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Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

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Everything posted by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

  1. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    The deep cold over Greenland is not a precursor to cold anytime soon across our latitude i wouldn't have thought. Apparently there are more signs of a warming in the strat but we really need something soon IMHO or the effects (if not immediate) will be too little to late for my money... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html ECM 240h chart shows a pretty big block to the North east,but it also shows a stinking PV sat like a limpet to the North west.
  2. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    What do you mean CC? I thought we had a good run then judging by your comments?All i see is the high getting shunted off east and a more mobile setup waiting in the wings...
  3. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Well i for one hope you are correct C and it would be a great coup for your computer but the odds of it? I'd say less than 5% im afraid.
  4. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    As Nick sussex would say,theres no half way house here! The heights to the North East are actually going to be a real pain for the UK if we can't get them far enough west,they will just act as a buffer to slow down the Atlantic lows pretty much right over us! Pretty much as GFS12Z depicts. Im concerned for those in flood hit areas,they in particular do not need this,im thoroughyl fed up of it and i for one dont have the problems they are dealing with.
  5. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    I'd give the odds of an easterly less than 1% in the next fortnight. What an absolutely diabolical GFS 12Z. Seeing as its the moaning thread i'd just like to say this has been the worst winter i can ever remember,god we are paying for a nice summer!
  6. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Ever so slightly better in terms of orientation of the low but still looks vert wet next week and we're getting to that timeframe where minor adjustments are not going to be enough.
  7. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Agreed 100% Greeny highs are far more favourable for most. Scandy highs,meh!
  8. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    CFS is an absolute joke. Tea leaves spring to mind. Anyway,06z is another dreadful run for coldies with a series of stalling fronts on our doorstep and a very mobile setup with the high just to far away to influence the UK but close enough to slow the depressions down right where we dont want them to slow down! There just seems to be no end to that awful profile to the north west. Oh to see some yellows and oranges there.
  9. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    He's talking out of his butt,again. Meanwhile jonathen powell talking of a blanket of snow next week,wakey wakey jonathen. Him and James madden, i mean,seriously,does ANYONE read the guff they sprout year in year out.If they had any whiff of decency they'd take a hike and leave forecasting to the pro's....
  10. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    I think the fact there has been zero snow and pretty much zero frosts says it all . Ive absolutely no doubt in my mind the cold and high latitude blocking will come,in March/April though...
  11. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Goodness me GFS06Z looks very wet next week. I know the mods want emotions keeping out of this thread but crikey,ENOUGH!
  12. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Has to be said,thats a bitterly disappointing set of ensembles and thats for Holland! I think we can pretty much write off another week as far as the hunt for cold is concerned.
  13. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Blimey i was optimistic when i went to bed last night. Still time for changes again but you;d have to say UKMO has been against any Easterly right from the start and its been ultra consistent with the orientation of the Atlantic lows. The concern now is more wind and rain next week as these systems becoming slow moving as they move in from the Atlantic. ECM 240 chart looks promising http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html But there is little or no cold to tap into. The wait goes on....
  14. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    BIG flip towards cold on the 18z ensemble suite. Interesting! @D
  15. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Looks very similar to UKMO at 144 so will be interesting to see where it goes from here
  16. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Can the block over Scandy have enough muscle to disrupt the second big low incoming at 144h? I hope so
  17. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    ECM is better than the others at 120h. But look at that big low south of Greenland at 120h,i have never in my life seen such an infuriating ammount of lows hurtling across the Atlantic over such a lengthly period of time.
  18. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    I just cant figure out why we are seeing virtually no undercutting at this point? Looks primed for an undercut.
  19. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    I think its about another Atlantic low about to dump another load of rain on the UK Lee.
  20. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    Can i ask whats Ok about it eagle?
  21. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    UKMO is a disaster for flood hit areas with copious ammounts of rain as the block gets shoved way out east. Its just one low after another barrelling across the Atlantic,sick of it.
  22. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    GEM looks decent to me Hopefully ECM will side with its canadian friend
  23. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    LOL Not even a frost next week if gfs12z is correct,i hope GEM keeps the faith this evening,and ECM of course. The thing is,and its undeniable,once a downgrade starts,its like the whole pack of cards falls in,this has happened so many times its almost as if the models tease us (and thats a polite way of saying how i feel). We had a lovely 1035mb scandy high on 12z gfs and the low just sits there to the west,cant understand why it didnt disrupt...
  24. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
  25. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    The difference bewteen 6z and 12z is staggering! Is ukmo out yet?
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