the Atlantic,but i fear it will be a losing battle,as ever,time will tell! Nope-its reduced the chances.

I suspect the azores high will be the spoiler there Eagle,look at the progression from 120 to 144h,suggests the energy going into the northern arm soonafter... Yes,gets rid of that blasted azores high!!

Doesn't look like the Atlantic is going to play ball on GFS12Z unfortunately- UKMO doesn't light any fires for me this evening either if i were being honest. Its great to see a decent block to the north east but with the PV as it is and the huge temp gradient off the Eastern seaboard feeding a rampant jet i cant see anything from the east for the forseeable. Added to that the METO further outlook and a recent backing away of MOGREPS from a potential easterly and its not a pretty picture. Obviously with blocking to the NE there is some ambiguity but at this juncture, i'm underwhelmed....

06Z shows us perilously close to a snow event or two in the medium range,the signal for snow across more elevated northern areas is reasonable this morning. PV still looks very strong though and a westerly regime still looks favourite as we hit the back end of Jan IMHO.

Well its more finely balanced than i thought! Having said that,we are still going to need further shifts west in the pattern to get any real benefit from the block to the North East. Im still favouring a westerly regime down the line but events a little closer may well spring a suprise or two for upland parts of Nortern England/Scotland. To sum up my feeling im still downbeat about the outlook but hopeful that we might see further adjustments west,the meto update will be more revealing....

Cant see much to be excited about on any of the 12z output hand on heart. UKMO just looks cold and wet to me with pressure starting to build across Southern Europe. Its better than gfs but isn't going anywhere particularly winter imo.

WOW- Only 2 posts on the GFS12Z? That probably speaks volumes about the apathy we are all feeling now,and who can blame us? FWIW the 12z going exactly the same way the previous 06z run went with zonal dross on the menu for the forseeable. Im of the opinion any cold shot will come from the North west at some point,simply becasue the scandy high is going to end up somewhere in Western Russia by the time January closes!!

Very much so.Cant see one forthcoming though C,it really is becoming very depressing.

That sounds frightening close to a Euro high to me.Wonderful. The only positive is a respite from wind and rain for the south and east.

Well looking at gfs 06z at 114h (20th of Jan) we see a rampant zonal pattern with another big jet streak roaring across the Atlantic. Its no suprise to see the GEFS/ECM ensembles looking as poor as they do.

Going to have to disagree TEITS. The pattern looks locked in to me-i'd love you to be right but i see absolutely no evidence to suggest you will be im afraid.We'll see...

ECM mean/ensembles are really poor.GEFS are just as bad. Unless the models flip in the next few days (pretty unlikely given the pattern) Jan is going to be a complete write off.

What an abomination of a a winter! Sick of rain,sick of wind,sick of slate grey skies,and sick of waking up every morning to zonal dross on the NWP. Fast approaching write off time for January now im afraid,this pattern is seriously locked in,the low heights that have been there across Greenland show no sign of abaiting,the meto long ranger is guff out to the 1st week of Feb and to cap it all i saw what was either a bee or a wasp yesterday! Whats that all about?????? Hats off to those keeping the flame lit in the model output thread but one does get the feeling its just not going to happen. If i were a betting man i'd stake a fortune on those blues and purples over Greenland being replaced with yellows and oranges come march/april.That might be enough to bring snow but for me its just adds to the frustration because by that time the sun will be much stronger and higher in the sky and the sound of 'drip drip drip wont be from the relentless wind and rain it will be the sound of any snow melting. Its up there with 88/89 for cackness and probably on reflection worse due to the ammount of rain. Rant over...

A tale of two halves at the moment. 1st half being the profile to the North East which looks nice and blocky. 2nd half being that limpet Greenland PV which is just refusing to get a life and move away! Im beginning to wonder when in Gods name it will super duper,ive seen some pretty resolute and intense Greeny Polar Vortexes in my time but this ome takes the biscuit!

And im no expert but surely we would want the 'warming' over Greenland,that still looks ridiculously cold to me? Finely balanced tis evening,definite shift west in the pattern with ukmo at t144 very close to being fantastic-hopefully the damn azores high wont scupper the developments!

I must admit the ecm 12z has left me gobsmacked but it wont be the first time a model has picked up on a signal and the others have followed. Its a huge leap of faith in view of the GEFS/UKMO/MOGREPS/METO OUTLOOK/BBC Mothly outlook though so im not getting my hopes up thats for sure.

God i hope ecm isnt playing a cruel joke on us.I mean,how much wind and rain does one have to endure on an almost daily basis!

ECM,please dont lead us up the garden path again. Its such a lovely run with undercutting galore,im going to be sick in the morning if it does a huge backtrack,i really am. Can it be right,thats the question!

Just popped in for a quick moan about the winter of 2013/4 My God i didnt think anything could rival 1988/9-i was wrong!!

I think its quite common to see very good synoptics in march/april after a mind numbingly bad winter like the one we are having to experience. We can safely write off the next 10 days for cold and snow,after that who knows but I wouldn't be surprised to see another 2 weeks minimum of zonality esp seeing the Polar vortex looking as hideous and badly placed for us with no sign of a pattern change anytime soon. One has to wonder if Dec and Jan are going to be snowless? The odds are slowly creeping down now imo.

Anyway,seeing as we have had absolutely no winter weather round here perhaps we can rename this thread 2013/4 the winter that never was....

its banter,lighten up ...

No! That is NOT a normal snow distribution in mid Jan,even countries like Poland/Belarus and Ukraine are pretty much snowless,thats shocking it really is and highlights perfectly what an absolute guff-fest its been,largely thanks to that euroslug...

Crewe- C;mon old bean Tell us where the LRG went horribly wrong!!! When I saw CC's postback in November about this 'being the one' I had visions of unrelenting zonality,funnily enough......