Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
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Everything posted by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
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I thought it looked positive earlier nick its becoming painful to watch and the worst thing is,it looks likely that the UK will just end up getting a damn good soaking again as the lows do their thing.
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Great. I;ll just wait for the GEM to fill my with (false)hope again then... The Atlantic is just so powerful this winter,the scandy block looks strong on gfs 12z...
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jeez 144 has really heavy rain across the UK,not what we what the doctor ordered...
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Nice SAcandy high of 1030mb in place at 120,can it force the jet to disrupt?
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Agreed to a certain extent nick but small changes can have big effects !!
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Well early doors but i think i detect a small upgrade here guys the blocking to the north and north east looks better placed,dont shoot the melinda though!
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Low in the Atlantic slightly less intense than the 06z run at t54. I'd like to think thats a positive sign
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On reflection i think most of us would BANK GFS06z,its a slow burner but the trnd is the friend and both GFS runs today offer the posibilty of snow acorss much of the UK,im that desprtate for snowi'll take pretty much ANYTHING as it stands,even if its for one day Hmmm sounds a bit ominous does that. Maybe Ian will drop in at some point to offer some more professional guidance on the picture as it stands..
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At least gfs06z gives the chance of snow mainly for the north but not exclusively so. Fingers crossed we see a correction south of the jet and then the opportunity for snow more widely. UKMO in particular is a concern, will be very interesting to see the meto update but their call yesterday of snow mainly over northen hills looks pretty spot on.
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Yes-makes much better viewing than the UKMo run.Looks well poised at 144h to drag in those cold uppers across Scandy
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Anyway,gfs06z at 132 should hopefully show the low disrupting and the energy heading south east.Im pretty sure it will look better than UKMo for sure
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I don't see a continental drift on ukmo,thats the point!!
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As i said,if im reading it wrong im happy to be corrected but the air over the UK all the way out to 144 looks of Atlantic origin,the 850's are available on meteociel and are generally -4 across the BI at 144 apart from NE Scotland which is around -6. For my money thats rain for the vast majority. Unless someone can say otherwise?
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UKMO screams rain to me all the way to 144h maybe the exception being NE Scotland. Cant see the dews but looks to be more Atlantic then continental air....
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Well maybe im reading the UKMo wrong but that run looks like dumping a lot of rain for the vast majority.
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UKMO is a real spanner in the works!! Far to much energy going North east from the Atlantic.
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ECM 0z ensembles for Reading are underwhelming hand on heart.(They are actually coldest sat/sun). They look coldish but certainly not showing any sort of Beasterly! http://oi40.tinypic.com/156fp93.jpg
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Looks about right to me? -6/-7 850's on the 17th?
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Agreed C- the trouble is the changes (subtle or not)are moving in the wrong direction for cold and are currently making the all the difference between a wet landscape and a white landscape.At this distance it will no doubt change again but members commenting on the current output is fine,surely. Hopefully more swings in the cold direction will be forthcoming..
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carol kirkwood just said chance of snow in the north next week,but lots of uncertainty - hopefully we will see upgrades in the days ahead
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which model is that jason?
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I hope so,still good for Scotland but those colder uppers really struggling to get in on the 0z runs.maybe the experts can shed more light on projected precip types,looks like mainly rain across much of the south as it stands?
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Oh dear. Models are putting more energy into the northern arm this morning. Still good runs for those up north but starting to look very dodgy for those in the south especially. Eagerly awaiting Fergie/meto thoughts but i doubt very much the further outlook is going to be jaw dropping.
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Dont want to be a party pooper CC but thats RAIN for the majority.By Tue night we're still above freezing..
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Not sure i like this run much less energy going south at 96...
