Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

UKMO keeps the faith. And GFS 12Z has trended in the right direction. OK maybe not a big freeze but certainly the chance for some snow for parts of the UK. Im that desperate i'll take a day of snow showers.. Lets ignore the fact that UKMO would bring snow showers for parts of the UK then Bobby? PS GFS is actually a pretty wintry run

If GFS 0z comes off i doubt you or me would be seeing much snow Mr D. UKMO on the other hand...

GFS0Z is pants,nothing more,nothing less. UKMO looks slightly more favourable but can't see the 850s so not sure if its cold rain on the menu,or snow.

Thanks matt:) Always enjoy reading your thoughts- Not looking good really,oh well.We were due a mild one,i don't think many anticipated just how relentlessly zonal its been though. If i were to be honest,im bored of this relentless wind and rain and im getting a bit bored with the same synoptics/NH setup day afer day. Fingers crossed we get a nice dry summer to counter-balance this sorry excuse for a winter. cheers..

lol. Thats a bit harsh,they are good seasoned members. Anyway,ECM out shortly,really hoping the 144 chart looks similar to UKMO 144 as the following charts will be interesting imo.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html Difficult to say but at face value there is potential in this chart with a genuine Arctic high and the high across Finland strecthing across the GIN into Eastern Greenland. I know this set against one of the most intense robust Polar vortex in the history of mankind but at the very least a colder form of zonality is surely the least best option....

Well as Fergie has said,yet again,rainfall is the cheif concern for the reliable period. After that,i guess your location and altitude will play a big part of what you are going to see falling out of the sky. If your up north and have 200-300m altitude the outlook is potentially interesting,if you live in the south and have little altitude,than the outlook is probably extremely grim from a snow perspective...

Tell you what,that meto update looks spot on looking at GFS12Z.Westerly regime with hill snow in the north . A concern has to be the ammount of rain though,worrying for those already affected.

Yes K, GFS 12Z gives hope fo something wintry mid term for those in the north with altitude. Looks better than the 06z in that regard..

Hmmm bit of a dogs dinner gfs12z. The azores high wants to pull west but that PV energy is just producing jet streak after jet streak and flattening everything out before we can get the retrogression needed to break out of this horrible cycle. So frustrating!

Will be suprising if one watched the latest Beeb forecast ian!

Thursday could be interesting! Higher routes across the north in particular could get a suprise snowfall out of this. First taste of winter?

First step is the Atlantic retrograde BA- Once/if that happens all doors to cold open....

C;mon Frosty we have lift off now,the gefs 0z are really good,and the ecm is superb. I hope to see meto outlook upgrade

Agreed TEITS-Surely the meto have to take into account GEFS0Z and the ECM?

Well after the despair of GFS0Z comes the good news... ECM is loaded with potential:D And the GEFS have trended colder. Can we/dare we hope??

Dont see much 'decent' about the ukmo mucka? Maybe the zonality which will follow will be of a cooler variety but i'd imagine it will be nothing but a pain in the backside for soggy Britain(or 99%of it). Trouble is we never see them on the op runs!!!!

Not overly impressed with the 0z runs if im being honest- The opportunity exists for northern elevated areas as we head through next week but for those in the south and i dare say most of England and Wales its just unsettled cold rain im afraid. Quick check of the uppers on the UKMO 0z run leaves me underwhelmed for the friday rain to rain event. We have ECM to come but yesterdays optimism has dropped a bit,we just cant seem to shake that spawn of satan Polar Vortex,if i see oranges and yellows up there in spring/summer my head will explode with rage!

Jet looks to be sinking south to me Bobby? Granted probably not great for the South but further north and altitude could be OK...

I can understand and share your frustration CC but we got to dig in here and wait. That Vortex has to relent and it will over the next couple of weeks IMO. Mid Feb i think we'll be in the zone

Wanting to see that Azores high pulled west now. Thats one fierce Atlantic(in keeping with winter so far really)...

Well im still hopeful of something more wintry but the meto update is a bit of a disappointment really. Friday still looks potentially snowy (albeit transient) for those with altitude as the front bumps into colder air. After that its all about trends,hopefully they will be positive

Well im normally quite reserved in my analysis,so i dont want to get too carried away this morning but there is for sure grounds for optimism if its colder weather you want (and lets face it,if you dont,your about as welcome here as a cross dresser at a vladimir putin house party.) GFS has shifted quite a considerable way west on its 0z run and ukmo looks better than yesterday.While ECM isn't quite as keen on the move westwards in the pattern its later slides are full of positives. I really hope we can build on todays 0z runs!

MUCH improved NWP this morning!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html So close yet so far... Finding it very difficult to see a route away from a PV dominated Atlantic regime moving forward....the profile to the North East looks good,but the (dominant)profile to the North west looks as bad as it has since the beginning of December.