Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

Understandable that people are getting hacked off now. I know i am. Anyway,we are undoubtedly heading towards a zonal regime as we head towards the end of Jan- How long that zonal theme is no-body knows really.

The models are poor for cold and the resiliant low heights to the North west are going nowhere anytime soon. The meto long ranger talks of unsettled weather to the middle of FEBRUARY! Those expecting a pattern change late Jan are going to have to revise their expectations now and i incluse myself in that i got briefly hopeful friday with an apprent atlantic retrograde signal,its gone im afraid.

Temps around average for the majority perhaps slightly below in the SE. And then the Atlantic rolls in,lets be honest here,its hardly bumping into freezing frigid air is it? Maybe some transient snow late Fri(judging by that graphic quite a bit of altitude will be required). We may see upgrdes,and at this juncture we really are in desperate need of some!

Looks like snow to rain for the fortunate ones then.Followed by a westerly regime is the favourite outcome. Ah well,when you haven't seen a flake this winter i guess its better than nothing. Maybe the odd colder day with frost between Atlantic systems as we hit Feb.

I see the peachy charts from yesterday have vanished into cyber space this morning.:(Very disappointing 0z runs with a very strong PV and associated jet. The hunt for cold goes on,and on.

Disagree,those charts will not be a sleety mix purga.

Brutal cold over central Europe on the ECM tonight.

gfs6z is poor for coldies and like GEM and the ecm mean shows what can happen, Very finely balanced meto update as always,will be more revealing.

gfs6z is worryingly wet

Yes,GEM shows what will happen if things don't go our way. And judging by the ECM mean there are a fair number of ECM members which look very much like the GEM 0z op. As i said,uncertainty reigns.

Well i guess no-one really knows how this is going to all pan out-incredible uncertainty moving forward. We are painfully close to an Easterly in the reliable but in the longer term there is still a signal for Atlantic retrogression. Very difficult to know where we are heading now...

Lovely-ecm following gfs in FI with at last some retrogression in the Mid Atlantic. Fingers crossed a change is coming

GFS is certainly very very keen to introduce a retrogressing Atlantic high and has been for the last few operational runs. Will be very interesting to see if ECM is sniffing something similar in its day 10 evaluation..

Its a darn site better than GFS at 144h thats for sure! Still the same progression i fear however...

Yes the ukmo looks much better than gfs but by 144h i suspect the energy will be going NE with the Azores high the spoiler...

GFS is awful,less said about that run the better.. UKMO im yet to see but it can't be as bad as GFS thats for sure!

Pretty much all the of the big 3 now agreeing on the azores high ridging in at around the 144h mark with a very positive NAO signature. Difficult to see Jan as anything other than a complete write off. We hope Feb can save the day as it were,a split vortex is looking likely but thats no guarentee of cold for the UK,if there is too much energy left to the north west then its still going to be an uphill struggle....

120h gfs06z again showing some bitterly cold air spilling out of NAmerica mixing with the warm Atlantic air,that will only mean one thing-strong jet and the Azores high moving toward the BI(ALA UKMO.EC) with depressions on route for the UK... We await amplification.....

Well its looking increasingly likely both Dec and Jan will be snowless for the vast majority. Maybe Feb will deliver,who knows....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html This chart probably sums up perfectly all thats wrong with the NWP this morning-i mentioned yesterday about the ukmo run looking to send the Atlantic energy NE and we can see from the ECM what is likely to happen thereafter--- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html leading to- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html GFS offers some hope in FI but im afraid its a poor set of 0z runs for cold weather fans,little point dressing it up any other way.

ECM is very good tonight. Ens etc awaited with interest..

Sorry John i was in the shower-yes somebody has posted it i see. Obviously that could swing back this evening i might add.

And todays...25%.

Hows that john?50%Mogreps went for the easterly yesterday,25% today...