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Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

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Everything posted by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

  1. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    GFS blows away the block in FI- Quelle suprise,what a joke of a model it really is.... In the high res we at least see some snow events as the Atlantic pushes up against the block to the NE.
  2. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Agreed Nick If we dont see at least a subtle change in the outlook then i for one will begin to worry. EDIT Im looking forward to the GFS06Z and impatiently waiting for the misery model to correct south.
  3. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html A pretty chart if its cold you are after with a huge anticyclone over NW Russia moving westwards and a pretty significant Artic high moving out the Arctuc circle of 1040mb. The deep purples have also drained away from Greenland. I doubt the Atlantic will be going anywhere but SE moving forward from that.
  4. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    EC Ensembles awaited,hopefully even colder than yesterday with the operational on the mild side of the mean..
  5. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Erm,can i see that pic with the 10 out of 10 card please,its my favourite Rampppppppppede
  6. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Fantastic output this morning with GEM taking top prize. ECM looks cold and wintry as we move through next week. All in all the meto surely have to move towards something more wintry,surely.. wow tiets,we posted at the same time,same thinking..
  7. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    ecm = cold zonality
  8. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    How very odd,rain with the odd flake here
  9. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Not a great GFS12Z unfortunately.Very frustrating run esp with a 1045mb anticyclone sat to the North east...
  10. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    GFS pumps up the siberian high to 1050MB. Thats a very very impressive anticyclone..
  11. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Temps just a couple of degreesabove freezing across parts of England next wednesday as the air is pulled in off the continent.
  12. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    GFS 06Z has adjusted the scandy high slightly west as early as t36!!!
  13. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Hope so Steve- The ensembles for De Bilt have most certainly trended colder. Will be fascinating to see if GFS continues in the same vein as the Euro models. METO update again awaited for signs of a move towards a colder outlook.(God knows iv'e only been waiting since like November)!
  14. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Yes im not sure how Gibby can say the window has closed a little more for cold this morning. If anything the wintry charts have upgraded since yesterday....
  15. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Great news Nick- Certainly those trumpetting the Atlantic only yesterday might be rethinking their views this morning Thats ma boy
  16. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    EASTERLY flow,-5 uppers= snow
  17. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Yes,ECM also brings in some cold air and before anyone jumps in with a 'here comes the Atlantic zonal regime',yes it is zonal but is COLD zonal. Exciting stuff, could our fortunes be about to turn>
  18. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Well well well... UKMO showing very good consistency. Fergie's thoughts might be worth a read today...
  19. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Absolutely,no truck with that- im very wary of NWP until i see the metoffice 'on board'. The picture is complex though and the UKMO 144 looks finely balanced.The 12z ensembles have also trended colder. We'll see... I was talking about the UKMO run but the GEFS suite has trended colder this evening. Hence my more optimistic stance.
  20. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    The point is,they get it wrong sometimes and have been wrong at short,medium and long range timeframes. The GEFS 12Z suite and ukmo are looking good for a cold shot. It may or may not happen,we'll see...
  21. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    And? UKMO favour a return to Atlantic regime,they also favoured a barbeque summer in 2007/8? They get it wrong sometimes Purga,as do we all. Anyway,GEFS 12Z are looking very good for next week.
  22. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Yes,momentum building for some kind of cold outbreak as the trough drops to the South east next week. Fingers crossed..
  23. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html Looks good to me
  24. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    oh kev what we give for something like this tmorrow,the north west thread was buzzing.
  25. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Yes-snow is possible,that will do for me for now thanks..
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